Football · England League 1 · 27/10, 20:45
Prediction: Luton vs Doncaster
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.74Total
Luton1.85
Doncaster0.89
1X2
Luton
Draw
Doncaster
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Luton
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Doncaster
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Luton
3–2–1
Doncaster
(6 last)
- Doncaster1-1Luton
- Luton1-0Doncaster
- Luton4-0Doncaster
- Doncaster2-1Luton
- Doncaster1-1Luton
- Luton3-1Doncaster
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Luton 1523 · Doncaster 1487
| Luton | Draw | Doncaster | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 24% | 17% |
| Market | 60% | 22% | 18% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.74 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Luton: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 12.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Luton | Doncaster | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1.6 | 1.1 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.8 | 0.5 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 4.1 / 6.9 | 2.6 / 5.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.2 | 4.1 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Luton 3–2–1 Doncaster
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/03/26 England League 1 | Doncaster | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Luton |
| 27/09/25 England League 1 | Luton | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Doncaster |
| 23/03/19 England League 1 | Luton | 4-0 HT 1-0 | Doncaster |
| 08/09/18 England League 1 | Doncaster | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Luton |
| 18/02/17 England League 2 | Doncaster | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Luton |
| 24/09/16 England League 2 | Luton | 3-1 HT 2-1 | Doncaster |
Standings · England League 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Huddersfield | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 24 | 11 | 25 |
| 2 | Stockport | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 12 | 23 |
| 3 | Bradford | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 5 | 22 |
| 4 | Plymouth | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 19 | 22 |
| 5 | Reading | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 25 | 13 | 21 |
| 6 | Cambridge Utd | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 20 | 17 | 20 |
| 7 | Oxford Utd | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 18 | 10 | 19 |
| 8 | Sheff Wed | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 12 | 18 |
| 9 | Mansfield | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 16 | 18 |
| 10 | Luton | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 21 | 19 | 17 |
| 11 | Burton Albion | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 18 | 19 | 17 |
| 12 | Stevenage | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 11 | 15 |
| 13 | Leicester | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 17 | 15 |
| 14 | Wycombe | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 19 | 23 | 15 |
| 15 | Leyton Orient | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 14 | 14 |
| 16 | AFC Wimbledon | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 19 | 13 |
| 17 | Doncaster | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 13 | 12 |
| 18 | Milton Keynes Dons | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 12 | 18 | 12 |
| 19 | Notts County | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 14 | 11 |
| 20 | Blackpool | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 20 | 11 |
| 21 | Peterborough | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 21 | 10 |
| 22 | Bromley | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 26 | 9 |
| 23 | Barnsley | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 11 | 21 | 8 |
| 24 | Wigan | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 17 | 7 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Luton | Doncaster |
|---|---|---|
| Leicester | 2-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Barnsley | 2-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Stevenage | 1-2 L | 2-2 D |
| Stockport | 2-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Notts County | 2-2 D | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 1 L | 0 W 3 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Luton (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Luton
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Leicester England League 1 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 20/10 | Barnsley England League 1 |
2-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 17/10 | Milton Keynes Dons England League 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 10/10 | Wycombe England League 1 |
2-0 | 4-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 19/09 | Bradford England League 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 14 | 7 | L |
| 10/09 | Stevenage England League 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 05/09 | Leyton Orient England League 1 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 02/09 | Stockport England League 1 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 30/08 | Mansfield England League 1 |
0-3 | 2-5 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 22/08 | Notts County England League 1 |
1-1 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
Doncaster
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Sheff Wed England League 1 |
2-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 20/10 | Stockport England League 1 |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 17/10 | Leicester England League 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 10/10 | Burton Albion England League 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 19/09 | Peterborough England League 1 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 12/09 | AFC Wimbledon England League 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 05/09 | Plymouth England League 1 |
0-1 | 2-3 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 01/09 | Notts County England League 1 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 29/08 | Stevenage England League 1 |
0-0 | 2-2 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 22/08 | Barnsley England League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Luton vs Doncaster?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Luton win (60%). Probabilities: Luton 60%, draw 23%, Doncaster 17%.
How many goals are expected in Luton vs Doncaster?
The model expects 2.74 goals (Luton 1.85 · Doncaster 0.89), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Luton vs Doncaster?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.