Football · England League 1 · 14/11, 16:00

Prediction: Milton Keynes Dons vs Burton Albion

Team pages: Milton Keynes Dons · Burton Albion

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.09Total

Milton Keynes Dons1.99

Burton Albion1.1

1X2

57% 24% 19%

Milton Keynes Dons Draw Burton Albion

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Milton Keynes Dons 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

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Burton Albion 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Milton Keynes Dons 4–2–0 Burton Albion (6 last)

Burton Albion0-0Milton Keynes Dons
Milton Keynes Dons1-1Burton Albion
Burton Albion0-1Milton Keynes Dons
Milton Keynes Dons1-0Burton Albion
Burton Albion1-2Milton Keynes Dons
Burton Albion1-2Milton Keynes Dons

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Milton Keynes Dons 1543 · Burton Albion 1498

	Milton Keynes Dons	Draw	Burton Albion
Our model	57%	23%	19%
Market	57%	24%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 3.09 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Milton Keynes Dons (rating 1543 vs 1498).
H2H favours Milton Keynes Dons: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Milton Keynes Dons	Burton Albion
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.7	1 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.3	2.8 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0	3.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.61

X3.90

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.80

2 (+0.75)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.05

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 10:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.61▲	Pinn 1.69 ★
X	3.90 → 3.90	Pinn 3.99
2	5.00 → 4.75▼	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 8.6% Pinnacle margin 5.7%

Time*	1	X	2
00:26 +4’	1.57	3.90	5.00
10:00 +23’	1.61▲	3.90	4.75▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:34 +416’	1.61	4.18	5.01
09:15 +12’	1.69▲	3.99▼	4.62▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Milton Keynes Dons 4–2–0 Burton Albion

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/05/23 England League 1	Burton Albion	0-0 HT 0-0	Milton Keynes Dons
03/12/22 England League 1	Milton Keynes Dons	1-1 HT 0-1	Burton Albion
25/01/22 England League 1	Burton Albion	0-1 HT 0-0	Milton Keynes Dons
20/11/21 England League 1	Milton Keynes Dons	1-0 HT 0-0	Burton Albion
31/08/21 England EFL Trophy	Burton Albion	1-2 HT 0-0	Milton Keynes Dons
20/03/21 England League 1	Burton Albion	1-2 HT 0-1	Milton Keynes Dons

Standings · England League 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Huddersfield	14	8	5	1	28	12	29
2	Stockport	14	8	2	4	26	14	26
3	Oxford Utd	13	7	5	1	22	11	26
4	Luton	14	7	3	4	27	21	24
5	Plymouth	14	7	2	5	21	19	23
6	Reading	14	6	4	4	25	15	22
7	Bradford	13	6	4	3	10	8	22
8	Cambridge Utd	14	5	6	3	21	21	21
9	Sheff Wed	13	5	5	3	22	14	20
10	Leicester	13	5	4	4	22	19	19
11	Mansfield	13	5	4	4	20	18	19
12	Milton Keynes Dons	13	4	6	3	22	20	18
13	Wycombe	13	4	6	3	21	23	18
14	Leyton Orient	13	5	2	6	19	14	17
15	Burton Albion	14	4	5	5	18	21	17
16	Stevenage	12	4	4	4	17	13	16
17	Notts County	12	3	5	4	13	14	14
18	AFC Wimbledon	13	3	4	6	9	21	13
19	Blackpool	12	3	3	6	17	21	12
20	Doncaster	13	3	3	7	14	22	12
21	Wigan	14	3	2	9	11	22	11
22	Peterborough	13	2	4	7	11	23	10
23	Barnsley	12	2	3	7	12	22	9
24	Bromley	13	2	3	8	13	33	9

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Milton Keynes Dons	Burton Albion
Doncaster	6-1 W	0-1 L
Peterborough	1-1 D	2-2 D
Wycombe	3-3 D	0-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 0 L	0 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Milton Keynes Dons (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Milton Keynes Dons

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Doncaster England League 1	2-0	6-1	4	5	W
27/10	Bromley England League 1	1-1	4-1	7	3	W
24/10	Stevenage England League 1	0-0	1-0	9	5	W
20/10	Blackpool England League 1	0-0	0-2	4	4	L
17/10	Luton England League 1	1-0	2-1	5	2	W
10/10	Reading England League 1	0-1	1-5	2	2	L
17/09	AFC Wimbledon England League 1	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
12/09	Peterborough England League 1	1-0	1-1	6	2	D
05/09	Wycombe England League 1	0-2	3-3	5	3	D
02/09	Wigan England League 1	0-1	1-3	5	4	L

Burton Albion

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Wycombe England League 1	0-1	0-2	5	3	L
24/10	Leyton Orient England League 1	0-1	2-1	9	1	W
20/10	Bradford England League 1	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
17/10	Peterborough England League 1	1-1	2-2	4	3	D
10/10	Doncaster England League 1	0-1	0-1	12	5	L
03/10	Huddersfield England League 1	1-2	1-3	1	2	L
26/09	Plymouth England League 1	0-0	1-0	4	6	W
19/09	Mansfield England League 1	2-1	2-2	4	6	D
12/09	Oxford Utd England League 1	0-0	0-3	5	2	L
05/09	Cambridge Utd England League 1	1-1	2-2	2	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Milton Keynes Dons vs Burton Albion?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Milton Keynes Dons win (57%). Probabilities: Milton Keynes Dons 57%, draw 24%, Burton Albion 19%.

How many goals are expected in Milton Keynes Dons vs Burton Albion?

The model expects 3.09 goals (Milton Keynes Dons 1.99 · Burton Albion 1.1), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Milton Keynes Dons vs Burton Albion?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.