Football · England Championship · 10/10, 16:00
Prediction: Derby vs Wrexham
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.6Total
Derby1.3
Wrexham1.3
1X2
Derby
Draw
Wrexham
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Derby
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Wrexham
2-5-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Derby
0–1–1
Wrexham
(2 last)
- Derby1-2Wrexham
- Wrexham1-1Derby
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Derby 1443 · Wrexham 1492
| Derby | Draw | Wrexham | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 29% | 36% |
| Market | 36% | 29% | 36% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.6 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Wrexham (rating 1443 vs 1492).
- High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Derby | Wrexham | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.8 | 1.2 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.9 | 0.7 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/20/50% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 6.3 | 1.8 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.4 / 0.1 | 2.9 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Derby 0–1–1 Wrexham
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/01/26 England Championship | Derby | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Wrexham |
| 27/09/25 England Championship | Wrexham | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Derby |
Standings · England Championship
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 6 | 17 |
| 2 | West Ham | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 22 | 11 | 15 |
| 3 | Middlesbrough | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 12 | 15 |
| 4 | Wolverhampton | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 10 | 14 |
| 5 | West Brom | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 14 |
| 6 | QPR | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 13 |
| 7 | Stoke | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 12 | 13 |
| 8 | Bristol City | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
| 9 | Charlton | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 12 |
| 10 | Birmingham | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 12 | 11 | 11 |
| 11 | Millwall | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 15 | 11 |
| 12 | Lincoln City | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 11 |
| 13 | Southampton | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 10 | 10 |
| 14 | Wrexham | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 12 | 10 |
| 15 | Bolton | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 15 | 10 |
| 16 | Blackburn | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 12 | 9 |
| 17 | Norwich | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 17 | 9 |
| 18 | Sheff Utd | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 9 |
| 19 | Portsmouth | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 10 | 8 |
| 20 | Watford | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 8 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 12 | 7 |
| 22 | Derby | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 5 |
| 23 | Preston | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 15 | 4 |
| 24 | Burnley | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 17 | 4 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Derby | Wrexham |
|---|---|---|
| Burnley | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Birmingham | 1-2 L | 1-2 L |
| West Ham | 0-3 L | 0-6 L |
| Swansea | 0-3 L | 0-0 D |
| Cardiff | 2-2 D | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 0 W 2 D 3 L | 0 W 3 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Derby
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Burnley England Championship |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 12/09 | Birmingham England Championship |
1-1 | 1-2 | 10 | 4 | L |
| 09/09 | West Brom England Championship |
0-1 | 0-1 | 11 | 4 | L |
| 05/09 | West Ham England Championship |
0-1 | 0-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 01/09 | Portsmouth England Championship |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 29/08 | Swansea England Championship |
0-2 | 0-3 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 22/08 | Cardiff England Championship |
1-2 | 2-2 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 15/08 | Charlton England Championship |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 02/05 | Sheff Utd England Championship |
1-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 25/04 | QPR England Championship |
1-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 4 | W |
Wrexham
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Southampton England Championship |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 11/09 | West Ham England Championship |
0-2 | 0-6 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 08/09 | Burnley England Championship |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 05/09 | Swansea England Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 02/09 | Millwall England Championship |
1-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 28/08 | Birmingham England Championship |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 22/08 | Watford England Championship |
1-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 2 | D |
| 17/08 | Cardiff England Championship |
1-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 02/05 | Middlesbrough England Championship |
2-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 0 | D |
| 26/04 | Coventry England Championship |
1-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Derby vs Wrexham?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Derby win (36%). Probabilities: Derby 36%, draw 29%, Wrexham 36%.
How many goals are expected in Derby vs Wrexham?
The model expects 2.6 goals (Derby 1.3 · Wrexham 1.3), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Wrexham?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.