Football · England League 1 · 22/08, 16:00
Prediction: Stevenage vs Oxford Utd
Team pages: Stevenage · Oxford Utd
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.51Total
Stevenage1.31
Oxford Utd1.2
1X2
Stevenage
Draw
Oxford Utd
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Stevenage
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Oxford Utd
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Stevenage
1–2–3
Oxford Utd
(6 last)
- Oxford Utd1-1Stevenage
- Stevenage1-3Oxford Utd
- Oxford Utd1-2Stevenage
- Stevenage2-6Oxford Utd
- Oxford Utd1-1Stevenage
- Stevenage1-5Oxford Utd
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Stevenage 1513 · Oxford Utd 1545
| Stevenage | Draw | Oxford Utd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 29% | 33% |
| Market | 39% | 28% | 33% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.51 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Oxford Utd: 3-2-1.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Stevenage | Oxford Utd | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.7 / 1.1 | 1.8 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.5 | 0.7 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4.5 | 2.6 / 5.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2 / 0.1 | 1.9 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Stevenage 1–2–3 Oxford Utd
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/04/24 England League 1 | Oxford Utd | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Stevenage |
| 30/09/23 England League 1 | Stevenage | 1-3 HT 1-1 | Oxford Utd |
| 05/10/21 England EFL Trophy | Oxford Utd | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Stevenage |
| 29/08/17 England EFL Trophy | Stevenage | 2-6 HT 1-2 | Oxford Utd |
| 25/03/16 England League 2 | Oxford Utd | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Stevenage |
| 31/10/15 England League 2 | Stevenage | 1-5 HT 1-2 | Oxford Utd |
Standings · England League 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Huddersfield | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Stockport | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Bradford | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Luton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| 5 | Cambridge Utd | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 6 | Mansfield | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Sheff Wed | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Bromley | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | Milton Keynes Dons | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 9 | Oxford Utd | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 11 | Blackpool | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 11 | Burton Albion | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 11 | Leicester | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 11 | Notts County | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 11 | Stevenage | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 11 | Wycombe | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 17 | Reading | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| 18 | Wigan | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| 19 | Doncaster | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 19 | Leyton Orient | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 21 | Barnsley | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 22 | Plymouth | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 23 | Peterborough | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 24 | AFC Wimbledon | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Stevenage
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Burton Albion England League 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | D |
| 07/08 | Wycombe England EFL Cup |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 01/08 | Colchester UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-0 | 11 | 2 | W |
| 25/07 | Millwall UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 22/07 | West Ham UK Friendlies |
0-2 | 0-5 | 9 | 0 | L |
| 18/07 | FC Andorra Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 13/05 | Stockport England League 1 |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 09/05 | Stockport England League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 02/05 | Wigan England League 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 25/04 | Doncaster England League 1 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
Oxford Utd
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Milton Keynes Dons England League 1 |
1-2 | 2-2 | 8 | 5 | D |
| 08/08 | Leyton Orient England EFL Cup |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 01/08 | Ipswich Elite Club Friendlies |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 01/08 | Ipswich Town XI Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 28/07 | Crawley Town UK Friendlies |
1-1 | 3-1 | 9 | 0 | W |
| 25/07 | Barnet UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 21/07 | Aldershot UK Friendlies |
2-1 | 3-1 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 02/05 | Millwall England Championship |
0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 25/04 | Sheff Wed England Championship |
2-0 | 4-1 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 21/04 | Wrexham England Championship |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Stevenage vs Oxford Utd?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Stevenage win (38%). Probabilities: Stevenage 38%, draw 29%, Oxford Utd 33%.
How many goals are expected in Stevenage vs Oxford Utd?
The model expects 2.51 goals (Stevenage 1.31 · Oxford Utd 1.2), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Oxford Utd?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.