Football · England League 1 · 05/09, 16:00
Prediction: Barnsley vs Stevenage
Team pages: Barnsley · Stevenage
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.32Total
Barnsley1.2
Stevenage1.12
1X2
Barnsley
Draw
Stevenage
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1 15%
Recent form · 10 last
Barnsley
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Stevenage
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Barnsley
2–4
Stevenage
(6 last)
- Stevenage1-0Barnsley
- Barnsley3-1Stevenage
- Barnsley0-1Stevenage
- Stevenage3-0Barnsley
- Stevenage2-1Barnsley
- Barnsley2-1Stevenage
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Barnsley 1527 · Stevenage 1493
| Barnsley | Draw | Stevenage | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 31% | 33% |
| Market | 37% | 29% | 34% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.32 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Stevenage: 4-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Barnsley | Stevenage | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.1 | 1 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.3 | 0.4 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 5.7 | 2.1 / 4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0.1 | 2.4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Barnsley 2–0–4 Stevenage
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/04/26 England League 1 | Stevenage | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Barnsley |
| 31/01/26 England League 1 | Barnsley | 3-1 HT 2-1 | Stevenage |
| 25/01/25 England League 1 | Barnsley | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Stevenage |
| 14/09/24 England League 1 | Stevenage | 3-0 HT 0-0 | Barnsley |
| 09/04/24 England League 1 | Stevenage | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Barnsley |
| 23/12/23 England League 1 | Barnsley | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Stevenage |
Standings · England League 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blackpool | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 7 |
| 2 | Huddersfield | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Sheff Wed | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 6 |
| 3 | Stockport | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 6 |
| 5 | Bradford | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Notts County | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
| 7 | Luton | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
| 8 | Oxford Utd | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 9 | Barnsley | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 10 | Cambridge Utd | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| 11 | Burton Albion | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| 11 | Plymouth | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| 13 | Bromley | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 4 |
| 14 | Mansfield | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 14 | Milton Keynes Dons | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 16 | Leyton Orient | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
| 17 | Peterborough | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 3 |
| 18 | Stevenage | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 2 |
| 19 | Doncaster | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| 20 | Leicester | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 21 | Wycombe | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 2 |
| 22 | Reading | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
| 23 | AFC Wimbledon | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
| 24 | Wigan | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Barnsley | Stevenage |
|---|---|---|
| Doncaster | 0-0 D | 2-2 D |
| Stockport | 1-3 L | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 1 L | 0 W 1 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Barnsley
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08 | Leyton Orient England League 1 |
1-0 | 3-1 | 10 | 8 | W |
| 22/08 | Doncaster England League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 15/08 | Bromley England League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 12 | 5 | L |
| 02/05 | Stockport England League 1 |
0-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 28/04 | Northampton England League 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 25/04 | Luton England League 1 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 21/04 | Stevenage England League 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 18/04 | Bradford England League 1 |
0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 14/04 | Port Vale England League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 2 | D |
| 11/04 | Rotherham England League 1 |
1-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
Stevenage
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08 | Doncaster England League 1 |
0-0 | 2-2 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 22/08 | Oxford Utd England League 1 |
0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 15/08 | Burton Albion England League 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | D |
| 13/05 | Stockport England League 1 |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 09/05 | Stockport England League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 02/05 | Wigan England League 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 25/04 | Doncaster England League 1 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 21/04 | Barnsley England League 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 18/04 | Lincoln City England League 1 |
2-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 14/04 | Bolton England League 1 |
0-2 | 1-5 | 3 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Barnsley vs Stevenage?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Barnsley win (37%). Probabilities: Barnsley 37%, draw 30%, Stevenage 33%.
How many goals are expected in Barnsley vs Stevenage?
The model expects 2.32 goals (Barnsley 1.2 · Stevenage 1.12), with a 56% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Barnsley vs Stevenage?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.