Football · England League 1 · 15/08, 16:00
Prediction: Burton Albion vs Stevenage
Team pages: Burton Albion · Stevenage
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.05Total
Burton Albion1.13
Stevenage0.92
1X2
Burton Albion
Draw
Stevenage
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 66%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Burton Albion
2-5-3 (W-D-L)
Stevenage
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Burton Albion
2–2–2
Stevenage
(6 last)
- Burton Albion0-1Stevenage
- Stevenage2-2Burton Albion
- Stevenage0-1Burton Albion
- Burton Albion0-4Stevenage
- Burton Albion0-0Stevenage
- Stevenage1-2Burton Albion
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Burton Albion 1469 · Stevenage 1528
| Burton Albion | Draw | Stevenage | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 33% | 28% |
| Market | 41% | 30% | 30% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.05 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Stevenage (rating 1469 vs 1528).
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Burton Albion | Stevenage | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 1.1 | 0.7 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.5 | 0.4 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 3.5 | 2.3 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.6 / 0 | 2 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Burton Albion 2–2–2 Stevenage
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/03/26 England League 1 | Burton Albion | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Stevenage |
| 20/12/25 England League 1 | Stevenage | 2-2 HT 0-1 | Burton Albion |
| 18/02/25 England League 1 | Stevenage | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Burton Albion |
| 10/12/24 England EFL Trophy | Burton Albion | 0-4 HT 0-1 | Stevenage |
| 24/08/24 England League 1 | Burton Albion | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Stevenage |
| 13/04/24 England League 1 | Stevenage | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Burton Albion |
Standings · England League 1
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AFC Wimbledon | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Barnsley | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Blackpool | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Bradford | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Bromley | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Burton Albion | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Cambridge Utd | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Doncaster | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Huddersfield | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Leicester | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Leyton Orient | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Luton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Mansfield | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Milton Keynes Dons | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Notts County | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Oxford Utd | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Peterborough | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Plymouth | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Reading | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sheff Wed | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Stevenage | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Stockport | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Wigan | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Wycombe | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Burton Albion
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Blackburn England EFL Cup |
1-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 01/08 | Derby UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 28/07 | Solihull Moors UK Friendlies |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 0 | D |
| 22/07 | Birmingham UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 18/07 | Leicester UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-3 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 11/07 | Alfreton Town UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 02/05 | Leyton Orient England League 1 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 25/04 | Exeter England League 1 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 19/04 | Peterborough England League 1 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 11/04 | AFC Wimbledon England League 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 1 | W |
Stevenage
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08 | Wycombe England EFL Cup |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 01/08 | Colchester UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-0 | 11 | 2 | W |
| 25/07 | Millwall UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 22/07 | West Ham UK Friendlies |
0-2 | 0-5 | 9 | 0 | L |
| 18/07 | FC Andorra Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 13/05 | Stockport England League 1 |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 09/05 | Stockport England League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 02/05 | Wigan England League 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 25/04 | Doncaster England League 1 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 21/04 | Barnsley England League 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Burton Albion vs Stevenage?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Burton Albion win (40%). Probabilities: Burton Albion 40%, draw 31%, Stevenage 29%.
How many goals are expected in Burton Albion vs Stevenage?
The model expects 2.05 goals (Burton Albion 1.13 · Stevenage 0.92), with a 57% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Burton Albion vs Stevenage?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.