Football · England League 2 · 20/10, 20:45

Prediction: Crawley Town vs Shrewsbury

Team pages: Crawley Town · Shrewsbury

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.31Total

Crawley Town1.12

Shrewsbury1.19

1X2

33% 30% 37%

Crawley Town Draw Shrewsbury

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Crawley Town 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

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Shrewsbury 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Crawley Town 1–1–2 Shrewsbury (4 last)

Crawley Town0-0Shrewsbury
Shrewsbury1-0Crawley Town
Shrewsbury1-2Crawley Town
Crawley Town3-5Shrewsbury

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Crawley Town 1435 · Shrewsbury 1472

	Crawley Town	Draw	Shrewsbury
Our model	33%	31%	36%
Market	34%	29%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.31 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Shrewsbury: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Crawley Town	Shrewsbury
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.7	1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4	2.8 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.4	4.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.75

X3.25

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.05

2 (0)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 04:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.75 → 2.75	Pinn 2.81
X	3.30 → 3.25▼	Pinn 3.36 ★
2	2.35 → 2.50▲	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 7.1% Pinnacle margin 6.2%

Time*	1	X	2
20:35 +9’	2.75	3.30	2.35
04:02 +17’	2.75	3.25▼	2.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:15 +70’	2.67	3.36	2.58
19:20 +83’	2.81▲	3.36	2.45▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Crawley Town 1–1–2 Shrewsbury

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 England League 2	Crawley Town	0-0 HT 0-0	Shrewsbury
18/10/25 England League 2	Shrewsbury	1-0 HT 0-0	Crawley Town
03/05/25 England League 1	Shrewsbury	1-2 HT 0-0	Crawley Town
12/10/24 England League 1	Crawley Town	3-5 HT 1-1	Shrewsbury

Standings · England League 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Salford City	11	7	1	3	17	11	22
2	Barnet	9	6	3	0	22	12	21
3	Crewe	11	5	6	0	15	9	21
4	York	10	4	4	2	18	12	16
5	Walsall	10	3	7	0	13	7	16
6	Gillingham	11	4	4	3	16	13	16
7	Chesterfield	11	4	3	4	17	15	15
8	Cheltenham	11	4	3	4	17	20	15
9	Bristol Rovers	11	5	0	6	15	18	15
10	Accrington Stanley	11	3	5	3	16	15	14
11	Newport County	11	3	5	3	14	13	14
12	Fleetwood Town	11	3	5	3	12	11	14
13	Rochdale	11	4	2	5	13	15	14
14	Shrewsbury	11	4	2	5	10	15	14
15	Grimsby	11	3	4	4	13	13	13
16	Exeter	11	3	4	4	6	6	13
17	Tranmere	11	2	6	3	14	15	12
18	Swindon	11	3	3	5	10	15	12
19	Oldham	10	3	2	5	13	14	11
20	Colchester	10	2	5	3	10	13	11
21	Port Vale	9	3	2	4	5	9	11
22	Northampton	9	2	4	3	6	7	10
23	Rotherham	11	2	4	5	12	18	10
24	Crawley Town	9	1	2	6	9	17	5

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Crawley Town	Shrewsbury
Salford City	1-2 L	1-0 W
Grimsby	0-2 L	2-1 W
Northampton	1-1 D	2-0 W
Bristol Rovers	0-2 L	1-0 W
Rochdale	2-1 W	0-3 L
Crewe	0-1 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	4 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Shrewsbury (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Crawley Town

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Salford City England League 2	0-1	1-2	4	0	L
10/10	Chesterfield England League 2	0-1	2-2	1	7	D
19/09	Grimsby England League 2	0-2	0-2	6	6	L
12/09	Cheltenham England League 2	1-2	1-3	8	6	L
05/09	Accrington Stanley England League 2	1-1	2-3	4	6	L
01/09	Northampton England League 2	0-1	1-1	4	3	D
29/08	Bristol Rovers England League 2	0-2	0-2	2	7	L
22/08	Rochdale England League 2	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
15/08	Crewe England League 2	0-0	0-1	4	10	L
02/05	Salford City England League 2	0-0	0-0	3	2	D

Shrewsbury

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Bristol Rovers England League 2	0-0	1-0	6	7	W
10/10	Exeter England League 2	0-0	0-1	7	6	L
03/10	Grimsby England League 2	1-0	2-1	6	7	W
26/09	Colchester England League 2	1-1	2-2	8	3	D
19/09	Crewe England League 2	1-1	1-1	9	6	D
12/09	Northampton England League 2	2-0	2-0	1	2	W
05/09	Fleetwood Town England League 2	0-1	0-2	4	8	L
01/09	Rochdale England League 2	0-2	0-3	3	5	L
29/08	Salford City England League 2	0-0	1-0	5	1	W
22/08	Barnet England League 2	1-1	1-3	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Crawley Town vs Shrewsbury?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Shrewsbury win (37%). Probabilities: Crawley Town 33%, draw 30%, Shrewsbury 37%.

How many goals are expected in Crawley Town vs Shrewsbury?

The model expects 2.31 goals (Crawley Town 1.12 · Shrewsbury 1.19), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Shrewsbury?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.