Football · England League 1 · 31/10, 16:00

Prediction: Milton Keynes Dons vs Doncaster

Team pages: Milton Keynes Dons · Doncaster

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.63Total

Milton Keynes Dons1.37

Doncaster1.26

1X2

39% 28% 34%

Milton Keynes Dons Draw Doncaster

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Milton Keynes Dons 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DDLDDDLWLW

Doncaster 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DDDLLWWLLW

Head-to-head

Milton Keynes Dons 1–1–4 Doncaster (6 last)

Doncaster3-1Milton Keynes Dons
Doncaster2-1Milton Keynes Dons
Milton Keynes Dons1-1Doncaster
Doncaster3-0Milton Keynes Dons
Milton Keynes Dons2-1Doncaster
Milton Keynes Dons0-1Doncaster

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Milton Keynes Dons 1515 · Doncaster 1486

	Milton Keynes Dons	Draw	Doncaster
Our model	38%	29%	33%
Market	39%	27%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.63 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Doncaster: 4-1-1.
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Milton Keynes Dons	Doncaster
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.6	1.1 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.1	2.6 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0	4.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.35

X3.40

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:41

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9%

Time*	1	X	2
00:37 +4’	2.35	3.40	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Milton Keynes Dons 1–1–4 Doncaster

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/07/25 UK Friendlies	Doncaster	3-1 HT 3-1	Milton Keynes Dons
01/02/25 England League 2	Doncaster	2-1 HT 1-0	Milton Keynes Dons
21/09/24 England League 2	Milton Keynes Dons	1-1 HT 1-0	Doncaster
01/01/24 England League 2	Doncaster	3-0 HT 3-0	Milton Keynes Dons
26/08/23 England League 2	Milton Keynes Dons	2-1 HT 2-0	Doncaster
22/01/22 England League 1	Milton Keynes Dons	0-1 HT 0-1	Doncaster

Standings · England League 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Huddersfield	12	7	4	1	24	11	25
2	Stockport	12	7	2	3	24	12	23
3	Bradford	12	6	4	2	10	5	22
4	Plymouth	13	7	1	5	21	19	22
5	Reading	12	6	3	3	25	13	21
6	Cambridge Utd	12	5	5	2	20	17	20
7	Oxford Utd	10	5	4	1	18	10	19
8	Sheff Wed	11	5	3	3	20	12	18
9	Mansfield	11	5	3	3	20	16	18
10	Luton	11	5	2	4	21	19	17
11	Burton Albion	13	4	5	4	18	19	17
12	Stevenage	11	4	3	4	15	11	15
13	Leicester	11	4	3	4	17	17	15
14	Wycombe	12	3	6	3	19	23	15
15	Leyton Orient	12	4	2	6	16	14	14
16	AFC Wimbledon	12	3	4	5	8	19	13
17	Doncaster	11	3	3	5	12	13	12
18	Milton Keynes Dons	11	2	6	3	12	18	12
19	Notts County	11	2	5	4	11	14	11
20	Blackpool	11	3	2	6	16	20	11
21	Peterborough	12	2	4	6	11	21	10
22	Bromley	11	2	3	6	10	26	9
23	Barnsley	11	2	2	7	11	21	8
24	Wigan	11	2	1	8	8	17	7

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Milton Keynes Dons	Doncaster
Stevenage	1-0 W	2-2 D
AFC Wimbledon	0-0 D	0-1 L
Peterborough	1-1 D	2-0 W
Leicester	0-0 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Milton Keynes Dons (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Milton Keynes Dons

DDLDDDLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Stevenage England League 1	0-0	1-0	9	5	W
20/10	Blackpool England League 1	0-0	0-2	4	4	L
17/10	Luton England League 1	1-0	2-1	5	2	W
10/10	Reading England League 1	0-1	1-5	2	2	L
17/09	AFC Wimbledon England League 1	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
12/09	Peterborough England League 1	1-0	1-1	6	2	D
05/09	Wycombe England League 1	0-2	3-3	5	3	D
02/09	Wigan England League 1	0-1	1-3	5	4	L
29/08	Leicester England League 1	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
22/08	Huddersfield England League 1	0-1	1-1	–	–	D

Doncaster

DDDLLWWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Sheff Wed England League 1	2-0	2-0	9	3	W
20/10	Stockport England League 1	0-0	0-2	2	4	L
17/10	Leicester England League 1	0-1	1-2	7	4	L
10/10	Burton Albion England League 1	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
19/09	Peterborough England League 1	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
12/09	AFC Wimbledon England League 1	0-1	0-1	6	7	L
05/09	Plymouth England League 1	0-1	2-3	7	3	L
01/09	Notts County England League 1	1-0	1-1	4	5	D
29/08	Stevenage England League 1	0-0	2-2	9	3	D
22/08	Barnsley England League 1	0-0	0-0	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Milton Keynes Dons vs Doncaster?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Milton Keynes Dons win (39%). Probabilities: Milton Keynes Dons 39%, draw 28%, Doncaster 34%.

How many goals are expected in Milton Keynes Dons vs Doncaster?

The model expects 2.63 goals (Milton Keynes Dons 1.37 · Doncaster 1.26), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Milton Keynes Dons vs Doncaster?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.