Football · England League 2 · 20/10, 20:45

Prediction: Rochdale vs Grimsby

Team pages: Rochdale · Grimsby

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.73Total

Rochdale1.2

Grimsby1.53

1X2

29% 27% 44%

Rochdale Draw Grimsby

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Rochdale 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LLWLDWWWDL

Grimsby 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DDDDWWLLLL

Head-to-head

Rochdale 2–2 Grimsby (4 last)

Rochdale2-0Grimsby
Grimsby1-0Rochdale
Rochdale0-1Grimsby
Grimsby0-2Rochdale

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Rochdale 1489 · Grimsby 1464

	Rochdale	Draw	Grimsby
Our model	29%	28%	44%
Market	29%	27%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 2.73 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Rochdale	Grimsby
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.2	1.2 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.4	3.1 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.1 / 0.3	4.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.20

X3.40

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.98

2 (-0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 11:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.40 → 3.20▼	Bet365 3.20
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.61 ★
2	1.95 → 2.10▲	Pinn 2.13

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 8.3% Pinnacle margin 6.6%

Time*	1	X	2
20:01 +42’	3.40	3.40	1.95
21:40 +10’	3.30▼	3.50▲	1.95
04:08 +11’	3.40▲	3.50	2.00▲
11:28 +4’	3.20▼	3.40▼	2.10▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:15 +70’	3.53	3.51	2.02
20:18 +25’	3.51▼	3.64▲	1.98▼
21:01 +48’	3.35▼	3.65▲	2.04▲
11:05 +27’	3.13▼	3.61▼	2.13▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Rochdale 2–0–2 Grimsby

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/07/25 UK Friendlies	Rochdale	2-0 HT 1-0	Grimsby
11/03/23 England League 2	Grimsby	1-0 HT 0-0	Rochdale
13/08/22 England League 2	Rochdale	0-1 HT 0-0	Grimsby
14/08/18 England EFL Cup	Grimsby	0-2 HT 0-1	Rochdale

Standings · England League 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Salford City	11	7	1	3	17	11	22
2	Barnet	9	6	3	0	22	12	21
3	Crewe	11	5	6	0	15	9	21
4	York	10	4	4	2	18	12	16
5	Walsall	10	3	7	0	13	7	16
6	Gillingham	11	4	4	3	16	13	16
7	Chesterfield	11	4	3	4	17	15	15
8	Cheltenham	11	4	3	4	17	20	15
9	Bristol Rovers	11	5	0	6	15	18	15
10	Accrington Stanley	11	3	5	3	16	15	14
11	Newport County	11	3	5	3	14	13	14
12	Fleetwood Town	11	3	5	3	12	11	14
13	Rochdale	11	4	2	5	13	15	14
14	Shrewsbury	11	4	2	5	10	15	14
15	Grimsby	11	3	4	4	13	13	13
16	Exeter	11	3	4	4	6	6	13
17	Tranmere	11	2	6	3	14	15	12
18	Swindon	11	3	3	5	10	15	12
19	Oldham	10	3	2	5	13	14	11
20	Colchester	10	2	5	3	10	13	11
21	Port Vale	9	3	2	4	5	9	11
22	Northampton	9	2	4	3	6	7	10
23	Rotherham	11	2	4	5	12	18	10
24	Crawley Town	9	1	2	6	9	17	5

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Rochdale	Grimsby
Fleetwood Town	2-1 W	2-2 D
Walsall	0-0 D	0-0 D
Shrewsbury	3-0 W	1-2 L
Crawley Town	1-2 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Rochdale (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Rochdale

LLWLDWWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Crewe England League 2	0-2	2-3	7	1	L
10/10	Tranmere England League 2	0-1	1-1	3	1	D
03/10	Swindon England League 2	0-0	1-0	11	2	W
26/09	Fleetwood Town England League 2	2-1	2-1	5	3	W
19/09	Oldham England League 2	1-0	2-0	0	0	W
12/09	Walsall England League 2	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
05/09	Gillingham England League 2	0-1	1-4	6	3	L
01/09	Shrewsbury England League 2	2-0	3-0	1	5	W
29/08	Colchester England League 2	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
22/08	Crawley Town England League 2	0-1	1-2	–	–	L

Grimsby

DDDDWWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Northampton England League 2	0-1	0-2	3	7	L
10/10	Port Vale England League 2	0-1	0-1	4	2	L
03/10	Shrewsbury England League 2	0-1	1-2	8	7	L
26/09	Newport County England League 2	0-0	1-2	3	4	L
19/09	Crawley Town England League 2	2-0	2-0	9	6	W
12/09	Bristol Rovers England League 2	2-0	2-0	8	6	W
05/09	Cheltenham England League 2	0-2	2-2	7	2	D
01/09	Accrington Stanley England League 2	2-1	2-2	8	5	D
29/08	Fleetwood Town England League 2	1-1	2-2	7	6	D
22/08	Walsall England League 2	0-0	0-0	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Rochdale vs Grimsby?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Grimsby win (44%). Probabilities: Rochdale 29%, draw 27%, Grimsby 44%.

How many goals are expected in Rochdale vs Grimsby?

The model expects 2.73 goals (Rochdale 1.2 · Grimsby 1.53), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Rochdale vs Grimsby?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.