Football · England Championship · 10/10, 13:30

Prediction: West Brom vs Birmingham

Team pages: West Brom · Birmingham

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.53Total

West Brom1.36

Birmingham1.17

1X2

41% 28% 31%

West Brom Draw Birmingham

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

West Brom 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DLWWLDWWDL

Birmingham 3-6-1 (W-D-L)

WDDDWDDLWD

Head-to-head

West Brom 1–2–3 Birmingham (6 last)

Birmingham0-0West Brom
West Brom1-1Birmingham
Birmingham4-1West Brom
West Brom1-0Birmingham
Birmingham3-1West Brom
Birmingham2-0West Brom

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · West Brom 1518 · Birmingham 1521

	West Brom	Draw	Birmingham
Our model	40%	29%	31%
Market	41%	27%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.53 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Birmingham: 3-2-1.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	West Brom	Birmingham
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1	1.5 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.4	0.8 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 4.3	2.8 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.1	3.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.40

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.02

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Pinn 2.36 ★
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.49
2	2.90 → 2.90	Pinn 2.95

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.3% Pinnacle margin 4.9%

Time*	1	X	2
02:00 +11’	2.25	3.40	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:13 +658’	2.36	3.49	2.95

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · West Brom 1–2–3 Birmingham

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/02/26 England Championship	Birmingham	0-0 HT 0-0	West Brom
26/11/25 England Championship	West Brom	1-1 HT 1-0	Birmingham
03/08/24 Club Friendly List	Birmingham	4-1 HT 1-1	West Brom
03/02/24 England Championship	West Brom	1-0 HT 0-0	Birmingham
06/10/23 England Championship	Birmingham	3-1 HT 2-1	West Brom
10/02/23 England Championship	Birmingham	2-0 HT 1-0	West Brom

Standings · England Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Swansea	8	5	2	1	13	6	17
2	West Ham	8	4	3	1	22	11	15
3	Middlesbrough	8	4	3	1	16	12	15
4	Wolverhampton	7	4	2	1	15	10	14
5	West Brom	8	4	2	2	10	8	14
6	QPR	8	3	4	1	10	7	13
7	Stoke	8	4	1	3	13	12	13
8	Bristol City	8	4	1	3	11	12	13
9	Charlton	8	3	3	2	7	10	12
10	Birmingham	8	2	5	1	12	11	11
11	Millwall	8	3	2	3	15	15	11
12	Lincoln City	8	3	2	3	7	8	11
13	Southampton	8	4	2	2	19	10	10
14	Wrexham	8	2	4	2	9	12	10
15	Bolton	8	3	1	4	11	15	10
16	Blackburn	8	2	3	3	12	12	9
17	Norwich	8	3	0	5	16	17	9
18	Sheff Utd	8	2	3	3	9	11	9
19	Portsmouth	7	2	2	3	9	10	8
20	Watford	8	2	2	4	7	10	8
21	Cardiff	8	1	4	3	10	12	7
22	Derby	8	1	2	5	7	14	5
23	Preston	8	1	1	6	8	15	4
24	Burnley	8	0	4	4	9	17	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	West Brom	Birmingham
Wolverhampton	0-1 L	2-2 D
Derby	1-0 W	2-1 W
Middlesbrough	1-3 L	2-2 D
Norwich	2-1 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Birmingham (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

West Brom

DLWWLDWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Wolverhampton England Championship	0-0	0-1	7	3	L
12/09	QPR England Championship	1-1	1-1	5	5	D
09/09	Derby England Championship	1-0	1-0	3	4	W
05/09	Watford England Championship	1-0	1-0	5	8	W
02/09	Charlton England Championship	0-0	1-1	8	2	D
29/08	Middlesbrough England Championship	0-0	1-3	6	1	L
23/08	Burnley England Championship	1-1	3-1	3	3	W
15/08	Norwich England Championship	0-0	2-1	2	2	W
02/05	Sheff Wed England Championship	0-2	1-2	2	5	L
25/04	Ipswich England Championship	0-0	0-0	2	5	D

Birmingham

WDDDWDDLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Middlesbrough England Championship	0-1	2-2	5	2	D
12/09	Derby England Championship	1-1	2-1	4	4	W
09/09	Norwich England Championship	0-2	1-2	7	8	L
06/09	Wolverhampton England Championship	2-2	2-2	8	3	D
01/09	Southampton England Championship	0-1	1-1	3	5	D
28/08	Wrexham England Championship	1-0	2-1	6	3	W
22/08	Bristol City England Championship	1-1	2-2	7	3	D
15/08	Sheff Utd England Championship	0-0	0-0	8	0	D
02/05	Portsmouth England Championship	1-1	1-1	9	4	D
25/04	Bristol City England Championship	2-0	2-1	6	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in West Brom vs Birmingham?

According to our model, the most likely result is a West Brom win (41%). Probabilities: West Brom 41%, draw 28%, Birmingham 31%.

How many goals are expected in West Brom vs Birmingham?

The model expects 2.53 goals (West Brom 1.36 · Birmingham 1.17), with a 56% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in West Brom vs Birmingham?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.