Football · England League 1 · 14/11, 16:00
Prediction: Wigan vs Barnsley
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.99Total
Wigan1.54
Barnsley1.45
1X2
Wigan
Draw
Barnsley
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Wigan
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Barnsley
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Wigan
1–5–0
Barnsley
(6 last)
- Barnsley1-1Wigan
- Barnsley1-1Wigan
- Wigan1-1Barnsley
- Wigan1-1Barnsley
- Barnsley0-1Wigan
- Wigan1-1Barnsley
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Wigan 1506 · Barnsley 1442
| Wigan | Draw | Barnsley | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 27% | 35% |
| Market | 39% | 26% | 35% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.99 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Wigan (rating 1506 vs 1442).
- High corners: 12.1 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 10.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Wigan | Barnsley | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.6 / 1.5 | 1.2 / 2.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.8 | 0.6 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/60/40% | 50/20/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 4.6 | 3.2 / 7.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.6 / 0.1 | 4.8 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Wigan 1–5–0 Barnsley
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/26 England EFL Cup | Barnsley | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Wigan |
| 17/03/26 England League 1 | Barnsley | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Wigan |
| 01/01/26 England League 1 | Wigan | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Barnsley |
| 29/03/25 England League 1 | Wigan | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Barnsley |
| 23/11/24 England League 1 | Barnsley | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Wigan |
| 13/08/24 England EFL Cup | Wigan | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Barnsley |
Standings · England League 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Huddersfield | 14 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 28 | 12 | 29 |
| 2 | Stockport | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 26 | 14 | 26 |
| 3 | Oxford Utd | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 22 | 11 | 26 |
| 4 | Luton | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 27 | 21 | 24 |
| 5 | Plymouth | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 21 | 19 | 23 |
| 6 | Reading | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 25 | 15 | 22 |
| 7 | Bradford | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 8 | 22 |
| 8 | Cambridge Utd | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 21 | 21 | 21 |
| 9 | Sheff Wed | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 22 | 14 | 20 |
| 10 | Leicester | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 19 | 19 |
| 11 | Mansfield | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 20 | 18 | 19 |
| 12 | Milton Keynes Dons | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 22 | 20 | 18 |
| 13 | Wycombe | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 21 | 23 | 18 |
| 14 | Leyton Orient | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 19 | 14 | 17 |
| 15 | Burton Albion | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 18 | 21 | 17 |
| 16 | Stevenage | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 13 | 16 |
| 17 | Notts County | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 14 | 14 |
| 18 | AFC Wimbledon | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 21 | 13 |
| 19 | Blackpool | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 21 | 12 |
| 20 | Doncaster | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 22 | 12 |
| 21 | Wigan | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 11 | 22 | 11 |
| 22 | Peterborough | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 23 | 10 |
| 23 | Barnsley | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 22 | 9 |
| 24 | Bromley | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 33 | 9 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Wigan | Barnsley |
|---|---|---|
| Leicester | 0-3 L | 1-1 D |
| Oxford Utd | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Reading | 1-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Stevenage | 0-1 L | 1-5 L |
| Stockport | 0-4 L | 1-3 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 4 L | 0 W 2 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Barnsley (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Wigan
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11 | Mansfield England League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 31/10 | Bromley England League 1 |
2-2 | 3-2 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 27/10 | Leicester England League 1 |
0-1 | 0-3 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 24/10 | Huddersfield England League 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 20/10 | Oxford Utd England League 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 17/10 | Reading England League 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 10/10 | Stevenage England League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 19/09 | Wycombe England League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 12/09 | Sheff Wed England League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 05/09 | Stockport England League 1 |
0-3 | 0-4 | 6 | 3 | L |
Barnsley
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Oxford Utd England League 1 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 24/10 | Reading England League 1 |
1-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 20/10 | Luton England League 1 |
0-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 17/10 | Cambridge Utd England League 1 |
1-0 | 1-2 | 11 | 7 | L |
| 10/10 | Stockport England League 1 |
1-0 | 1-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 19/09 | Leicester England League 1 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 9 | D |
| 12/09 | Plymouth England League 1 |
0-2 | 0-3 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 05/09 | Stevenage England League 1 |
1-1 | 1-5 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 02/09 | Blackpool England League 1 |
0-0 | 2-1 | 13 | 7 | W |
| 29/08 | Leyton Orient England League 1 |
1-0 | 3-1 | 10 | 8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Wigan vs Barnsley?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Wigan win (39%). Probabilities: Wigan 39%, draw 26%, Barnsley 35%.
How many goals are expected in Wigan vs Barnsley?
The model expects 2.99 goals (Wigan 1.54 · Barnsley 1.45), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Wigan vs Barnsley?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.