Football · England League 1 · 26/09, 16:00
Prediction: Plymouth vs Burton Albion
Team pages: Plymouth · Burton Albion
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.56Total
Plymouth2.32
Burton Albion1.24
1X2
Plymouth
Draw
Burton Albion
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
2-1 9%
Recent form · 10 last
Plymouth
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Burton Albion
2-6-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Plymouth
4–2–0
Burton Albion
(6 last)
- Plymouth3-0Burton Albion
- Burton Albion0-4Plymouth
- Plymouth1-0Burton Albion
- Burton Albion2-2Plymouth
- Burton Albion0-0Plymouth
- Plymouth2-1Burton Albion
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Plymouth 1581 · Burton Albion 1476
| Plymouth | Draw | Burton Albion | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 21% | 18% |
| Market | 60% | 23% | 17% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.56 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.8
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Plymouth (rating 1581 vs 1476).
- H2H favours Plymouth: 4-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Plymouth | Burton Albion | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 1.4 | 1.6 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.8 | 1 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 50/40/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 6 | 2 / 2.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.2 | 2.8 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Plymouth 4–2–0 Burton Albion
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/01/26 England League 1 | Plymouth | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Burton Albion |
| 27/09/25 England League 1 | Burton Albion | 0-4 HT 0-2 | Plymouth |
| 29/04/23 England League 1 | Plymouth | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Burton Albion |
| 19/11/22 England League 1 | Burton Albion | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Plymouth |
| 09/04/22 England League 1 | Burton Albion | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Plymouth |
| 09/10/21 England League 1 | Plymouth | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Burton Albion |
Standings · England League 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bradford | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 15 |
| 2 | Sheff Wed | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 6 | 14 |
| 3 | Plymouth | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 10 | 13 |
| 4 | Huddersfield | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 12 |
| 5 | Cambridge Utd | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 10 | 12 |
| 6 | Oxford Utd | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 7 | 11 |
| 7 | AFC Wimbledon | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 11 |
| 8 | Reading | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 7 | 10 |
| 9 | Stockport | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 10 | 10 |
| 10 | Leyton Orient | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 9 | 10 |
| 11 | Stevenage | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 8 | 9 |
| 12 | Burton Albion | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 12 | 9 |
| 13 | Leicester | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 11 | 9 |
| 14 | Wycombe | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 14 | 9 |
| 15 | Blackpool | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 13 | 8 |
| 16 | Luton | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 14 | 8 |
| 17 | Mansfield | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 13 | 8 |
| 18 | Barnsley | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 8 |
| 19 | Bromley | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 18 | 8 |
| 20 | Notts County | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 7 |
| 21 | Doncaster | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 6 |
| 22 | Milton Keynes Dons | 7 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 8 | 10 | 6 |
| 23 | Peterborough | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 5 |
| 24 | Wigan | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 4 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Plymouth
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Blackpool England League 1 |
1-1 | 4-2 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 12/09 | Barnsley England League 1 |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 05/09 | Doncaster England League 1 |
1-0 | 3-2 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 01/09 | Leicester England League 1 |
0-2 | 0-2 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 29/08 | Bradford England League 1 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 22/08 | Wycombe England League 1 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 15/08 | Stockport England League 1 |
0-2 | 1-3 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 02/05 | Northampton England League 1 |
2-2 | 3-2 | 8 | 8 | W |
| 25/04 | Port Vale England League 1 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 21/04 | Bradford England League 1 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
Burton Albion
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Mansfield England League 1 |
2-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 12/09 | Oxford Utd England League 1 |
0-0 | 0-3 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 05/09 | Cambridge Utd England League 1 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 02/09 | AFC Wimbledon England League 1 |
2-1 | 4-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 29/08 | Notts County England League 1 |
1-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 22/08 | Leicester England League 1 |
2-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 15/08 | Stevenage England League 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 0 | D |
| 02/05 | Leyton Orient England League 1 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 25/04 | Exeter England League 1 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 19/04 | Peterborough England League 1 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Plymouth vs Burton Albion?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Plymouth win (60%). Probabilities: Plymouth 60%, draw 22%, Burton Albion 18%.
How many goals are expected in Plymouth vs Burton Albion?
The model expects 3.56 goals (Plymouth 2.32 · Burton Albion 1.24), with a 57% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs Burton Albion?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.