Football · England League 2 · 20/10, 20:45
Prediction: Chesterfield vs Colchester
Team pages: Chesterfield · Colchester
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.06Total
Chesterfield2.02
Colchester1.04
1X2
Chesterfield
Draw
Colchester
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 63%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Chesterfield
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Colchester
2-5-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Chesterfield
1–3–2
Colchester
(6 last)
- Chesterfield3-0Colchester
- Colchester6-2Chesterfield
- Colchester1-0Chesterfield
- Chesterfield1-1Colchester
- Chesterfield0-0Colchester
- Colchester1-1Chesterfield
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Chesterfield 1543 · Colchester 1460
| Chesterfield | Draw | Colchester | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 23% | 18% |
| Market | 59% | 23% | 18% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.06 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chesterfield (rating 1543 vs 1460).
- H2H favours Colchester: 2-3-1.
- High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Chesterfield | Colchester | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1.4 | 1 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.6 | 0.4 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/10/40% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 6.9 | 1.7 / 3.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.8 / 0 | 3.1 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Chesterfield 1–3–2 Colchester
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/03/26 England League 2 | Chesterfield | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Colchester |
| 04/10/25 England League 2 | Colchester | 6-2 HT 4-1 | Chesterfield |
| 04/03/25 England League 2 | Colchester | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Chesterfield |
| 22/10/24 England League 2 | Chesterfield | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Colchester |
| 30/12/17 England League 2 | Chesterfield | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Colchester |
| 12/09/17 England League 2 | Colchester | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Chesterfield |
Standings · England League 2
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salford City | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 11 | 22 |
| 2 | Barnet | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 22 | 12 | 21 |
| 3 | Crewe | 11 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 15 | 9 | 21 |
| 4 | York | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 18 | 12 | 16 |
| 5 | Walsall | 10 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 13 | 7 | 16 |
| 6 | Gillingham | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 16 | 13 | 16 |
| 7 | Chesterfield | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 15 | 15 |
| 8 | Cheltenham | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 20 | 15 |
| 9 | Bristol Rovers | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 15 | 18 | 15 |
| 10 | Accrington Stanley | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 16 | 15 | 14 |
| 11 | Newport County | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 14 | 13 | 14 |
| 12 | Fleetwood Town | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 11 | 14 |
| 13 | Rochdale | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 15 | 14 |
| 14 | Shrewsbury | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 14 |
| 15 | Grimsby | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 13 |
| 16 | Exeter | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 13 |
| 17 | Tranmere | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 14 | 15 | 12 |
| 18 | Swindon | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 12 |
| 19 | Oldham | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 14 | 11 |
| 20 | Colchester | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 13 | 11 |
| 21 | Port Vale | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 11 |
| 22 | Northampton | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 10 |
| 23 | Rotherham | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 18 | 10 |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 17 | 5 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Chesterfield | Colchester |
|---|---|---|
| Cheltenham | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Oldham | 2-1 W | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 1 L | 1 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Colchester (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Chesterfield
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Port Vale England League 2 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 10/10 | Crawley Town England League 2 |
1-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 7 | D |
| 03/10 | Tranmere England League 2 |
1-0 | 4-2 | 12 | 6 | W |
| 26/09 | Cheltenham England League 2 |
0-2 | 1-2 | 11 | 4 | L |
| 19/09 | York England League 2 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 12/09 | Oldham England League 2 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 05/09 | Barnet England League 2 |
1-2 | 3-3 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 01/09 | Gillingham England League 2 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 29/08 | Rotherham England League 2 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 22/08 | Salford City England League 2 |
1-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
Colchester
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Exeter England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 10/10 | Newport County England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 26/09 | Shrewsbury England League 2 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 19/09 | Cheltenham England League 2 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 12/09 | Crewe England League 2 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | D |
| 05/09 | Swindon England League 2 |
1-0 | 1-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 01/09 | Bristol Rovers England League 2 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 29/08 | Rochdale England League 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 22/08 | Oldham England League 2 |
0-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 15/08 | Accrington Stanley England League 2 |
1-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Chesterfield vs Colchester?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Chesterfield win (59%). Probabilities: Chesterfield 59%, draw 23%, Colchester 18%.
How many goals are expected in Chesterfield vs Colchester?
The model expects 3.06 goals (Chesterfield 2.02 · Colchester 1.04), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Chesterfield vs Colchester?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.