Football · England League 1 · 17/10, 16:00
Prediction: Wigan vs Reading
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.97Total
Wigan1.28
Reading1.68
1X2
Wigan
Draw
Reading
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Wigan
1-1-8 (W-D-L)
Reading
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Wigan
1–5
Reading
(6 last)
- Reading3-0Wigan
- Wigan1-2Reading
- Wigan1-2Reading
- Reading2-0Wigan
- Wigan1-0Reading
- Reading2-0Wigan
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Wigan 1425 · Reading 1548
| Wigan | Draw | Reading | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 28% | 26% | 46% |
| Market | 28% | 26% | 46% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.97 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Reading (rating 1425 vs 1548).
- H2H favours Reading: 5-0-1.
- High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Wigan | Reading | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.5 / 1.5 | 2.2 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.1 / 0.6 | 0.9 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/60/30% | 50/40/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.1 / 5.9 | 4 / 5.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.5 / 0 | 2.9 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Wigan 1–0–5 Reading
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/03/26 England League 1 | Reading | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Wigan |
| 10/02/26 England League 1 | Wigan | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Reading |
| 01/03/25 England League 1 | Wigan | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Reading |
| 17/08/24 England League 1 | Reading | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Wigan |
| 20/01/24 England League 1 | Wigan | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Reading |
| 23/12/23 England League 1 | Reading | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Wigan |
Standings · England League 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Plymouth | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 12 | 19 |
| 2 | Bradford | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 17 |
| 3 | Stockport | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 11 | 16 |
| 4 | Huddersfield | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 16 | 9 | 16 |
| 5 | Cambridge Utd | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 14 | 11 | 16 |
| 6 | Reading | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 22 | 11 | 15 |
| 7 | Sheff Wed | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 8 | 15 |
| 8 | Oxford Utd | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 8 | 14 |
| 9 | Stevenage | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 8 | 12 |
| 10 | Burton Albion | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 16 | 12 |
| 11 | AFC Wimbledon | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 12 |
| 12 | Leyton Orient | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 11 | 11 |
| 13 | Luton | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 15 | 11 |
| 14 | Mansfield | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 14 | 11 |
| 15 | Wycombe | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 20 | 10 |
| 16 | Doncaster | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| 17 | Leicester | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 14 | 9 |
| 18 | Blackpool | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 14 | 8 |
| 19 | Barnsley | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 15 | 8 |
| 20 | Peterborough | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 8 |
| 21 | Bromley | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 20 | 8 |
| 22 | Notts County | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 7 |
| 23 | Milton Keynes Dons | 8 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 9 | 15 | 6 |
| 24 | Wigan | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 13 | 4 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Wigan | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| Wycombe | 0-1 L | 2-2 D |
| Milton Keynes Dons | 3-1 W | 5-1 W |
| AFC Wimbledon | 0-1 L | 0-0 D |
| Cambridge Utd | 2-3 L | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 3 L | 1 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Reading (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Wigan
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Stevenage England League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 19/09 | Wycombe England League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 12/09 | Sheff Wed England League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 05/09 | Stockport England League 1 |
0-3 | 0-4 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 02/09 | Milton Keynes Dons England League 1 |
1-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 30/08 | AFC Wimbledon England League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 8 | L |
| 22/08 | Leyton Orient England League 1 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 15/08 | Cambridge Utd England League 1 |
0-2 | 2-3 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 02/05 | Stevenage England League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 25/04 | AFC Wimbledon England League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 10 | 7 | L |
Reading
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Milton Keynes Dons England League 1 |
1-0 | 5-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 03/10 | Bradford England League 1 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 5 | D |
| 26/09 | Wycombe England League 1 |
0-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 19/09 | Notts County England League 1 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 12/09 | Cambridge Utd England League 1 |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 05/09 | Blackpool England League 1 |
1-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 02/09 | Mansfield England League 1 |
3-0 | 5-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 22/08 | AFC Wimbledon England League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 15/08 | Luton England League 1 |
3-1 | 3-4 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 02/05 | Blackpool England League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 1 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Wigan vs Reading?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Reading win (46%). Probabilities: Wigan 28%, draw 26%, Reading 46%.
How many goals are expected in Wigan vs Reading?
The model expects 2.97 goals (Wigan 1.28 · Reading 1.68), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Wigan vs Reading?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.