Football · England Championship · 10/10, 13:30
Prediction: Swansea vs Norwich
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.05Total
Swansea1.54
Norwich1.51
1X2
Swansea
Draw
Norwich
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 64%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Swansea
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Norwich
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Swansea
3–2–1
Norwich
(6 last)
- Norwich1-1Swansea
- Swansea2-1Norwich
- Norwich5-1Swansea
- Swansea1-0Norwich
- Norwich2-2Swansea
- Swansea2-1Norwich
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Swansea 1566 · Norwich 1478
| Swansea | Draw | Norwich | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 26% | 36% |
| Market | 37% | 27% | 36% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.05 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Swansea (rating 1566 vs 1478).
- H2H favours Swansea: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Swansea | Norwich | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 0.8 | 1.8 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.4 | 1.1 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.5 / 4.5 | 2.1 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0 | 4.3 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Swansea 3–2–1 Norwich
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/26 England Championship | Norwich | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Swansea |
| 25/10/25 England Championship | Swansea | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Norwich |
| 25/01/25 England Championship | Norwich | 5-1 HT 1-0 | Swansea |
| 14/09/24 England Championship | Swansea | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Norwich |
| 27/04/24 England Championship | Norwich | 2-2 HT 2-1 | Swansea |
| 04/10/23 England Championship | Swansea | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Norwich |
Standings · England Championship
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 6 | 17 |
| 2 | West Ham | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 22 | 11 | 15 |
| 3 | Middlesbrough | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 12 | 15 |
| 4 | Wolverhampton | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 10 | 14 |
| 5 | West Brom | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 14 |
| 6 | QPR | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 13 |
| 7 | Stoke | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 12 | 13 |
| 8 | Bristol City | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
| 9 | Charlton | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 12 |
| 10 | Birmingham | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 12 | 11 | 11 |
| 11 | Millwall | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 15 | 11 |
| 12 | Lincoln City | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 11 |
| 13 | Southampton | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 10 | 10 |
| 14 | Wrexham | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 12 | 10 |
| 15 | Bolton | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 15 | 10 |
| 16 | Blackburn | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 12 | 9 |
| 17 | Norwich | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 17 | 9 |
| 18 | Sheff Utd | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 9 |
| 19 | Portsmouth | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 10 | 8 |
| 20 | Watford | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 8 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 12 | 7 |
| 22 | Derby | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 5 |
| 23 | Preston | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 15 | 4 |
| 24 | Burnley | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 17 | 4 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Swansea | Norwich |
|---|---|---|
| Burnley | 3-1 W | 4-1 W |
| Sheff Utd | 0-0 D | 3-1 W |
| Stoke | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 0 L | 2 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Norwich (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Swansea
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Lincoln City England Championship |
0-1 | 2-1 | 0 | 3 | W |
| 12/09 | Burnley England Championship |
2-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 08/09 | Southampton England Championship |
0-2 | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 05/09 | Wrexham England Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 01/09 | Watford England Championship |
2-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 29/08 | Derby England Championship |
2-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 22/08 | Sheff Utd England Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 15/08 | Stoke England Championship |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | Charlton England Championship |
0-0 | 3-1 | 10 | 0 | W |
| 25/04 | Norwich England Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 8 | D |
Norwich
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Bolton England Championship |
2-2 | 3-4 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 12/09 | Middlesbrough England Championship |
1-3 | 3-4 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 09/09 | Birmingham England Championship |
2-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 05/09 | Sheff Utd England Championship |
2-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 01/09 | Stoke England Championship |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 29/08 | Burnley England Championship |
3-1 | 4-1 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 22/08 | Millwall England Championship |
0-1 | 0-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 15/08 | West Brom England Championship |
0-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 02/05 | Hull England Championship |
1-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 25/04 | Swansea England Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 8 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Swansea vs Norwich?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Swansea win (37%). Probabilities: Swansea 37%, draw 27%, Norwich 36%.
How many goals are expected in Swansea vs Norwich?
The model expects 3.05 goals (Swansea 1.54 · Norwich 1.51), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Swansea vs Norwich?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.