Football · England League 1 · 21/11, 16:00

Prediction: Mansfield vs Milton Keynes Dons

Team pages: Mansfield · Milton Keynes Dons

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.34Total

Mansfield1.71

Milton Keynes Dons1.62

1X2

39% 26% 35%

Mansfield Draw Milton Keynes Dons

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Mansfield 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LLDDWDWWLD

Milton Keynes Dons 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DDDLWLWWWW

Head-to-head

Mansfield 1–2–2 Milton Keynes Dons (5 last)

Milton Keynes Dons1-4Mansfield
Mansfield1-2Milton Keynes Dons
Milton Keynes Dons1-0Mansfield
Mansfield1-1Milton Keynes Dons
Mansfield1-1Milton Keynes Dons

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Mansfield 1495 · Milton Keynes Dons 1570

	Mansfield	Draw	Milton Keynes Dons
Our model	39%	25%	36%
Market	39%	26%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 3.34 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Milton Keynes Dons (rating 1495 vs 1570).
H2H favours Milton Keynes Dons: 2-2-1.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Mansfield	Milton Keynes Dons
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.3	2.4 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1	0.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 5.4	2.1 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.3	3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.35

X3.50

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.82

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 32.02

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 15:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.35▼	Pinn 2.38
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.78 ★
2	2.45 → 2.60▲	Pinn 2.72

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 9.6% Pinnacle margin 5.2%

Time*	1	X	2
00:05 +20’	2.50	3.50	2.45
14:43 +21’	2.35▼	3.50	2.60▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:25 +1’	2.38	3.78	2.72

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Mansfield 1–2–2 Milton Keynes Dons

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/04/24 England League 2	Milton Keynes Dons	1-4 HT 1-1	Mansfield
05/03/24 England League 2	Mansfield	1-2 HT 1-1	Milton Keynes Dons
04/05/19 England League 2	Milton Keynes Dons	1-0 HT 1-0	Mansfield
27/10/18 England League 2	Mansfield	1-1 HT 1-1	Milton Keynes Dons
21/07/15 Club Friendly List	Mansfield	1-1 HT 1-0	Milton Keynes Dons

Standings · England League 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Huddersfield	14	8	5	1	28	12	29
2	Stockport	15	9	2	4	29	15	29
3	Oxford Utd	13	7	5	1	22	11	26
4	Luton	14	7	3	4	27	21	24
5	Sheff Wed	14	6	5	3	25	14	23
6	Plymouth	15	7	2	6	21	22	23
7	Reading	15	6	4	5	26	18	22
8	Bradford	13	6	4	3	10	8	22
9	Milton Keynes Dons	14	5	6	3	28	22	21
10	Cambridge Utd	14	5	6	3	21	21	21
11	Leicester	13	5	4	4	22	19	19
12	Mansfield	13	5	4	4	20	18	19
13	Wycombe	13	4	6	3	21	23	18
14	Leyton Orient	13	5	2	6	19	14	17
15	Burton Albion	15	4	5	6	20	27	17
16	Stevenage	12	4	4	4	17	13	16
17	AFC Wimbledon	14	4	4	6	10	21	16
18	Notts County	12	3	5	4	13	14	14
19	Wigan	15	4	2	9	13	23	14
20	Blackpool	13	3	3	7	17	22	12
21	Doncaster	13	3	3	7	14	22	12
22	Peterborough	13	2	4	7	11	23	10
23	Barnsley	13	2	3	8	13	24	9
24	Bromley	13	2	3	8	13	33	9

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Mansfield	Milton Keynes Dons
Blackpool	4-1 W	0-2 L
AFC Wimbledon	3-0 W	0-0 D
Bromley	2-1 W	4-1 W
Burton Albion	2-2 D	6-2 W
Reading	0-5 L	1-5 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Milton Keynes Dons (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Mansfield

LLDDWDWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/11	Wigan England League 1	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
31/10	Notts County England League 1	0-1	0-2	9	4	L
24/10	Blackpool England League 1	1-1	4-1	7	3	W
20/10	AFC Wimbledon England League 1	2-0	3-0	6	3	W
15/10	Oxford Utd England League 1	0-1	1-1	11	6	D
10/10	Bromley England League 1	1-1	2-1	7	7	W
19/09	Burton Albion England League 1	1-2	2-2	5	6	D
12/09	Huddersfield England League 1	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
05/09	Bradford England League 1	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
02/09	Reading England League 1	0-3	0-5	2	1	L

Milton Keynes Dons

DDDLWLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/11	Burton Albion England League 1	2-0	6-2	4	1	W
31/10	Doncaster England League 1	2-0	6-1	4	5	W
27/10	Bromley England League 1	1-1	4-1	7	3	W
24/10	Stevenage England League 1	0-0	1-0	9	5	W
20/10	Blackpool England League 1	0-0	0-2	4	4	L
17/10	Luton England League 1	1-0	2-1	5	2	W
10/10	Reading England League 1	0-1	1-5	2	2	L
17/09	AFC Wimbledon England League 1	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
12/09	Peterborough England League 1	1-0	1-1	6	2	D
05/09	Wycombe England League 1	0-2	3-3	5	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Mansfield vs Milton Keynes Dons?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Mansfield win (39%). Probabilities: Mansfield 39%, draw 26%, Milton Keynes Dons 35%.

How many goals are expected in Mansfield vs Milton Keynes Dons?

The model expects 3.34 goals (Mansfield 1.71 · Milton Keynes Dons 1.62), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Mansfield vs Milton Keynes Dons?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.