Football · Colombia Primera A · 30/08, 03:30
Prediction: Alianza vs Atletico Nacional Medellin
Team pages: Alianza · Atletico Nacional Medellin
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.39Total
Alianza0.93
Atletico Nacional Medellin1.45
1X2
Alianza
Draw
Atletico Nacional Medellin
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Alianza
1-4-5 (W-D-L)
Atletico Nacional Medellin
8-0-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Alianza
1–1–4
Atletico Nacional Medellin
(6 last)
- Atletico Nacional Medellin3-0Alianza
- Atletico Nacional Medellin3-0Alianza
- Alianza3-2Atletico Nacional Medellin
- Atletico Nacional Medellin2-1Alianza
- Alianza1-1Atletico Nacional Medellin
- Alianza0-2Atletico Nacional Medellin
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alianza 1449 · Atletico Nacional Medellin 1594
| Alianza | Draw | Atletico Nacional Medellin | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 23% | 29% | 48% |
| Market | 24% | 28% | 49% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.39 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico Nacional Medellin (rating 1449 vs 1594).
- H2H favours Atletico Nacional Medellin: 4-1-1.
- High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 10.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Alianza | Atletico Nacional Medellin | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.4 | 2.1 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.5 | 0.7 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 4.1 | 3.5 / 6.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.6 / 0.1 | 4.7 / 0.6 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alianza 1–1–4 Atletico Nacional Medellin
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/02/26 Colombia Primera A | Atletico Nacional Medellin | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Alianza |
| 08/08/25 Colombia Primera A | Atletico Nacional Medellin | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Alianza |
| 23/02/25 Colombia Primera A | Alianza | 3-2 HT 2-1 | Atletico Nacional Medellin |
| 20/09/24 Colombia Cup | Atletico Nacional Medellin | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Alianza |
| 17/09/24 Colombia Cup | Alianza | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Atletico Nacional Medellin |
| 18/07/24 Colombia Primera A | Alianza | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Atletico Nacional Medellin |
Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | America de Cali | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 2 | 16 |
| 2 | Llaneros | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 11 |
| 3 | Millonarios | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 10 |
| 4 | Deportes Tolima | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | Atletico Nacional Medellin | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 9 |
| 6 | Independiente Medellin | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 9 |
| 7 | Atletico Bucaramanga | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 9 |
| 8 | Aguilas Doradas | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 8 |
| 9 | Cucuta Deportivo | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 8 |
| 10 | Deportivo Cali | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 7 |
| 11 | Once Caldas | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 6 |
| 12 | Fortaleza CEIF | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 6 |
| 13 | Independiente Santa Fe | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
| 14 | Internacional de Bogota | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 |
| 15 | Jaguares de Cordoba | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 4 |
| 16 | Deportivo Pereira | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| 17 | Alianza | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 2 |
| 18 | Junior | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 1 |
| 19 | Boyaca Chico | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 1 |
| 20 | Deportivo Pasto | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Alianza | Atletico Nacional Medellin |
|---|---|---|
| Deportes Tolima | 1-2 L | 3-1 W |
| Fortaleza CEIF | 1-1 D | 2-1 W |
| Internacional de Bogota | 1-2 L | 7-1 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 2 L | 3 W 0 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Atletico Nacional Medellin (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alianza
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/08 | Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 11 | L |
| 22/08 | Deportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 09/08 | Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Primera A |
1-2 | 2-3 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 01/08 | Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 27/07 | Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 03/05 | Millonarios Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 27/04 | Llaneros Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 19/04 | Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 8 | L |
| 13/04 | Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 06/04 | Deportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A |
2-0 | 3-2 | 5 | 5 | W |
Atletico Nacional Medellin
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/08 | Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 23/08 | Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 10/08 | America de Cali Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 13 | 7 | L |
| 02/08 | Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A |
3-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 09/06 | Junior Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 13 | 6 | W |
| 03/06 | Junior Colombia Primera A |
0-2 | 0-3 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 24/05 | Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 17/05 | Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 13/05 | Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A |
2-1 | 7-1 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 09/05 | Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alianza vs Atletico Nacional Medellin?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Atletico Nacional Medellin win (48%). Probabilities: Alianza 23%, draw 28%, Atletico Nacional Medellin 48%.
How many goals are expected in Alianza vs Atletico Nacional Medellin?
The model expects 2.39 goals (Alianza 0.93 · Atletico Nacional Medellin 1.45), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Alianza vs Atletico Nacional Medellin?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.