Football · England League 1 · 20/10, 20:45

Prediction: AFC Wimbledon vs Mansfield

Team pages: AFC Wimbledon · Mansfield

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.46Total

AFC Wimbledon1.16

Mansfield1.3

1X2

32% 29% 39%

AFC Wimbledon Draw Mansfield

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

AFC Wimbledon 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LDWLWWDDLL

Mansfield 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWLLDDWD

Head-to-head

AFC Wimbledon 1–3–2 Mansfield (6 last)

Mansfield2-2AFC Wimbledon
AFC Wimbledon0-0Mansfield
AFC Wimbledon2-1Mansfield
Mansfield0-0AFC Wimbledon
AFC Wimbledon1-3Mansfield
Mansfield5-2AFC Wimbledon

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AFC Wimbledon 1469 · Mansfield 1468

	AFC Wimbledon	Draw	Mansfield
Our model	32%	30%	39%
Market	32%	28%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 2.46 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Mansfield: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AFC Wimbledon	Mansfield
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.5	1.8 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.8	0.9 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 5.2	2.8 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.1	3.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.88

X3.30

22.38

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.80

2 (-0.25)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 04:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.88 → 2.88	Pinn 2.90
X	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.37 ★
2	2.30 → 2.38▲	Pinn 2.42

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 7.2% Pinnacle margin 5.5%

Time*	1	X	2
21:43 +6’	2.88	3.30	2.30
04:17 +2’	2.88	3.30	2.38▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:15 +69’	2.92	3.37	2.40
19:21 +82’	2.90▼	3.37	2.42▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AFC Wimbledon 1–3–2 Mansfield

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/02/26 England League 1	Mansfield	2-2 HT 2-1	AFC Wimbledon
13/12/25 England League 1	AFC Wimbledon	0-0 HT 0-0	Mansfield
27/01/24 England League 2	AFC Wimbledon	2-1 HT 1-0	Mansfield
07/10/23 England League 2	Mansfield	0-0 HT 0-0	AFC Wimbledon
04/03/23 England League 2	AFC Wimbledon	1-3 HT 1-1	Mansfield
16/08/22 England League 2	Mansfield	5-2 HT 2-2	AFC Wimbledon

Standings · England League 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bradford	10	6	2	2	10	5	20
2	Stockport	10	6	1	3	21	11	19
3	Huddersfield	10	5	4	1	18	9	19
4	Plymouth	11	6	1	4	18	14	19
5	Cambridge Utd	10	5	4	1	16	12	19
6	Sheff Wed	9	5	3	1	20	8	18
7	Reading	10	4	3	3	22	12	15
8	Oxford Utd	8	4	3	1	16	9	15
9	Leyton Orient	10	4	2	4	15	11	14
10	Burton Albion	11	3	4	4	16	18	13
11	Wycombe	10	3	4	3	16	20	13
12	Stevenage	9	3	3	3	12	10	12
13	Mansfield	9	3	3	3	13	15	12
14	Leicester	9	3	3	3	12	15	12
15	AFC Wimbledon	10	3	3	4	7	15	12
16	Luton	9	3	2	4	17	17	11
17	Doncaster	9	2	3	4	10	11	9
18	Milton Keynes Dons	9	1	6	2	11	16	9
19	Peterborough	10	2	3	5	9	16	9
20	Blackpool	9	2	2	5	13	16	8
21	Barnsley	9	2	2	5	9	17	8
22	Bromley	9	2	2	5	9	21	8
23	Notts County	9	1	4	4	8	13	7
24	Wigan	9	2	1	6	6	13	7

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AFC Wimbledon	Mansfield
Doncaster	1-0 W	2-1 W
Bromley	2-0 W	2-1 W
Burton Albion	1-4 L	2-2 D
Reading	0-0 D	0-5 L
Huddersfield	0-3 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AFC Wimbledon

LDWLWWDDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Sheff Wed England League 1	0-3	0-5	4	3	L
10/10	Plymouth England League 1	1-1	1-2	9	1	L
26/09	Cambridge Utd England League 1	1-0	1-1	1	4	D
17/09	Milton Keynes Dons England League 1	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
12/09	Doncaster England League 1	1-0	1-0	6	7	W
07/09	Bromley England League 1	1-0	2-0	4	2	W
02/09	Burton Albion England League 1	1-2	1-4	7	2	L
30/08	Wigan England League 1	0-0	1-0	6	8	W
22/08	Reading England League 1	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
15/08	Huddersfield England League 1	0-2	0-3	5	4	L

Mansfield

WWLWLLDDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/10	Oxford Utd England League 1	0-1	1-1	11	6	D
10/10	Bromley England League 1	1-1	2-1	7	7	W
19/09	Burton Albion England League 1	1-2	2-2	5	6	D
12/09	Huddersfield England League 1	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
05/09	Bradford England League 1	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
02/09	Reading England League 1	0-3	0-5	2	1	L
30/08	Luton England League 1	3-0	5-2	4	6	W
22/08	Peterborough England League 1	0-0	1-2	–	–	L
15/08	Doncaster England League 1	1-0	2-1	7	3	W
02/05	Cardiff England League 1	3-0	5-4	6	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AFC Wimbledon vs Mansfield?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Mansfield win (39%). Probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 32%, draw 29%, Mansfield 39%.

How many goals are expected in AFC Wimbledon vs Mansfield?

The model expects 2.46 goals (AFC Wimbledon 1.16 · Mansfield 1.3), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in AFC Wimbledon vs Mansfield?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.