Football · Colombia Primera A · 30/08, 21:00

Prediction: Aguilas Doradas vs Boyaca Chico

Team pages: Aguilas Doradas · Boyaca Chico

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.6Total

Aguilas Doradas1.8

Boyaca Chico0.8

1X2

60% 25% 15%

Aguilas Doradas Draw Boyaca Chico

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-0 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Aguilas Doradas 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWLLDWWWDD

Boyaca Chico 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WLWLLWLLLD

Head-to-head

Aguilas Doradas 3–1–2 Boyaca Chico (6 last)

Boyaca Chico0-1Aguilas Doradas
Aguilas Doradas2-0Boyaca Chico
Boyaca Chico1-1Aguilas Doradas
Aguilas Doradas0-1Boyaca Chico
Aguilas Doradas1-0Boyaca Chico
Boyaca Chico2-1Aguilas Doradas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Aguilas Doradas 1533 · Boyaca Chico 1450

	Aguilas Doradas	Draw	Boyaca Chico
Our model	60%	25%	15%
Market	60%	25%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 2.6 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Aguilas Doradas (rating 1533 vs 1450).
H2H favours Aguilas Doradas: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 10.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Aguilas Doradas	Boyaca Chico
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.7	0.5 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	0.1 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.9	2.6 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.7 / 0.4	5.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.57

X3.80

26.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.75

2 (+0.75)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.95

Under 2.251.85

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 04:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.57	Pinn 1.59 ★
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	5.75 → 6.25▲	Bet365 6.25

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 6% Pinnacle margin 7%

Time*	1	X	2
18:27 +4’	1.57	3.80	5.75
00:06 +3’	1.57	3.80	5.50▼
04:36 +11’	1.57	3.80	6.25▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:42	1.58	3.57	5.96
00:38 +1’	1.59▲	3.61▲	6.09▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Aguilas Doradas 3–1–2 Boyaca Chico

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/02/26 Colombia Primera A	Boyaca Chico	0-1 HT 0-0	Aguilas Doradas
17/08/25 Colombia Primera A	Aguilas Doradas	2-0 HT 0-0	Boyaca Chico
01/03/25 Colombia Primera A	Boyaca Chico	1-1 HT 1-1	Aguilas Doradas
11/11/24 Colombia Primera A	Aguilas Doradas	0-1 HT 0-1	Boyaca Chico
03/10/24 Colombia Cup	Aguilas Doradas	1-0 HT 1-0	Boyaca Chico
19/09/24 Colombia Cup	Boyaca Chico	2-1 HT 1-0	Aguilas Doradas

Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	America de Cali	6	5	1	0	15	2	16
2	Llaneros	6	3	2	1	7	5	11
3	Millonarios	5	3	1	1	6	2	10
4	Deportes Tolima	5	3	1	1	8	6	10
5	Atletico Nacional Medellin	4	3	0	1	7	3	9
6	Independiente Medellin	4	3	0	1	7	5	9
7	Atletico Bucaramanga	5	2	3	0	6	4	9
8	Aguilas Doradas	4	2	2	0	6	4	8
9	Cucuta Deportivo	6	2	2	2	5	9	8
10	Deportivo Cali	5	2	1	2	7	5	7
11	Once Caldas	5	1	3	1	9	6	6
12	Fortaleza CEIF	6	1	3	2	5	6	6
13	Independiente Santa Fe	4	1	2	1	5	4	5
14	Internacional de Bogota	5	1	2	2	5	7	5
15	Jaguares de Cordoba	5	1	1	3	2	7	4
16	Deportivo Pereira	3	0	2	1	0	1	2
17	Alianza	5	0	2	3	4	7	2
18	Junior	4	0	1	3	4	8	1
19	Boyaca Chico	4	0	1	3	0	10	1
20	Deportivo Pasto	5	0	0	5	3	10	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Aguilas Doradas	Boyaca Chico
Llaneros	1-1 D	3-0 W
Independiente Santa Fe	2-1 W	0-2 L
Independiente Medellin	2-1 W	0-2 L
Fortaleza CEIF	0-2 L	0-0 D
Atletico Bucaramanga	2-1 W	0-5 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Aguilas Doradas (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Aguilas Doradas

LWLLDWWWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Millonarios Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-1	6	10	D
19/08	Llaneros Colombia Primera A	0-1	1-1	5	3	D
01/08	Deportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A	1-1	2-1	6	6	W
26/07	Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A	0-0	2-1	2	5	W
03/05	Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A	1-0	2-1	2	8	W
26/04	Once Caldas Colombia Primera A	0-1	2-2	4	9	D
19/04	Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-2	2	5	L
11/04	Junior Colombia Primera A	0-2	0-3	8	5	L
07/04	Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Primera A	1-0	2-1	1	6	W
01/04	Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A	1-1	1-4	3	4	L

Boyaca Chico

WLWLLWLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/08	Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
21/08	Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-1	11	10	L
08/08	Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-2	0	2	L
03/08	America de Cali Colombia Primera A	0-3	0-7	2	3	L
02/05	Llaneros Colombia Primera A	1-0	3-0	6	3	W
27/04	Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A	0-3	0-4	8	5	L
23/04	Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A	0-2	0-2	3	5	L
17/04	Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
13/04	Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Primera A	0-2	0-5	6	7	L
02/04	Deportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-0	8	9	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Aguilas Doradas vs Boyaca Chico?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Aguilas Doradas win (60%). Probabilities: Aguilas Doradas 60%, draw 25%, Boyaca Chico 15%.

How many goals are expected in Aguilas Doradas vs Boyaca Chico?

The model expects 2.6 goals (Aguilas Doradas 1.8 · Boyaca Chico 0.8), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Aguilas Doradas vs Boyaca Chico?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.