Football · England League 1 · 21/11, 16:00

Prediction: Leyton Orient vs AFC Wimbledon

Team pages: Leyton Orient · AFC Wimbledon

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.72Total

Leyton Orient1.66

AFC Wimbledon1.05

1X2

51% 26% 23%

Leyton Orient Draw AFC Wimbledon

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Leyton Orient 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WDLWLDWLLW

AFC Wimbledon 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WWDDLLLDLW

Head-to-head

Leyton Orient 3–1–2 AFC Wimbledon (6 last)

Leyton Orient1-1AFC Wimbledon
AFC Wimbledon2-4Leyton Orient
Leyton Orient1-3AFC Wimbledon
Leyton Orient1-0AFC Wimbledon
AFC Wimbledon2-0Leyton Orient
Leyton Orient2-0AFC Wimbledon

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Leyton Orient 1499 · AFC Wimbledon 1459

	Leyton Orient	Draw	AFC Wimbledon
Our model	50%	27%	23%
Market	51%	25%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.72 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Leyton Orient (rating 1499 vs 1459).
H2H favours Leyton Orient: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Leyton Orient	AFC Wimbledon
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 0.9	0.8 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.3	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 3.8	1.8 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0	3.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.60

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Pinn 1.81
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 4.22 ★
2	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9% Pinnacle margin 5.7%

Time*	1	X	2
23:42 +44’	1.80	3.60	3.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:25 +1’	1.81	4.24	3.74
01:16 +7’	1.81▲	4.22▼	3.73▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Leyton Orient 3–1–2 AFC Wimbledon

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/08/26 England EFL Trophy	Leyton Orient	1-1 HT 0-1	AFC Wimbledon
17/03/26 England League 1	AFC Wimbledon	2-4 HT 2-1	Leyton Orient
01/01/26 England League 1	Leyton Orient	1-3 HT 1-1	AFC Wimbledon
04/02/23 England League 2	Leyton Orient	1-0 HT 0-0	AFC Wimbledon
08/11/22 England League 2	AFC Wimbledon	2-0 HT 2-0	Leyton Orient
06/10/20 England EFL Trophy	Leyton Orient	2-0 HT 1-0	AFC Wimbledon

Standings · England League 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Huddersfield	14	8	5	1	28	12	29
2	Stockport	15	9	2	4	29	15	29
3	Oxford Utd	13	7	5	1	22	11	26
4	Luton	14	7	3	4	27	21	24
5	Sheff Wed	14	6	5	3	25	14	23
6	Plymouth	15	7	2	6	21	22	23
7	Reading	15	6	4	5	26	18	22
8	Bradford	13	6	4	3	10	8	22
9	Milton Keynes Dons	14	5	6	3	28	22	21
10	Cambridge Utd	14	5	6	3	21	21	21
11	Leicester	13	5	4	4	22	19	19
12	Mansfield	13	5	4	4	20	18	19
13	Wycombe	13	4	6	3	21	23	18
14	Leyton Orient	13	5	2	6	19	14	17
15	Burton Albion	15	4	5	6	20	27	17
16	Stevenage	12	4	4	4	17	13	16
17	AFC Wimbledon	14	4	4	6	10	21	16
18	Notts County	12	3	5	4	13	14	14
19	Wigan	15	4	2	9	13	23	14
20	Blackpool	13	3	3	7	17	22	12
21	Doncaster	13	3	3	7	14	22	12
22	Peterborough	13	2	4	7	11	23	10
23	Barnsley	13	2	3	8	13	24	9
24	Bromley	13	2	3	8	13	33	9

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Leyton Orient	AFC Wimbledon
Cambridge Utd	3-0 W	1-1 D
Blackpool	2-0 W	1-0 W
Plymouth	0-2 L	1-2 L
Wycombe	2-3 L	1-1 D
Bromley	5-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Leyton Orient (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Leyton Orient

WDLWLDWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Cambridge Utd England League 1	1-0	3-0	4	4	W
24/10	Burton Albion England League 1	1-0	1-2	4	1	L
21/10	Reading England League 1	0-0	0-1	6	3	L
17/10	Blackpool England League 1	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
10/10	Bradford England League 1	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
03/10	Plymouth England League 1	0-0	0-2	4	4	L
19/09	Stevenage England League 1	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
12/09	Wycombe England League 1	1-2	2-3	6	3	L
05/09	Luton England League 1	1-1	1-1	2	6	D
01/09	Bromley England League 1	1-0	5-0	4	5	W

AFC Wimbledon

WWDDLLLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/11	Blackpool England League 1	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
31/10	Stockport England League 1	0-0	1-2	4	2	L
24/10	Wycombe England League 1	1-0	1-1	7	1	D
20/10	Mansfield England League 1	0-2	0-3	9	3	L
17/10	Sheff Wed England League 1	0-3	0-5	4	3	L
10/10	Plymouth England League 1	1-1	1-2	9	1	L
26/09	Cambridge Utd England League 1	1-0	1-1	1	4	D
17/09	Milton Keynes Dons England League 1	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
12/09	Doncaster England League 1	1-0	1-0	6	7	W
07/09	Bromley England League 1	1-0	2-0	4	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Leyton Orient vs AFC Wimbledon?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Leyton Orient win (51%). Probabilities: Leyton Orient 51%, draw 26%, AFC Wimbledon 23%.

How many goals are expected in Leyton Orient vs AFC Wimbledon?

The model expects 2.72 goals (Leyton Orient 1.66 · AFC Wimbledon 1.05), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Leyton Orient vs AFC Wimbledon?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.