Football · Colombia Primera A · 27/09, 03:20

Prediction: Junior vs Independiente Medellin

Team pages: Junior · Independiente Medellin

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.78Total

Junior1.53

Independiente Medellin1.24

1X2

42% 29% 29%

Junior Draw Independiente Medellin

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Junior 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WLLLDLDDLW

Independiente Medellin 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WLWWWLWWLD

Head-to-head

Junior 1–1–4 Independiente Medellin (6 last)

Independiente Medellin2-0Junior
Independiente Medellin2-1Junior
Junior1-0Independiente Medellin
Independiente Medellin2-2Junior
Independiente Medellin1-0Junior
Junior0-1Independiente Medellin

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Junior 1466 · Independiente Medellin 1553

	Junior	Draw	Independiente Medellin
Our model	43%	27%	30%
Market	42%	30%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.78 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Independiente Medellin (rating 1466 vs 1553).
H2H favours Independiente Medellin: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 11 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Junior	Independiente Medellin
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.5	1.7 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.6	1.9 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6 / 0.6	5 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.10

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.93

2 (+0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9%

Time*	1	X	2
17:05 +7’	2.20	3.10	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Junior 1–1–4 Independiente Medellin

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/03/26 Colombia Primera A	Independiente Medellin	2-0 HT 2-0	Junior
08/12/25 Colombia Primera A	Independiente Medellin	2-1 HT 2-0	Junior
20/11/25 Colombia Primera A	Junior	1-0 HT 1-0	Independiente Medellin
22/09/25 Colombia Primera A	Independiente Medellin	2-2 HT 0-0	Junior
12/06/25 Colombia Primera A	Independiente Medellin	1-0 HT 1-0	Junior
09/06/25 Colombia Primera A	Junior	0-1 HT 0-1	Independiente Medellin

Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	America de Cali	10	6	3	1	21	6	21
2	Millonarios	11	5	4	2	15	8	19
3	Atletico Nacional Medellin	8	6	0	2	17	8	18
4	Atletico Bucaramanga	9	4	5	0	14	8	17
5	Deportes Tolima	10	5	2	3	13	11	17
6	Independiente Santa Fe	9	4	4	1	16	10	16
7	Independiente Medellin	8	5	1	2	15	10	16
8	Deportivo Cali	9	4	3	2	14	8	15
9	Llaneros	10	4	2	4	13	12	14
10	Once Caldas	10	3	3	4	13	12	12
11	Aguilas Doradas	8	2	5	1	12	12	11
12	Internacional de Bogota	11	2	5	4	13	17	11
13	Cucuta Deportivo	10	2	3	5	9	18	9
14	Fortaleza CEIF	10	1	5	4	11	16	8
15	Deportivo Pasto	10	2	2	6	9	15	8
16	Alianza	10	2	2	6	9	20	8
17	Boyaca Chico	9	2	2	5	7	18	8
18	Jaguares de Cordoba	8	1	4	3	9	14	7
19	Deportivo Pereira	8	1	4	3	6	11	7
20	Junior	8	1	3	4	12	14	6

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Junior	Independiente Medellin
Fortaleza CEIF	4-1 W	1-0 W
Deportes Tolima	1-2 L	3-2 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Junior

WLLLDLDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A	2-0	4-1	1	5	W
13/09	Alianza Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-1	6	9	L
06/09	Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A	1-1	3-3	7	6	D
30/08	Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-1	6	4	D
27/08	America de Cali Colombia Primera A	1-1	2-4	2	8	L
24/08	Once Caldas Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-1	4	11	D
02/08	Millonarios Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
26/07	Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A	0-2	1-2	7	3	L
09/06	Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
03/06	Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A	2-0	3-0	6	8	W

Independiente Medellin

WLWWWLWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Primera A	1-2	2-2	8	6	D
13/09	Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A	1-1	1-2	1	5	L
04/09	Deportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A	0-0	3-0	4	6	W
30/08	Llaneros Colombia Primera A	2-1	2-1	2	8	W
23/08	Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-1	6	2	L
05/08	Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A	2-0	3-2	2	5	W
02/08	Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
25/07	Deportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A	2-2	3-2	4	7	W
03/05	Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A	0-1	1-2	10	8	L
26/04	Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-0	6	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Junior vs Independiente Medellin?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Junior win (42%). Probabilities: Junior 42%, draw 29%, Independiente Medellin 29%.

How many goals are expected in Junior vs Independiente Medellin?

The model expects 2.78 goals (Junior 1.53 · Independiente Medellin 1.24), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Junior vs Independiente Medellin?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.