Football · England League 1 · 30/08, 16:00
Prediction: Mansfield vs Luton
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.19Total
Mansfield1.48
Luton1.71
1X2
Mansfield
Draw
Luton
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 60%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Mansfield
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Luton
7-3-0 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Mansfield
1–4–1
Luton
(6 last)
- Mansfield2-2Luton
- Luton0-2Mansfield
- Luton2-1Mansfield
- Mansfield2-2Luton
- Mansfield1-1Luton
- Luton1-1Mansfield
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mansfield 1510 · Luton 1600
| Mansfield | Draw | Luton | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 32% | 25% | 42% |
| Market | 32% | 27% | 41% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.19 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Luton (rating 1510 vs 1600).
- High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Mansfield | Luton | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.2 | 2.3 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.2 | 1.1 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/60/0% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 4.9 | 3 / 6.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.5 / 0 | 4.6 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Mansfield 1–4–1 Luton
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 England League 1 | Mansfield | 2-2 HT 2-1 | Luton |
| 18/10/25 England League 1 | Luton | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Mansfield |
| 02/04/18 England League 2 | Luton | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Mansfield |
| 26/08/17 England League 2 | Mansfield | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Luton |
| 17/04/17 England League 2 | Mansfield | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Luton |
| 22/10/16 England League 2 | Luton | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Mansfield |
Standings · England League 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bradford | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 2 | Huddersfield | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Luton | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
| 4 | Cambridge Utd | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 4 | Oxford Utd | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 6 | Blackpool | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 6 | Burton Albion | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 8 | Bromley | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 9 | Stockport | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| 10 | Leyton Orient | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 11 | Mansfield | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 12 | Sheff Wed | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 13 | Peterborough | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| 14 | Milton Keynes Dons | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| 14 | Notts County | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| 16 | Wycombe | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 17 | Reading | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
| 18 | Leicester | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 18 | Stevenage | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 20 | Doncaster | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 21 | Barnsley | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 22 | Plymouth | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| 23 | AFC Wimbledon | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
| 24 | Wigan | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Mansfield | Luton |
|---|---|---|
| Peterborough | 1-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Stockport | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 1 L | 1 W 1 D 0 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mansfield
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | Peterborough England League 1 |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 15/08 | Doncaster England League 1 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 02/05 | Cardiff England League 1 |
3-0 | 5-4 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 28/04 | Peterborough England League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 25/04 | Huddersfield England League 1 |
2-0 | 4-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 21/04 | Stockport England League 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 8 | W |
| 18/04 | Luton England League 1 |
2-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 14/04 | Leyton Orient England League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 1 | D |
| 11/04 | Wigan England League 1 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 06/04 | Burton Albion England League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
Luton
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | Notts County England League 1 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 8 | 8 | D |
| 15/08 | Reading England League 1 |
1-3 | 4-3 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 02/05 | Bolton England League 1 |
1-2 | 3-2 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 25/04 | Barnsley England League 1 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 9 | 6 | W |
| 21/04 | Rotherham England League 1 |
2-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 18/04 | Mansfield England League 1 |
1-2 | 2-2 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 15/04 | Northampton England League 1 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 11 | 5 | W |
| 06/04 | AFC Wimbledon England League 1 |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 03/04 | Peterborough England League 1 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 21/03 | Stockport England League 1 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mansfield vs Luton?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Luton win (42%). Probabilities: Mansfield 32%, draw 26%, Luton 42%.
How many goals are expected in Mansfield vs Luton?
The model expects 3.19 goals (Mansfield 1.48 · Luton 1.71), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Mansfield vs Luton?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.