Football · England League 2 · 17/10, 13:30
Prediction: Shrewsbury vs Bristol Rovers
Team pages: Shrewsbury · Bristol Rovers
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.45Total
Shrewsbury1.14
Bristol Rovers1.31
1X2
Shrewsbury
Draw
Bristol Rovers
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Shrewsbury
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Bristol Rovers
5-0-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Shrewsbury
0–2–4
Bristol Rovers
(6 last)
- Bristol Rovers1-0Shrewsbury
- Shrewsbury0-3Bristol Rovers
- Shrewsbury0-0Bristol Rovers
- Bristol Rovers1-0Shrewsbury
- Bristol Rovers0-0Shrewsbury
- Shrewsbury0-2Bristol Rovers
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Shrewsbury 1435 · Bristol Rovers 1500
| Shrewsbury | Draw | Bristol Rovers | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 31% | 30% | 39% |
| Market | 32% | 29% | 40% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.45 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bristol Rovers (rating 1435 vs 1500).
- H2H favours Bristol Rovers: 4-2-0.
- High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Shrewsbury | Bristol Rovers | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1.5 | 1.5 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.7 | 0.7 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 5.5 | 2 / 6.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.4 / 0 | 4.2 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Shrewsbury 0–2–4 Bristol Rovers
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/03/26 England League 2 | Bristol Rovers | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Shrewsbury |
| 01/01/26 England League 2 | Shrewsbury | 0-3 HT 0-0 | Bristol Rovers |
| 04/03/25 England League 1 | Shrewsbury | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Bristol Rovers |
| 22/10/24 England League 1 | Bristol Rovers | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Shrewsbury |
| 01/04/24 England League 1 | Bristol Rovers | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Shrewsbury |
| 16/09/23 England League 1 | Shrewsbury | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Bristol Rovers |
Standings · England League 2
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salford City | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 10 | 19 |
| 2 | Barnet | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 20 | 11 | 18 |
| 3 | Crewe | 10 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 12 | 7 | 18 |
| 4 | Gillingham | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 10 | 16 |
| 5 | York | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 11 | 15 |
| 6 | Walsall | 9 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 12 | 6 | 15 |
| 7 | Chesterfield | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 14 | 15 |
| 8 | Cheltenham | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 16 | 15 |
| 9 | Bristol Rovers | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 17 | 15 |
| 10 | Rochdale | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 12 | 14 |
| 11 | Grimsby | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 11 | 13 |
| 12 | Newport County | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 12 | 13 |
| 13 | Tranmere | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 13 | 13 | 12 |
| 14 | Exeter | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 12 |
| 15 | Accrington Stanley | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 14 | 11 |
| 16 | Fleetwood Town | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 11 | 11 |
| 17 | Swindon | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 14 | 11 |
| 18 | Shrewsbury | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 15 | 11 |
| 19 | Colchester | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 13 | 10 |
| 20 | Rotherham | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 16 | 10 |
| 21 | Oldham | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 13 | 8 |
| 22 | Port Vale | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 8 |
| 23 | Northampton | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 7 |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 15 | 5 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Shrewsbury | Bristol Rovers |
|---|---|---|
| Exeter | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| Grimsby | 2-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Colchester | 2-2 D | 2-0 W |
| Crewe | 1-1 D | 1-3 L |
| Barnet | 1-3 L | 1-3 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 2 L | 2 W 0 D 3 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Shrewsbury
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Exeter England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 03/10 | Grimsby England League 2 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 26/09 | Colchester England League 2 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 19/09 | Crewe England League 2 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 6 | D |
| 12/09 | Northampton England League 2 |
2-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 05/09 | Fleetwood Town England League 2 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 01/09 | Rochdale England League 2 |
0-2 | 0-3 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 29/08 | Salford City England League 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 22/08 | Barnet England League 2 |
1-1 | 1-3 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 15/08 | Tranmere England League 2 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
Bristol Rovers
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Barnet England League 2 |
1-0 | 1-3 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 03/10 | Crewe England League 2 |
0-2 | 1-3 | 5 | 8 | L |
| 26/09 | Exeter England League 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 19/09 | Gillingham England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-3 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 12/09 | Grimsby England League 2 |
0-2 | 0-2 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 05/09 | Rotherham England League 2 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 4 | W |
| 01/09 | Colchester England League 2 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 29/08 | Crawley Town England League 2 |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 22/08 | Newport County England League 2 |
1-1 | 5-3 | 11 | 3 | W |
| 15/08 | York England League 2 |
1-0 | 2-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Shrewsbury vs Bristol Rovers?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Bristol Rovers win (40%). Probabilities: Shrewsbury 31%, draw 29%, Bristol Rovers 40%.
How many goals are expected in Shrewsbury vs Bristol Rovers?
The model expects 2.45 goals (Shrewsbury 1.14 · Bristol Rovers 1.31), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Shrewsbury vs Bristol Rovers?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.