Football · England League 2 · 20/10, 20:45
Prediction: York vs Accrington Stanley
Team pages: York · Accrington Stanley
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.96Total
York1.89
Accrington Stanley1.07
1X2
York
Draw
Accrington Stanley
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
York
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Accrington Stanley
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
York
1–1–4
Accrington Stanley
(6 last)
- Accrington Stanley2-0York
- Accrington Stanley3-0York
- York1-5Accrington Stanley
- Accrington Stanley3-2York
- Accrington Stanley2-2York
- York1-0Accrington Stanley
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · York 1509 · Accrington Stanley 1506
| York | Draw | Accrington Stanley | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 24% | 20% |
| Market | 56% | 23% | 21% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.96 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Accrington Stanley: 4-1-1.
- High corners: 11 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| York | Accrington Stanley | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1.2 | 1.4 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.5 | 0.7 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 5.4 | 2.2 / 5.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0.3 | 4.8 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · York 1–1–4 Accrington Stanley
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/07/23 Club Friendly List | Accrington Stanley | 2-0 HT 0-0 | York |
| 23/04/16 England League 2 | Accrington Stanley | 3-0 HT 1-0 | York |
| 28/11/15 England League 2 | York | 1-5 HT 0-2 | Accrington Stanley |
| 07/11/15 England FA Cup | Accrington Stanley | 3-2 HT 2-1 | York |
| 21/03/15 England League 2 | Accrington Stanley | 2-2 HT 0-0 | York |
| 26/12/14 England League 2 | York | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Accrington Stanley |
Standings · England League 2
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salford City | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 11 | 22 |
| 2 | Barnet | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 22 | 12 | 21 |
| 3 | Crewe | 11 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 15 | 9 | 21 |
| 4 | York | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 18 | 12 | 16 |
| 5 | Walsall | 10 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 13 | 7 | 16 |
| 6 | Gillingham | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 16 | 13 | 16 |
| 7 | Chesterfield | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 15 | 15 |
| 8 | Cheltenham | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 20 | 15 |
| 9 | Bristol Rovers | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 15 | 18 | 15 |
| 10 | Accrington Stanley | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 16 | 15 | 14 |
| 11 | Newport County | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 14 | 13 | 14 |
| 12 | Fleetwood Town | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 11 | 14 |
| 13 | Rochdale | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 15 | 14 |
| 14 | Shrewsbury | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 14 |
| 15 | Grimsby | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 13 |
| 16 | Exeter | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 13 |
| 17 | Tranmere | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 14 | 15 | 12 |
| 18 | Swindon | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 12 |
| 19 | Oldham | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 14 | 11 |
| 20 | Colchester | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 13 | 11 |
| 21 | Port Vale | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 11 |
| 22 | Northampton | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 10 |
| 23 | Rotherham | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 18 | 10 |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 17 | 5 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | York | Accrington Stanley |
|---|---|---|
| Newport County | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| Gillingham | 3-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Swindon | 4-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Cheltenham | 2-3 L | 2-0 W |
| Exeter | 2-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 1 L | 2 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: York (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
York
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Newport County England League 2 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 6 | D |
| 10/10 | Northampton England League 2 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 26/09 | Gillingham England League 2 |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 19/09 | Chesterfield England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 12/09 | Swindon England League 2 |
2-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 05/09 | Crewe England League 2 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 01/09 | Cheltenham England League 2 |
1-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 29/08 | Exeter England League 2 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 22/08 | Rotherham England League 2 |
1-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 15/08 | Bristol Rovers England League 2 |
0-1 | 3-2 | 7 | 2 | W |
Accrington Stanley
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Gillingham England League 2 |
2-1 | 3-1 | 11 | 5 | W |
| 10/10 | Oldham England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 5 | D |
| 03/10 | Cheltenham England League 2 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 26/09 | Swindon England League 2 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 19/09 | Newport County England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 12/09 | Barnet England League 2 |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 05/09 | Crawley Town England League 2 |
1-1 | 3-2 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 01/09 | Grimsby England League 2 |
1-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 29/08 | Walsall England League 2 |
1-2 | 2-3 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 22/08 | Exeter England League 2 |
0-2 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in York vs Accrington Stanley?
According to our model, the most likely result is a York win (56%). Probabilities: York 56%, draw 24%, Accrington Stanley 20%.
How many goals are expected in York vs Accrington Stanley?
The model expects 2.96 goals (York 1.89 · Accrington Stanley 1.07), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in York vs Accrington Stanley?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.