Football · England League 2 · 20/10, 20:45

Prediction: Barnet vs Swindon

Team pages: Barnet · Swindon

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.3Total

Barnet2.22

Swindon1.08

1X2

62% 22% 16%

Barnet Draw Swindon

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

2-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Barnet 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

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Swindon 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Barnet 2–2 Swindon (4 last)

Barnet1-2Swindon
Swindon0-2Barnet
Barnet1-2Swindon
Swindon1-4Barnet

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Barnet 1598 · Swindon 1456

	Barnet	Draw	Swindon
Our model	62%	21%	17%
Market	62%	22%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 3.3 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Barnet (rating 1598 vs 1456).
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Barnet	Swindon
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 1.3	1 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.7	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 5.8	1.9 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.4	2.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.50

X4.20

25.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.80

2 (+1)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.05

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 04:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.48 → 1.50▲	Bet365 1.50
X	4.10 → 4.20▲	Pinn 4.57 ★
2	5.75 → 5.75	Bet365 5.75

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 7.9% Pinnacle margin 7%

Time*	1	X	2
20:42 +2’	1.48	4.10	5.75
04:15 +4’	1.50▲	4.20▲	5.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:15 +70’	1.49	4.57	5.54

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Barnet 2–0–2 Swindon

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/02/26 England League 2	Barnet	1-2 HT 1-0	Swindon
19/08/25 England League 2	Swindon	0-2 HT 0-0	Barnet
01/01/18 England League 2	Barnet	1-2 HT 1-2	Swindon
02/09/17 England League 2	Swindon	1-4 HT 0-2	Barnet

Standings · England League 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Salford City	11	7	1	3	17	11	22
2	Barnet	9	6	3	0	22	12	21
3	Crewe	11	5	6	0	15	9	21
4	York	10	4	4	2	18	12	16
5	Walsall	10	3	7	0	13	7	16
6	Gillingham	11	4	4	3	16	13	16
7	Chesterfield	11	4	3	4	17	15	15
8	Cheltenham	11	4	3	4	17	20	15
9	Bristol Rovers	11	5	0	6	15	18	15
10	Accrington Stanley	11	3	5	3	16	15	14
11	Newport County	11	3	5	3	14	13	14
12	Fleetwood Town	11	3	5	3	12	11	14
13	Rochdale	11	4	2	5	13	15	14
14	Shrewsbury	11	4	2	5	10	15	14
15	Grimsby	11	3	4	4	13	13	13
16	Exeter	11	3	4	4	6	6	13
17	Tranmere	11	2	6	3	14	15	12
18	Swindon	11	3	3	5	10	15	12
19	Oldham	10	3	2	5	13	14	11
20	Colchester	10	2	5	3	10	13	11
21	Port Vale	9	3	2	4	5	9	11
22	Northampton	9	2	4	3	6	7	10
23	Rotherham	11	2	4	5	12	18	10
24	Crawley Town	9	1	2	6	9	17	5

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Barnet	Swindon
Accrington Stanley	2-1 W	1-1 D
Cheltenham	2-2 D	2-1 W
Salford City	3-1 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Barnet (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Barnet

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Tranmere England League 2	0-1	2-1	6	5	W
10/10	Bristol Rovers England League 2	0-1	3-1	2	5	W
19/09	Fleetwood Town England League 2	1-1	3-1	5	6	W
12/09	Accrington Stanley England League 2	0-1	2-1	6	6	W
05/09	Chesterfield England League 2	2-1	3-3	8	7	D
01/09	Exeter England League 2	0-0	1-1	2	5	D
29/08	Cheltenham England League 2	1-0	2-2	11	4	D
22/08	Shrewsbury England League 2	1-1	3-1	–	–	W
15/08	Salford City England League 2	2-0	3-1	6	4	W
02/05	Harrogate Town England League 2	1-1	2-1	6	4	W

Swindon

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Walsall England League 2	1-0	1-1	2	1	D
10/10	Crewe England League 2	0-0	0-1	6	3	L
03/10	Rochdale England League 2	0-0	0-1	5	2	L
26/09	Accrington Stanley England League 2	1-1	1-1	6	2	D
19/09	Salford City England League 2	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
12/09	York England League 2	0-2	0-4	1	3	L
05/09	Colchester England League 2	0-1	3-1	4	2	W
01/09	Port Vale England League 2	1-1	3-1	10	2	W
29/08	Oldham England League 2	0-1	0-3	4	3	L
22/08	Cheltenham England League 2	1-0	2-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Barnet vs Swindon?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Barnet win (62%). Probabilities: Barnet 62%, draw 22%, Swindon 16%.

How many goals are expected in Barnet vs Swindon?

The model expects 3.3 goals (Barnet 2.22 · Swindon 1.08), with a 54% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Barnet vs Swindon?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.