Football · England Championship · 13/10, 20:45

Prediction: Millwall vs Swansea

Team pages: Millwall · Swansea

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.54Total

Millwall1.28

Swansea1.26

1X2

36% 28% 35%

Millwall Draw Swansea

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Millwall 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWWLLWLDDW

Swansea 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWDWWDLWWW

Head-to-head

Millwall 5–1–0 Swansea (6 last)

Millwall2-1Swansea
Swansea1-1Millwall
Millwall1-0Swansea
Swansea0-1Millwall
Millwall1-0Swansea
Swansea0-1Millwall

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Millwall 1505 · Swansea 1550

	Millwall	Draw	Swansea
Our model	36%	29%	35%
Market	37%	28%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.54 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Swansea (rating 1505 vs 1550).
H2H favours Millwall: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Millwall	Swansea
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.7	1.8 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.4	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.6	1.5 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.5	3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.40

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.88

2 (0)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.88

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 13:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.75 → 2.55▼	Bet365 2.55
X	3.20 → 3.40▲	Pinn 3.44
2	2.45 → 2.63▲	Pinn 2.72 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 6.7% Pinnacle margin 5.1%

Time*	1	X	2
18:50 +9’	2.75	3.20	2.45
21:52 +5’	2.55▼	3.30▲	2.60▲
12:53 +10’	2.55	3.40▲	2.63▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:52 +6’	2.55	3.44	2.72

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Millwall 5–1–0 Swansea

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/01/26 England Championship	Millwall	2-1 HT 1-0	Swansea
27/09/25 England Championship	Swansea	1-1 HT 1-1	Millwall
26/04/25 England Championship	Millwall	1-0 HT 1-0	Swansea
26/10/24 England Championship	Swansea	0-1 HT 0-0	Millwall
09/08/24 Türkiye Super Cup	Millwall	1-0 HT 2-0	Swansea
04/05/24 England Championship	Swansea	0-1 HT 0-0	Millwall

Standings · England Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Swansea	9	6	2	1	15	7	20
2	Middlesbrough	9	5	3	1	17	12	18
3	West Ham	9	4	4	1	23	12	16
4	Stoke	9	5	1	3	15	13	16
5	Wolverhampton	8	4	2	2	15	11	14
6	QPR	9	3	5	1	11	8	14
7	Birmingham	9	3	5	1	13	11	14
8	Millwall	9	4	2	3	16	15	14
9	West Brom	9	4	2	3	10	9	14
10	Bristol City	9	4	2	3	12	13	14
11	Charlton	9	3	4	2	8	11	13
12	Blackburn	9	3	3	3	14	13	12
13	Sheff Utd	9	3	3	3	12	11	12
14	Wrexham	9	2	5	2	10	13	11
15	Lincoln City	9	3	2	4	7	11	11
16	Southampton	8	4	2	2	19	10	10
17	Bolton	9	3	1	5	12	17	10
18	Norwich	9	3	0	6	17	19	9
19	Portsmouth	7	2	2	3	9	10	8
20	Watford	9	2	2	5	7	14	8
21	Cardiff	9	1	4	4	11	14	7
22	Burnley	9	1	4	4	13	17	7
23	Derby	9	1	3	5	8	15	6
24	Preston	9	1	1	7	8	16	4

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Millwall	Swansea
Wrexham	0-3 L	0-0 D
Southampton	1-5 L	1-3 L
Norwich	3-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Swansea (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Millwall

LWWLLWLDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Preston England Championship	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
19/09	West Ham England Championship	2-0	2-2	3	5	D
15/09	Middlesbrough England Championship	2-0	2-2	1	2	D
12/09	Blackburn England Championship	0-1	1-3	2	8	L
05/09	Bolton England Championship	1-0	4-0	4	3	W
02/09	Wrexham England Championship	0-1	0-3	1	3	L
29/08	Southampton England Championship	1-2	1-5	11	2	L
22/08	Norwich England Championship	1-0	3-0	8	4	W
15/08	Bristol City England Championship	1-0	2-0	6	4	W
11/05	Hull England Championship	0-0	0-2	6	5	L

Swansea

WWDWWDLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Norwich England Championship	0-1	2-1	3	2	W
19/09	Lincoln City England Championship	0-1	2-1	0	3	W
12/09	Burnley England Championship	2-0	3-1	3	3	W
08/09	Southampton England Championship	0-2	1-3	3	1	L
05/09	Wrexham England Championship	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
01/09	Watford England Championship	2-0	2-0	5	4	W
29/08	Derby England Championship	2-0	3-0	6	6	W
22/08	Sheff Utd England Championship	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
15/08	Stoke England Championship	1-1	2-1	5	4	W
02/05	Charlton England Championship	0-0	3-1	10	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Millwall vs Swansea?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Millwall win (36%). Probabilities: Millwall 36%, draw 28%, Swansea 35%.

How many goals are expected in Millwall vs Swansea?

The model expects 2.54 goals (Millwall 1.28 · Swansea 1.26), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Millwall vs Swansea?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.