Football · Japan Women Empowerment League · 01/11, 05:00

Prediction: Cerezo Osaka (W) vs Chifure AS Elfen Saitama (W)

Team pages: Cerezo Osaka (W) · Chifure AS Elfen Saitama (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.4Total

Cerezo Osaka (W)1.42

Chifure AS Elfen Saitama (W)0.98

1X2

47% 27% 26%

Cerezo Osaka (W) Draw Chifure AS Elfen Saitama (W)

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Cerezo Osaka (W) 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

LWDDDWLDWW

Chifure AS Elfen Saitama (W) 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWLWLWDWLL

Head-to-head

Cerezo Osaka (W) 1–3–2 Chifure AS Elfen Saitama (W) (6 last)

Cerezo Osaka (W)2-3Chifure AS Elfen Saitama (W)
Cerezo Osaka (W)1-0Chifure AS Elfen Saitama (W)
Chifure AS Elfen Saitama (W)0-0Cerezo Osaka (W)
Cerezo Osaka (W)0-0Chifure AS Elfen Saitama (W)
Chifure AS Elfen Saitama (W)2-1Cerezo Osaka (W)
Chifure AS Elfen Saitama (W)1-1Cerezo Osaka (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cerezo Osaka (W) 1530 · Chifure AS Elfen Saitama (W) 1504

	Cerezo Osaka (W)	Draw	Chifure AS Elfen Saitama (W)
Our model	46%	29%	25%
Market	48%	26%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.4 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Chifure AS Elfen Saitama (W): 2-3-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cerezo Osaka (W)	Chifure AS Elfen Saitama (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.1	1.2 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.3 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.3	2.2 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.1 / 0	0.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.90

X3.50

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.98

Under 2.251.82

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 17:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.90▲	Pinn 2.31 ★
X	3.40 → 3.50▲	Bet365 3.50
2	3.80 → 3.40▼	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 10.6% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
03:13 +7’	1.80	3.40	3.80
13:14 +13’	1.90▲	3.30▼	3.50▼
16:36 +57’	1.90	3.50▲	3.40▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
06:22 +19’	1.73	3.52	4.47
08:36 +9’	1.93▲	3.25▼	3.86▼
17:22 +11’	2.31▲	3.13▼	2.95▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Cerezo Osaka (W) 1–3–2 Chifure AS Elfen Saitama (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/09/26 Japan League Cup Women	Cerezo Osaka (W)	2-3 HT 1-1	Chifure AS Elfen Saitama (W)
09/11/25 Japan Women Empowerment League	Cerezo Osaka (W)	1-0 HT 1-0	Chifure AS Elfen Saitama (W)
16/08/25 Japan Women Empowerment League	Chifure AS Elfen Saitama (W)	0-0 HT 0-0	Cerezo Osaka (W)
22/03/25 Japan Women Empowerment League	Cerezo Osaka (W)	0-0 HT 0-0	Chifure AS Elfen Saitama (W)
23/11/24 Japan Women Empowerment League	Chifure AS Elfen Saitama (W)	2-1 HT 0-0	Cerezo Osaka (W)
26/10/24 Japan League Cup Women	Chifure AS Elfen Saitama (W)	1-1 HT 0-1	Cerezo Osaka (W)

Standings · Japan Women Empowerment League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Urawa Red Diamonds (W)	6	5	0	1	14	4	15
2	Nippon TV Tokyo Verdy Beleza (W)	6	4	0	2	15	10	12
3	JEF Utd Chiba (W)	6	4	0	2	9	7	12
4	Cerezo Osaka (W)	6	3	2	1	10	7	11
5	INAC Kobe (W)	7	3	1	3	14	13	10
6	Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W)	6	3	0	3	7	7	9
7	Nojima (W)	6	2	2	2	6	11	8
8	Mynavi Sendai (W)	6	2	1	3	9	11	7
9	Chifure AS Elfen Saitama (W)	6	2	1	3	6	8	7
10	Omiya Ardija (W)	6	2	0	4	4	8	6
11	Albirex Niigata (W)	6	1	2	3	5	7	5
12	AC Nagano Parceiro (W)	7	0	3	4	4	10	3

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cerezo Osaka (W)	Chifure AS Elfen Saitama (W)
Nippon TV Tokyo Verdy Beleza (W)	2-1 W	1-4 L
Omiya Ardija (W)	2-1 W	2-0 W
Nojima (W)	2-2 D	0-1 L
Albirex Niigata (W)	1-1 D	1-2 L
AC Nagano Parceiro (W)	1-1 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Cerezo Osaka (W) (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cerezo Osaka (W)

LWDDDWLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/10	Nippon TV Tokyo Verdy Beleza (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	1-0	2-1	4	0	W
25/10	Omiya Ardija (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-0	2-1	7	0	W
18/10	Nojima (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	2-1	2-2	6	1	D
05/09	Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-0	0-1	4	0	L
30/08	JEF Utd Chiba (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	2-0	3-1	3	2	W
23/08	Albirex Niigata (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-1	1-1	10	2	D
16/05	AC Nagano Parceiro (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-1	1-1	0	3	D
10/05	Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-0	0-0	3	0	D
03/05	JEF Utd Chiba (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	1-0	1-0	2	3	W
26/04	Nojima (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-1	0-3	4	0	L

Chifure AS Elfen Saitama (W)

LWLWLWDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Nippon TV Tokyo Verdy Beleza (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-3	1-4	3	1	L
21/10	Mynavi Sendai (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-2	1-2	5	0	L
18/10	Omiya Ardija (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-0	2-0	4	1	W
05/09	AC Nagano Parceiro (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-0	0-0	6	1	D
30/08	INAC Leonessa (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	1-0	2-1	8	1	W
22/08	Nojima (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-1	0-1	6	0	L
16/05	Mynavi Sendai (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-0	3-2	5	1	W
10/05	INAC Leonessa (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-0	0-1	3	0	L
02/05	Nojima (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	1-0	2-1	6	1	W
26/04	Albirex Niigata (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	1-1	1-2	2	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cerezo Osaka (W) vs Chifure AS Elfen Saitama (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Cerezo Osaka (W) win (47%). Probabilities: Cerezo Osaka (W) 47%, draw 27%, Chifure AS Elfen Saitama (W) 26%.

How many goals are expected in Cerezo Osaka (W) vs Chifure AS Elfen Saitama (W)?

The model expects 2.4 goals (Cerezo Osaka (W) 1.42 · Chifure AS Elfen Saitama (W) 0.98), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Cerezo Osaka (W) vs Chifure AS Elfen Saitama (W)?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.