Football · England League 2 · 03/10, 16:00

Prediction: Crewe vs Bristol Rovers

Team pages: Crewe · Bristol Rovers

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.49Total

Crewe1.21

Bristol Rovers1.28

1X2

34% 29% 37%

Crewe Draw Bristol Rovers

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Crewe 2-7-1 (W-D-L)

LDWWDDDDDD

Bristol Rovers 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WDLWWWWLLW

Head-to-head

Crewe 2–1–2 Bristol Rovers (5 last)

Bristol Rovers2-1Crewe
Crewe1-1Bristol Rovers
Crewe2-4Bristol Rovers
Bristol Rovers0-1Crewe
Crewe3-2Bristol Rovers

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Crewe 1511 · Bristol Rovers 1527

	Crewe	Draw	Bristol Rovers
Our model	33%	30%	37%
Market	34%	28%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 2.49 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Crewe	Bristol Rovers
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 0.8	1.8 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.6	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/70/30%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 5.5	2 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.3	4.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.30

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.02

2 (0)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.88

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:56

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.70	Pinn 2.95 ★
X	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.52
2	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.2% Pinnacle margin 6.2%

Time*	1	X	2
00:42 +14’	2.70	3.30	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:49 +7’	2.95	3.52	2.28

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Crewe 2–1–2 Bristol Rovers

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/03/26 England League 2	Bristol Rovers	2-1 HT 0-1	Crewe
19/12/25 England League 2	Crewe	1-1 HT 1-1	Bristol Rovers
12/12/23 England FA Cup	Crewe	2-4 HT 0-3	Bristol Rovers
01/05/21 England League 1	Bristol Rovers	0-1 HT 0-1	Crewe
19/01/21 England League 1	Crewe	3-2 HT 2-0	Bristol Rovers

Standings · England League 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Barnet	7	4	3	0	17	10	15
2	Walsall	7	3	4	0	10	4	13
3	Grimsby	7	3	4	0	11	6	13
4	Gillingham	7	3	3	1	11	6	12
5	Cheltenham	7	3	3	1	14	11	12
6	Bristol Rovers	7	4	0	3	12	11	12
7	York	7	3	2	2	13	10	11
8	Chesterfield	7	3	2	2	10	8	11
9	Crewe	7	2	5	0	7	5	11
10	Tranmere	7	2	4	1	9	7	10
11	Fleetwood Town	7	2	4	1	8	7	10
12	Salford City	7	3	1	3	8	9	10
13	Swindon	7	3	1	3	8	11	10
14	Rotherham	7	2	3	2	10	10	9
15	Colchester	7	2	3	2	8	10	9
16	Oldham	7	2	1	4	8	9	7
17	Rochdale	7	2	1	4	7	10	7
18	Shrewsbury	7	2	1	4	5	11	7
19	Newport County	7	1	3	3	10	11	6
20	Exeter	7	1	3	3	4	5	6
21	Accrington Stanley	7	1	3	3	10	13	6
22	Northampton	7	1	3	3	3	6	6
23	Port Vale	7	1	2	4	3	9	5
24	Crawley Town	7	1	1	5	6	13	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Crewe	Bristol Rovers
Rotherham	1-1 D	1-0 W
Colchester	1-1 D	2-0 W
York	1-1 D	2-3 L
Crawley Town	1-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 0 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Bristol Rovers (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Crewe

LDWWDDDDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Rotherham England League 2	1-1	1-1	2	3	D
19/09	Shrewsbury England League 2	1-1	1-1	6	6	D
12/09	Colchester England League 2	0-1	1-1	3	1	D
05/09	York England League 2	1-1	1-1	5	3	D
01/09	Walsall England League 2	0-1	2-2	9	2	D
29/08	Port Vale England League 2	0-0	0-0	1	1	D
22/08	Northampton England League 2	0-0	1-0	7	2	W
15/08	Crawley Town England League 2	0-0	1-0	11	10	W
02/05	Cambridge Utd England League 2	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
25/04	Chesterfield England League 2	0-1	0-2	3	3	L

Bristol Rovers

WDLWWWWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Exeter England League 2	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
19/09	Gillingham England League 2	0-0	0-3	1	3	L
12/09	Grimsby England League 2	0-2	0-2	8	6	L
05/09	Rotherham England League 2	1-0	1-0	10	4	W
01/09	Colchester England League 2	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
29/08	Crawley Town England League 2	2-0	2-0	4	7	W
22/08	Newport County England League 2	1-1	5-3	11	3	W
15/08	York England League 2	1-0	2-3	6	2	L
02/05	Notts County England League 2	0-1	1-1	3	6	D
25/04	Cheltenham England League 2	2-0	4-0	1	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Crewe vs Bristol Rovers?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Bristol Rovers win (37%). Probabilities: Crewe 34%, draw 29%, Bristol Rovers 37%.

How many goals are expected in Crewe vs Bristol Rovers?

The model expects 2.49 goals (Crewe 1.21 · Bristol Rovers 1.28), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Crewe vs Bristol Rovers?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.