Football · England League 1 · 15/08, 13:30

Prediction: Notts County vs Leicester

Team pages: Notts County · Leicester

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.34Total

Notts County0.99

Leicester1.35

1X2

27% 29% 44%

Notts County Draw Leicester

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Notts County 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DWDWWLLLDD

Leicester 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DDWWWWWDLW

Head-to-head

Notts County 1–1 Leicester (2 last)

Leicester1-2Notts County
Notts County1-4Leicester

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Notts County 1509 · Leicester 1551

	Notts County	Draw	Leicester
Our model	26%	30%	44%
Market	27%	28%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 2.34 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Leicester (rating 1509 vs 1551).
High corners: 12 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Notts County	Leicester
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 0.9	1.7 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.2	0.7 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.6	3.7 / 7.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0	2.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.40

X3.25

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)2.05

2 (-0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9%

Time*	1	X	2
01:09 +5’	3.40	3.25	2.05

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Notts County 1–0–1 Leicester

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/07/22 Club Friendly List	Leicester	1-2 HT 1-1	Notts County
21/07/18 Elite Club Friendlies	Notts County	1-4 HT 1-2	Leicester

Standings · England League 1

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	AFC Wimbledon	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Barnsley	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Blackpool	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Bradford	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Bromley	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Burton Albion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cambridge Utd	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Doncaster	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Huddersfield	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Leicester	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Leyton Orient	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Luton	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Mansfield	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Milton Keynes Dons	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Notts County	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Oxford Utd	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Peterborough	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Plymouth	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Reading	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sheff Wed	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Stevenage	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Stockport	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wigan	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wycombe	0	0	0	0	0	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Notts County

DWDWWLLLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Burnley England EFL Cup	1-0	1-1	3	3	D
01/08	Walsall UK Friendlies	0-0	0-0	2	0	D
18/07	Nottm Forest Elite Club Friendlies	0-1	0-2	7	0	L
14/07	Randers FC Europe Friendlies	0-1	1-3	8	1	L
11/07	Viborg Europe Friendlies	0-0	0-2	4	5	L
04/07	Alfreton Town UK Friendlies	2-0	5-0	9	0	W
25/05	Salford City England League 2	2-0	3-0	2	4	W
15/05	Chesterfield England League 2	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
10/05	Chesterfield England League 2	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
02/05	Bristol Rovers England League 2	1-0	1-1	5	6	D

Leicester

DDWWWWWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Northampton England EFL Cup	1-0	1-0	7	5	W
01/08	Genoa Europe Friendlies	0-0	0-1	10	2	L
25/07	Malaga Europe Friendlies	1-0	3-3	6	1	D
22/07	Cadiz Europe Friendlies	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
18/07	Burton Albion UK Friendlies	1-0	3-0	9	0	W
14/07	Bristol Rovers Club Friendly List	1-1	2-1	–	–	W
11/07	Northampton Club Friendly List	3-0	3-0	–	–	W
02/05	Blackburn England Championship	0-0	1-0	11	2	W
24/04	Millwall England Championship	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
21/04	Hull England Championship	0-1	2-2	9	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Notts County vs Leicester?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Leicester win (44%). Probabilities: Notts County 27%, draw 29%, Leicester 44%.

How many goals are expected in Notts County vs Leicester?

The model expects 2.34 goals (Notts County 0.99 · Leicester 1.35), with a 55% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Notts County vs Leicester?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.