Football · England League 2 · 20/10, 20:45

Prediction: Cheltenham vs Fleetwood Town

Team pages: Cheltenham · Fleetwood Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.67Total

Cheltenham1.24

Fleetwood Town1.42

1X2

32% 28% 40%

Cheltenham Draw Fleetwood Town

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Cheltenham 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LDWDWDWLLL

Fleetwood Town 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DDDWDLLLDW

Head-to-head

Cheltenham 2–1–3 Fleetwood Town (6 last)

Fleetwood Town2-2Cheltenham
Cheltenham2-0Fleetwood Town
Fleetwood Town2-0Cheltenham
Cheltenham0-2Fleetwood Town
Fleetwood Town1-2Cheltenham
Cheltenham0-2Fleetwood Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cheltenham 1490 · Fleetwood Town 1494

	Cheltenham	Draw	Fleetwood Town
Our model	32%	28%	40%
Market	32%	27%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 2.67 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Fleetwood Town: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cheltenham	Fleetwood Town
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.9	1.1 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.7	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4	2.4 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.3	4.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.90

X3.40

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.80

2 (-0.25)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.52.02

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 04:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.63 → 2.90▲	Pinn 2.93
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.40 → 2.30▼	Pinn 2.38 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 7.4% Pinnacle margin 6%

Time*	1	X	2
20:30 +13’	2.63	3.40	2.40
04:14 +5’	2.90▲	3.40	2.30▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:14 +71’	2.75	3.35	2.50
19:21 +83’	2.93▲	3.35	2.38▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Cheltenham 2–1–3 Fleetwood Town

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/03/26 England League 2	Fleetwood Town	2-2 HT 2-0	Cheltenham
04/10/25 England League 2	Cheltenham	2-0 HT 0-0	Fleetwood Town
08/02/25 England League 2	Fleetwood Town	2-0 HT 1-0	Cheltenham
28/09/24 England League 2	Cheltenham	0-2 HT 0-1	Fleetwood Town
29/03/24 England League 1	Fleetwood Town	1-2 HT 0-1	Cheltenham
03/10/23 England League 1	Cheltenham	0-2 HT 0-1	Fleetwood Town

Standings · England League 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Salford City	11	7	1	3	17	11	22
2	Barnet	9	6	3	0	22	12	21
3	Crewe	11	5	6	0	15	9	21
4	York	10	4	4	2	18	12	16
5	Walsall	10	3	7	0	13	7	16
6	Gillingham	11	4	4	3	16	13	16
7	Chesterfield	11	4	3	4	17	15	15
8	Cheltenham	11	4	3	4	17	20	15
9	Bristol Rovers	11	5	0	6	15	18	15
10	Accrington Stanley	11	3	5	3	16	15	14
11	Newport County	11	3	5	3	14	13	14
12	Fleetwood Town	11	3	5	3	12	11	14
13	Rochdale	11	4	2	5	13	15	14
14	Shrewsbury	11	4	2	5	10	15	14
15	Grimsby	11	3	4	4	13	13	13
16	Exeter	11	3	4	4	6	6	13
17	Tranmere	11	2	6	3	14	15	12
18	Swindon	11	3	3	5	10	15	12
19	Oldham	10	3	2	5	13	14	11
20	Colchester	10	2	5	3	10	13	11
21	Port Vale	9	3	2	4	5	9	11
22	Northampton	9	2	4	3	6	7	10
23	Rotherham	11	2	4	5	12	18	10
24	Crawley Town	9	1	2	6	9	17	5

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cheltenham	Fleetwood Town
Oldham	1-4 L	1-1 D
Salford City	0-2 L	0-1 L
Grimsby	2-2 D	2-2 D
Barnet	2-2 D	1-3 L
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 2 L	0 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Fleetwood Town (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cheltenham

LDWDWDWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Oldham England League 2	1-3	1-4	5	2	L
10/10	Salford City England League 2	0-0	0-2	4	10	L
03/10	Accrington Stanley England League 2	0-0	0-2	2	6	L
26/09	Chesterfield England League 2	2-0	2-1	2	4	W
19/09	Colchester England League 2	0-0	1-1	9	8	D
12/09	Crawley Town England League 2	2-1	3-1	3	6	W
05/09	Grimsby England League 2	2-0	2-2	3	2	D
01/09	York England League 2	1-1	3-2	4	1	W
29/08	Barnet England League 2	0-1	2-2	4	4	D
22/08	Swindon England League 2	0-1	1-2	–	–	L

Fleetwood Town

DDDWDLLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Rotherham England League 2	0-0	2-0	9	8	W
10/10	Walsall England League 2	0-0	1-1	7	7	D
03/10	Salford City England League 2	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
26/09	Rochdale England League 2	1-2	1-2	5	3	L
19/09	Barnet England League 2	1-1	1-3	6	6	L
12/09	Newport County England League 2	0-1	1-1	3	5	D
05/09	Shrewsbury England League 2	1-0	2-0	3	8	W
01/09	Oldham England League 2	0-1	1-1	7	1	D
29/08	Grimsby England League 2	1-1	2-2	5	6	D
22/08	Gillingham England League 2	0-0	0-0	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cheltenham vs Fleetwood Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Fleetwood Town win (40%). Probabilities: Cheltenham 32%, draw 28%, Fleetwood Town 40%.

How many goals are expected in Cheltenham vs Fleetwood Town?

The model expects 2.67 goals (Cheltenham 1.24 · Fleetwood Town 1.42), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Cheltenham vs Fleetwood Town?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.