Football · England Championship · 11/10, 13:00

Prediction: Southampton vs Portsmouth

Team pages: Southampton · Portsmouth

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.99Total

Southampton1.98

Portsmouth1.01

1X2

59% 24% 18%

Southampton Draw Portsmouth

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Southampton 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DDLWWDDWWL

Portsmouth 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LWDLWLLWDD

Head-to-head

Southampton 1–2–0 Portsmouth (3 last)

Portsmouth1-1Southampton
Southampton0-0Portsmouth
Portsmouth0-4Southampton

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Southampton 1562 · Portsmouth 1479

	Southampton	Draw	Portsmouth
Our model	59%	23%	18%
Market	59%	24%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 2.99 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Southampton (rating 1562 vs 1479).
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Southampton	Portsmouth
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.1	1.4 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 5.7	2.4 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.1	2.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.57

X3.90

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)2.00

2 (+1)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.57	Pinn 1.61
X	3.90 → 3.90	Pinn 4.15 ★
2	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.3% Pinnacle margin 5.5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:45 +3’	1.57	3.90	5.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:14 +694’	1.61	4.15	5.14

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Southampton 1–2–0 Portsmouth

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/01/26 England Championship	Portsmouth	1-1 HT 0-0	Southampton
14/09/25 England Championship	Southampton	0-0 HT 0-0	Portsmouth
24/09/19 England EFL Cup	Portsmouth	0-4 HT 0-2	Southampton

Standings · England Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Swansea	8	5	2	1	13	6	17
2	West Ham	8	4	3	1	22	11	15
3	Middlesbrough	8	4	3	1	16	12	15
4	Wolverhampton	7	4	2	1	15	10	14
5	West Brom	8	4	2	2	10	8	14
6	QPR	8	3	4	1	10	7	13
7	Stoke	8	4	1	3	13	12	13
8	Bristol City	8	4	1	3	11	12	13
9	Charlton	8	3	3	2	7	10	12
10	Birmingham	8	2	5	1	12	11	11
11	Millwall	8	3	2	3	15	15	11
12	Lincoln City	8	3	2	3	7	8	11
13	Southampton	8	4	2	2	19	10	10
14	Wrexham	8	2	4	2	9	12	10
15	Bolton	8	3	1	4	11	15	10
16	Blackburn	8	2	3	3	12	12	9
17	Norwich	8	3	0	5	16	17	9
18	Sheff Utd	8	2	3	3	9	11	9
19	Portsmouth	7	2	2	3	9	10	8
20	Watford	8	2	2	4	7	10	8
21	Cardiff	8	1	4	3	10	12	7
22	Derby	8	1	2	5	7	14	5
23	Preston	8	1	1	6	8	15	4
24	Burnley	8	0	4	4	9	17	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Southampton	Portsmouth
Bristol City	4-1 W	1-2 L
Lincoln City	1-1 D	3-1 W
Birmingham	1-1 D	1-1 D
Stoke	3-1 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 0 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Southampton

DDLWWDDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Wrexham England Championship	0-1	1-2	3	5	L
12/09	Bristol City England Championship	1-0	4-1	2	2	W
08/09	Swansea England Championship	2-0	3-1	9	1	W
05/09	Lincoln City England Championship	1-0	1-1	6	3	D
01/09	Birmingham England Championship	1-0	1-1	5	5	D
29/08	Millwall England Championship	2-1	5-1	8	2	W
22/08	Stoke England Championship	1-1	3-1	4	8	W
16/08	Watford England Championship	0-2	1-2	8	9	L
12/05	Middlesbrough England Championship	1-1	1-1	11	8	D
09/05	Middlesbrough England Championship	0-0	0-0	1	2	D

Portsmouth

LWDLWLLWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Blackburn England Championship	1-1	2-2	9	3	D
12/09	Charlton England Championship	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
05/09	Cardiff England Championship	1-0	2-0	5	4	W
01/09	Derby England Championship	0-1	0-2	11	3	L
29/08	Bristol City England Championship	0-1	1-2	10	3	L
22/08	Lincoln City England Championship	2-1	3-1	3	4	W
15/08	QPR England Championship	1-3	1-3	6	1	L
02/05	Birmingham England Championship	1-1	1-1	3	4	D
25/04	Stoke England Championship	1-0	3-1	1	2	W
21/04	Coventry England Championship	0-1	1-5	1	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Southampton vs Portsmouth?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Southampton win (59%). Probabilities: Southampton 59%, draw 24%, Portsmouth 18%.

How many goals are expected in Southampton vs Portsmouth?

The model expects 2.99 goals (Southampton 1.98 · Portsmouth 1.01), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Southampton vs Portsmouth?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.