Football · England League 1 · 21/10, 21:00

Prediction: Reading vs Leyton Orient

Team pages: Reading · Leyton Orient

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.98Total

Reading1.99

Leyton Orient0.99

1X2

60% 23% 17%

Reading Draw Leyton Orient

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Reading 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LDWWLWDDWL

Leyton Orient 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWLWDLWLDW

Head-to-head

Reading 1–1–4 Leyton Orient (6 last)

Leyton Orient3-1Reading
Reading2-1Leyton Orient
Leyton Orient2-0Reading
Reading0-1Leyton Orient
Reading1-1Leyton Orient
Leyton Orient2-1Reading

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Reading 1493 · Leyton Orient 1501

	Reading	Draw	Leyton Orient
Our model	60%	23%	17%
Market	60%	23%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 2.98 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Leyton Orient: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Reading	Leyton Orient
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.2	1.5 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.2	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.9 / 5.4	2.2 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0	4.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.53

X4.00

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.95

2 (+1)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.05

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.53	Bet365 1.53
X	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.37 ★
2	5.25 → 5.25	Pinn 5.72

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.3% Pinnacle margin 6.2%

Time*	1	X	2
20:45 +3’	1.53	4.00	5.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:15 +77’	1.58	4.24	5.21
20:07 +40’	1.51▼	4.38▲	5.74▲
11:15 +20’	1.52▲	4.37▼	5.72▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Reading 1–1–4 Leyton Orient

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/01/26 England League 1	Leyton Orient	3-1 HT 1-0	Reading
20/09/25 England League 1	Reading	2-1 HT 1-0	Leyton Orient
25/01/25 England League 1	Leyton Orient	2-0 HT 1-0	Reading
14/09/24 England League 1	Reading	0-1 HT 0-1	Leyton Orient
27/01/24 England League 1	Reading	1-1 HT 1-1	Leyton Orient
07/10/23 England League 1	Leyton Orient	2-1 HT 1-1	Reading

Standings · England League 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bradford	10	6	2	2	10	5	20
2	Stockport	10	6	1	3	21	11	19
3	Huddersfield	10	5	4	1	18	9	19
4	Plymouth	11	6	1	4	18	14	19
5	Cambridge Utd	10	5	4	1	16	12	19
6	Sheff Wed	9	5	3	1	20	8	18
7	Reading	10	4	3	3	22	12	15
8	Oxford Utd	8	4	3	1	16	9	15
9	Leyton Orient	10	4	2	4	15	11	14
10	Burton Albion	11	3	4	4	16	18	13
11	Wycombe	10	3	4	3	16	20	13
12	Stevenage	9	3	3	3	12	10	12
13	Mansfield	9	3	3	3	13	15	12
14	Leicester	9	3	3	3	12	15	12
15	AFC Wimbledon	10	3	3	4	7	15	12
16	Luton	9	3	2	4	17	17	11
17	Doncaster	9	2	3	4	10	11	9
18	Milton Keynes Dons	9	1	6	2	11	16	9
19	Peterborough	10	2	3	5	9	16	9
20	Blackpool	9	2	2	5	13	16	8
21	Barnsley	9	2	2	5	9	17	8
22	Bromley	9	2	2	5	9	21	8
23	Notts County	9	1	4	4	8	13	7
24	Wigan	9	2	1	6	6	13	7

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Reading	Leyton Orient
Wigan	0-1 L	2-0 W
Bradford	1-1 D	0-0 D
Wycombe	2-2 D	2-3 L
Blackpool	3-1 W	2-0 W
Luton	3-4 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Leyton Orient (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Reading

LDWWLWDDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Wigan England League 1	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
10/10	Milton Keynes Dons England League 1	1-0	5-1	5	2	W
03/10	Bradford England League 1	0-1	1-1	9	5	D
26/09	Wycombe England League 1	0-0	2-2	7	5	D
19/09	Notts County England League 1	0-0	2-0	4	3	W
12/09	Cambridge Utd England League 1	1-0	1-2	3	3	L
05/09	Blackpool England League 1	1-0	3-1	6	1	W
02/09	Mansfield England League 1	3-0	5-0	5	1	W
22/08	AFC Wimbledon England League 1	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
15/08	Luton England League 1	3-1	3-4	5	3	L

Leyton Orient

LWLWDLWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Blackpool England League 1	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
10/10	Bradford England League 1	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
03/10	Plymouth England League 1	0-0	0-2	4	4	L
19/09	Stevenage England League 1	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
12/09	Wycombe England League 1	1-2	2-3	6	3	L
05/09	Luton England League 1	1-1	1-1	2	6	D
01/09	Bromley England League 1	1-0	5-0	4	5	W
29/08	Barnsley England League 1	0-1	1-3	4	8	L
22/08	Wigan England League 1	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
15/08	Sheff Wed England League 1	1-1	1-2	5	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Reading vs Leyton Orient?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Reading win (60%). Probabilities: Reading 60%, draw 23%, Leyton Orient 17%.

How many goals are expected in Reading vs Leyton Orient?

The model expects 2.98 goals (Reading 1.99 · Leyton Orient 0.99), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Reading vs Leyton Orient?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.