Football · England League 1 · 22/08, 16:00
Prediction: Leicester vs Burton Albion
Team pages: Leicester · Burton Albion
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.59Total
Leicester1.82
Burton Albion0.76
1X2
Leicester
Draw
Burton Albion
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
Leicester
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Burton Albion
1-6-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Leicester
4–1–1
Burton Albion
(6 last)
- Burton Albion0-3Leicester
- Burton Albion0-2Leicester
- Burton Albion0-0Leicester
- Burton Albion1-3Leicester
- Burton Albion2-1Leicester
- Burton Albion1-2Leicester
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Leicester 1563 · Burton Albion 1470
| Leicester | Draw | Burton Albion | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 24% | 14% |
| Market | 63% | 21% | 16% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.59 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Leicester (rating 1563 vs 1470).
- H2H favours Leicester: 4-1-1.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Leicester | Burton Albion | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 0.7 | 0.8 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.1 | 0.5 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/60/0% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.3 / 6.9 | 1.4 / 2.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.5 / 0 | 1.5 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Leicester 4–1–1 Burton Albion
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07/26 UK Friendlies | Burton Albion | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Leicester |
| 09/08/23 England EFL Cup | Burton Albion | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Leicester |
| 24/07/21 Elite Club Friendlies | Burton Albion | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Leicester |
| 29/10/19 England EFL Cup | Burton Albion | 1-3 HT 0-2 | Leicester |
| 01/08/17 Elite Club Friendlies | Burton Albion | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Leicester |
| 28/07/15 Club Friendly List | Burton Albion | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Leicester |
Standings · England League 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Huddersfield | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Stockport | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Bradford | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Luton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| 5 | Cambridge Utd | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 6 | Mansfield | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Sheff Wed | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Bromley | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | Milton Keynes Dons | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 9 | Oxford Utd | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 11 | Blackpool | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 11 | Burton Albion | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 11 | Leicester | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 11 | Notts County | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 11 | Stevenage | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 11 | Wycombe | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 17 | Reading | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| 18 | Wigan | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| 19 | Doncaster | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 19 | Leyton Orient | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 21 | Barnsley | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 22 | Plymouth | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 23 | Peterborough | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 24 | AFC Wimbledon | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Leicester
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Notts County England League 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 08/08 | Northampton England EFL Cup |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 01/08 | Genoa Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-1 | 10 | 2 | L |
| 25/07 | Malaga Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 3-3 | 6 | 1 | D |
| 22/07 | Cadiz Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 18/07 | Burton Albion UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 0 | W |
| 14/07 | Bristol Rovers Club Friendly List |
1-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 11/07 | Northampton Club Friendly List |
3-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 02/05 | Blackburn England Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 11 | 2 | W |
| 24/04 | Millwall England Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
Burton Albion
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Stevenage England League 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 0 | D |
| 08/08 | Blackburn England EFL Cup |
1-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 01/08 | Derby UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 28/07 | Solihull Moors UK Friendlies |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 0 | D |
| 22/07 | Birmingham UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 18/07 | Leicester UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-3 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 11/07 | Alfreton Town UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 02/05 | Leyton Orient England League 1 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 25/04 | Exeter England League 1 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 19/04 | Peterborough England League 1 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Leicester vs Burton Albion?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Leicester win (63%). Probabilities: Leicester 63%, draw 22%, Burton Albion 15%.
How many goals are expected in Leicester vs Burton Albion?
The model expects 2.59 goals (Leicester 1.82 · Burton Albion 0.76), with a 57% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Leicester vs Burton Albion?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.