Football · England League 2 · 20/10, 20:45

Prediction: Rotherham vs Newport County

Team pages: Rotherham · Newport County

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.48Total

Rotherham1.41

Newport County1.07

1X2

44% 28% 28%

Rotherham Draw Newport County

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Rotherham 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DWDLDWDLLL

Newport County 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

LDLLDDWDWD

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Rotherham 1451 · Newport County 1499

	Rotherham	Draw	Newport County
Our model	43%	29%	27%
Market	44%	27%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.48 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Newport County (rating 1451 vs 1499).
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Rotherham	Newport County
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.6	1.1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.3 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/70/20%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 3.7	1.9 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.2	4.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.40

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 04:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 2.10▲	Pinn 2.11
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	3.50 → 3.30▼	Pinn 3.42 ★

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 7.3% Pinnacle margin 6.1%

Time*	1	X	2
19:20 +83’	1.91	3.40	3.50
22:18 +17’	2.00▲	3.40	3.30▼
23:16 +1’	2.05▲	3.40	3.20▼
04:14 +5’	2.10▲	3.40	3.30▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:15 +70’	2.00	3.46	3.64
19:24 +79’	2.11▲	3.39▼	3.42▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.5

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England League 2

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Salford City	11	7	1	3	17	11	22
2	Barnet	9	6	3	0	22	12	21
3	Crewe	11	5	6	0	15	9	21
4	York	10	4	4	2	18	12	16
5	Walsall	10	3	7	0	13	7	16
6	Gillingham	11	4	4	3	16	13	16
7	Chesterfield	11	4	3	4	17	15	15
8	Cheltenham	11	4	3	4	17	20	15
9	Bristol Rovers	11	5	0	6	15	18	15
10	Accrington Stanley	11	3	5	3	16	15	14
11	Newport County	11	3	5	3	14	13	14
12	Fleetwood Town	11	3	5	3	12	11	14
13	Rochdale	11	4	2	5	13	15	14
14	Shrewsbury	11	4	2	5	10	15	14
15	Grimsby	11	3	4	4	13	13	13
16	Exeter	11	3	4	4	6	6	13
17	Tranmere	11	2	6	3	14	15	12
18	Swindon	11	3	3	5	10	15	12
19	Oldham	10	3	2	5	13	14	11
20	Colchester	10	2	5	3	10	13	11
21	Port Vale	9	3	2	4	5	9	11
22	Northampton	9	2	4	3	6	7	10
23	Rotherham	11	2	4	5	12	18	10
24	Crawley Town	9	1	2	6	9	17	5

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Rotherham	Newport County
Fleetwood Town	0-2 L	1-1 D
Gillingham	1-4 L	0-0 D
Northampton	1-0 W	0-1 L
Salford City	3-3 D	1-2 L
Bristol Rovers	0-1 L	3-5 L
Tranmere	2-2 D	2-2 D
York	1-1 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 3 L	0 W 4 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Rotherham (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Rotherham

DWDLDWDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Fleetwood Town England League 2	0-0	0-2	5	8	L
10/10	Gillingham England League 2	1-1	1-4	2	5	L
03/10	Exeter England League 2	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
26/09	Crewe England League 2	1-1	1-1	3	3	D
19/09	Northampton England League 2	0-0	1-0	7	4	W
12/09	Salford City England League 2	2-2	3-3	4	6	D
05/09	Bristol Rovers England League 2	0-1	0-1	4	4	L
01/09	Tranmere England League 2	0-1	2-2	4	6	D
29/08	Chesterfield England League 2	1-0	2-1	2	3	W
22/08	York England League 2	1-1	1-1	–	–	D

Newport County

LDLLDDWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	York England League 2	0-1	1-1	6	6	D
10/10	Colchester England League 2	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
03/10	Gillingham England League 2	0-0	0-0	2	6	D
26/09	Grimsby England League 2	0-0	2-1	7	4	W
19/09	Accrington Stanley England League 2	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
12/09	Fleetwood Town England League 2	1-0	1-1	9	5	D
05/09	Northampton England League 2	0-0	0-1	0	5	L
01/09	Salford City England League 2	0-0	1-2	0	4	L
29/08	Tranmere England League 2	1-0	2-2	4	4	D
22/08	Bristol Rovers England League 2	1-1	3-5	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Rotherham vs Newport County?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Rotherham win (44%). Probabilities: Rotherham 44%, draw 28%, Newport County 28%.

How many goals are expected in Rotherham vs Newport County?

The model expects 2.48 goals (Rotherham 1.41 · Newport County 1.07), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Rotherham vs Newport County?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.