Football · England League 1 · 30/08, 15:00
Prediction: AFC Wimbledon vs Wigan
Team pages: AFC Wimbledon · Wigan
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.18Total
AFC Wimbledon1.08
Wigan1.1
1X2
AFC Wimbledon
Draw
Wigan
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 63%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1 15%
Recent form · 10 last
AFC Wimbledon
1-1-8 (W-D-L)
Wigan
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
AFC Wimbledon
2–1–3
Wigan
(6 last)
- Wigan0-1AFC Wimbledon
- AFC Wimbledon1-2Wigan
- Wigan1-0AFC Wimbledon
- AFC Wimbledon0-2Wigan
- AFC Wimbledon1-1Wigan
- Wigan2-3AFC Wimbledon
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · AFC Wimbledon 1420 · Wigan 1468
| AFC Wimbledon | Draw | Wigan | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 34% | 32% | 34% |
| Market | 35% | 29% | 36% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.18 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Wigan (rating 1420 vs 1468).
- H2H favours Wigan: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| AFC Wimbledon | Wigan | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.2 / 2 | 1 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0 / 0.7 | 0.4 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/50/50% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.5 / 5.7 | 2.8 / 5.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0.1 | 2.6 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · AFC Wimbledon 2–1–3 Wigan
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/26 England League 1 | Wigan | 0-1 HT 0-0 | AFC Wimbledon |
| 22/11/25 England League 1 | AFC Wimbledon | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Wigan |
| 05/03/22 England League 1 | Wigan | 1-0 HT 1-0 | AFC Wimbledon |
| 23/10/21 England League 1 | AFC Wimbledon | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Wigan |
| 16/03/21 England League 1 | AFC Wimbledon | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Wigan |
| 06/02/21 England League 1 | Wigan | 2-3 HT 1-2 | AFC Wimbledon |
Standings · England League 1
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bradford | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 2 | Huddersfield | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Luton | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
| 4 | Cambridge Utd | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 4 | Oxford Utd | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 6 | Blackpool | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 6 | Burton Albion | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 8 | Bromley | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 9 | Stockport | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| 10 | Leyton Orient | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 11 | Mansfield | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 12 | Sheff Wed | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 13 | Peterborough | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| 14 | Milton Keynes Dons | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| 14 | Notts County | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| 16 | Wycombe | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 17 | Reading | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
| 18 | Leicester | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 18 | Stevenage | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 20 | Doncaster | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 21 | Barnsley | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 22 | Plymouth | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| 23 | AFC Wimbledon | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
| 24 | Wigan | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
AFC Wimbledon
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | Reading England League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 15/08 | Huddersfield England League 1 |
0-2 | 0-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 02/05 | Huddersfield England League 1 |
0-1 | 0-4 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 25/04 | Wigan England League 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 18/04 | Plymouth England League 1 |
0-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 15/04 | Stockport England League 1 |
0-0 | 0-2 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 11/04 | Burton Albion England League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 06/04 | Luton England League 1 |
0-1 | 0-3 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 03/04 | Lincoln City England League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 28/03 | Stockport England League 1 |
0-2 | 0-3 | 8 | 1 | L |
Wigan
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | Leyton Orient England League 1 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 15/08 | Cambridge Utd England League 1 |
0-2 | 2-3 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 02/05 | Stevenage England League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 25/04 | AFC Wimbledon England League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 10 | 7 | L |
| 19/04 | Port Vale England League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 14/04 | Rotherham England League 1 |
1-0 | 3-0 | 11 | 3 | W |
| 11/04 | Mansfield England League 1 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 06/04 | Northampton England League 1 |
2-0 | 3-1 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 02/04 | Leyton Orient England League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 28/03 | Reading England League 1 |
0-2 | 0-3 | 9 | 0 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in AFC Wimbledon vs Wigan?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Wigan win (35%). Probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 34%, draw 31%, Wigan 35%.
How many goals are expected in AFC Wimbledon vs Wigan?
The model expects 2.18 goals (AFC Wimbledon 1.08 · Wigan 1.1), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in AFC Wimbledon vs Wigan?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.