Football · England League 1 · 20/10, 20:45

Prediction: Stevenage vs Plymouth

Team pages: Stevenage · Plymouth

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.69Total

Stevenage1.35

Plymouth1.35

1X2

36% 28% 36%

Stevenage Draw Plymouth

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Stevenage 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LDLDDWWLWL

Plymouth 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

DWLWWWLWWL

Head-to-head

Stevenage 0–1–5 Plymouth (6 last)

Plymouth1-0Stevenage
Stevenage1-1Plymouth
Stevenage1-2Plymouth
Plymouth2-1Stevenage
Plymouth1-0Stevenage
Plymouth4-2Stevenage

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Stevenage 1516 · Plymouth 1533

	Stevenage	Draw	Plymouth
Our model	36%	28%	36%
Market	36%	28%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.69 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Plymouth: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Stevenage	Plymouth
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.2	1.7 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.3	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/80/10%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.7	1.9 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0	3.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.30

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.93

2 (0)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.51.93

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 21:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.75 → 2.55▼	Pinn 2.66 ★
X	3.25 → 3.30▲	Pinn 3.35
2	2.38 → 2.55▲	Pinn 2.63

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 8.7% Pinnacle margin 5.5%

Time*	1	X	2
20:10 +32’	2.75	3.25	2.38
21:43 +6’	2.55▼	3.30▲	2.55▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:16 +67’	2.64	3.34	2.66
11:08 +24’	2.66▲	3.35▲	2.63▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Stevenage 0–1–5 Plymouth

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/03/26 England League 1	Plymouth	1-0 HT 0-0	Stevenage
01/01/26 England League 1	Stevenage	1-1 HT 0-0	Plymouth
25/01/20 England League 2	Stevenage	1-2 HT 0-0	Plymouth
29/12/19 England League 2	Plymouth	2-1 HT 1-0	Stevenage
10/11/18 England FA Cup	Plymouth	1-0 HT 0-0	Stevenage
14/01/17 England League 2	Plymouth	4-2 HT 2-2	Stevenage

Standings · England League 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bradford	10	6	2	2	10	5	20
2	Stockport	10	6	1	3	21	11	19
3	Huddersfield	10	5	4	1	18	9	19
4	Plymouth	11	6	1	4	18	14	19
5	Cambridge Utd	10	5	4	1	16	12	19
6	Sheff Wed	9	5	3	1	20	8	18
7	Reading	10	4	3	3	22	12	15
8	Oxford Utd	8	4	3	1	16	9	15
9	Leyton Orient	10	4	2	4	15	11	14
10	Burton Albion	11	3	4	4	16	18	13
11	Wycombe	10	3	4	3	16	20	13
12	Stevenage	9	3	3	3	12	10	12
13	Mansfield	9	3	3	3	13	15	12
14	Leicester	9	3	3	3	12	15	12
15	AFC Wimbledon	10	3	3	4	7	15	12
16	Luton	9	3	2	4	17	17	11
17	Doncaster	9	2	3	4	10	11	9
18	Milton Keynes Dons	9	1	6	2	11	16	9
19	Peterborough	10	2	3	5	9	16	9
20	Blackpool	9	2	2	5	13	16	8
21	Barnsley	9	2	2	5	9	17	8
22	Bromley	9	2	2	5	9	21	8
23	Notts County	9	1	4	4	8	13	7
24	Wigan	9	2	1	6	6	13	7

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Stevenage	Plymouth
Bradford	0-2 L	2-0 W
Leyton Orient	0-1 L	2-0 W
Barnsley	5-1 W	3-0 W
Doncaster	2-2 D	3-2 W
Burton Albion	1-1 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	4 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Plymouth (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Stevenage

LDLDDWWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Bradford England League 1	0-0	0-2	3	2	L
10/10	Wigan England League 1	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
19/09	Leyton Orient England League 1	0-0	0-1	6	4	L
10/09	Luton England League 1	1-0	2-1	2	7	W
05/09	Barnsley England League 1	1-1	5-1	3	3	W
01/09	Peterborough England League 1	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
29/08	Doncaster England League 1	0-0	2-2	9	3	D
22/08	Oxford Utd England League 1	0-0	1-2	–	–	L
15/08	Burton Albion England League 1	0-0	1-1	0	0	D
13/05	Stockport England League 1	0-2	0-2	5	3	L

Plymouth

DWLWWWLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Huddersfield England League 1	0-1	0-2	2	0	L
10/10	AFC Wimbledon England League 1	1-1	2-1	4	1	W
03/10	Leyton Orient England League 1	0-0	2-0	6	4	W
26/09	Burton Albion England League 1	0-0	0-1	3	6	L
19/09	Blackpool England League 1	1-1	4-2	8	3	W
12/09	Barnsley England League 1	2-0	3-0	4	4	W
05/09	Doncaster England League 1	1-0	3-2	3	3	W
01/09	Leicester England League 1	0-2	0-2	9	4	L
29/08	Bradford England League 1	1-0	2-0	8	3	W
22/08	Wycombe England League 1	1-0	1-1	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Stevenage vs Plymouth?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Stevenage win (36%). Probabilities: Stevenage 36%, draw 28%, Plymouth 36%.

How many goals are expected in Stevenage vs Plymouth?

The model expects 2.69 goals (Stevenage 1.35 · Plymouth 1.35), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Plymouth?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.