Football · England Championship · 10/10, 16:00
Prediction: Preston vs Millwall
Team pages: Preston · Millwall
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.72Total
Preston1.32
Millwall1.4
1X2
Preston
Draw
Millwall
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Preston
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Millwall
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Preston
0–4–2
Millwall
(6 last)
- Preston0-2Millwall
- Millwall1-1Preston
- Preston1-1Millwall
- Millwall3-1Preston
- Millwall1-1Preston
- Preston1-1Millwall
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Preston 1411 · Millwall 1494
| Preston | Draw | Millwall | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 34% | 28% | 38% |
| Market | 34% | 28% | 38% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.72 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Millwall (rating 1411 vs 1494).
- H2H favours Millwall: 2-4-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Preston | Millwall | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 2 | 1.5 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.5 | 0.8 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/20/40% | 50/20/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 5.7 | 2.7 / 4.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.1 | 3.2 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Preston 0–4–2 Millwall
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/02/26 England Championship | Preston | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Millwall |
| 08/11/25 England Championship | Millwall | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Preston |
| 18/02/25 England Championship | Preston | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Millwall |
| 28/09/24 England Championship | Millwall | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Preston |
| 27/01/24 England Championship | Millwall | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Preston |
| 21/10/23 England Championship | Preston | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Millwall |
Standings · England Championship
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 6 | 17 |
| 2 | West Ham | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 22 | 11 | 15 |
| 3 | Middlesbrough | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 12 | 15 |
| 4 | Wolverhampton | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 10 | 14 |
| 5 | West Brom | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 14 |
| 6 | QPR | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 13 |
| 7 | Stoke | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 12 | 13 |
| 8 | Bristol City | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
| 9 | Charlton | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 12 |
| 10 | Birmingham | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 12 | 11 | 11 |
| 11 | Millwall | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 15 | 11 |
| 12 | Lincoln City | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 11 |
| 13 | Southampton | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 10 | 10 |
| 14 | Wrexham | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 12 | 10 |
| 15 | Bolton | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 15 | 10 |
| 16 | Blackburn | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 12 | 9 |
| 17 | Norwich | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 17 | 9 |
| 18 | Sheff Utd | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 9 |
| 19 | Portsmouth | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 10 | 8 |
| 20 | Watford | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 8 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 12 | 7 |
| 22 | Derby | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 5 |
| 23 | Preston | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 15 | 4 |
| 24 | Burnley | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 17 | 4 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Preston | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| Blackburn | 2-1 W | 1-3 L |
| Bristol City | 1-3 L | 2-0 W |
| Bolton | 1-2 L | 4-0 W |
| Southampton | 1-3 L | 1-5 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 3 L | 2 W 0 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Preston
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | QPR England Championship |
2-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 12/09 | Lincoln City England Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 16 | 2 | L |
| 08/09 | Watford England Championship |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 05/09 | Blackburn England Championship |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 01/09 | Bristol City England Championship |
0-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 29/08 | Charlton England Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 22/08 | Wolverhampton England Championship |
0-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 15/08 | Bolton England Championship |
0-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 02/05 | Southampton England Championship |
0-1 | 1-3 | 10 | 4 | L |
| 25/04 | Sheff Utd England Championship |
2-0 | 3-2 | 5 | 3 | W |
Millwall
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | West Ham England Championship |
2-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 15/09 | Middlesbrough England Championship |
2-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 12/09 | Blackburn England Championship |
0-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 05/09 | Bolton England Championship |
1-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 02/09 | Wrexham England Championship |
0-1 | 0-3 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 29/08 | Southampton England Championship |
1-2 | 1-5 | 11 | 2 | L |
| 22/08 | Norwich England Championship |
1-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 15/08 | Bristol City England Championship |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 11/05 | Hull England Championship |
0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 08/05 | Hull England Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Preston vs Millwall?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Millwall win (38%). Probabilities: Preston 34%, draw 28%, Millwall 38%.
How many goals are expected in Preston vs Millwall?
The model expects 2.72 goals (Preston 1.32 · Millwall 1.4), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Preston vs Millwall?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.