Football · Japan Women Empowerment League · 24/10, 06:00

Prediction: Albirex Niigata (W) vs JEF Utd Chiba (W)

Team pages: Albirex Niigata (W) · JEF Utd Chiba (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.19Total

Albirex Niigata (W)1.32

JEF Utd Chiba (W)0.87

1X2

46% 29% 24%

Albirex Niigata (W) Draw JEF Utd Chiba (W)

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 63% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Albirex Niigata (W) 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DDWDLLDWLD

JEF Utd Chiba (W) 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWLLDWLLWW

Head-to-head

Albirex Niigata (W) 4–1–1 JEF Utd Chiba (W) (6 last)

Albirex Niigata (W)1-0JEF Utd Chiba (W)
JEF Utd Chiba (W)0-1Albirex Niigata (W)
JEF Utd Chiba (W)0-1Albirex Niigata (W)
Albirex Niigata (W)0-1JEF Utd Chiba (W)
Albirex Niigata (W)2-1JEF Utd Chiba (W)
JEF Utd Chiba (W)0-0Albirex Niigata (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Albirex Niigata (W) 1453 · JEF Utd Chiba (W) 1526

	Albirex Niigata (W)	Draw	JEF Utd Chiba (W)
Our model	46%	31%	24%
Market	47%	28%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.19 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours JEF Utd Chiba (W) (rating 1453 vs 1526).
H2H favours Albirex Niigata (W): 4-1-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Albirex Niigata (W)	JEF Utd Chiba (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.3	0.9 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	22/56/22%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 5.1	0.9 / 2.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.3 / 0	1.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.20

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.98

Under 2.251.82

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
05:51 +17’	1.91	3.20	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Albirex Niigata (W) 4–1–1 JEF Utd Chiba (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/11/25 Japan Women Empowerment League	Albirex Niigata (W)	1-0 HT 0-0	JEF Utd Chiba (W)
06/09/25 Japan Women Empowerment League	JEF Utd Chiba (W)	0-1 HT 0-0	Albirex Niigata (W)
11/05/25 Japan Women Empowerment League	JEF Utd Chiba (W)	0-1 HT 0-0	Albirex Niigata (W)
06/10/24 Japan Women Empowerment League	Albirex Niigata (W)	0-1 HT 0-0	JEF Utd Chiba (W)
28/04/24 Japan Women Empowerment League	Albirex Niigata (W)	2-1 HT 1-0	JEF Utd Chiba (W)
20/03/24 Japan Women Empowerment League	JEF Utd Chiba (W)	0-0 HT 0-0	Albirex Niigata (W)

Standings · Japan Women Empowerment League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	INAC Leonessa (W)	5	3	1	1	13	9	10
2	Urawa Red Diamonds (W)	4	3	0	1	10	4	9
3	Nippon TV Tokyo Verdy Beleza (W)	4	3	0	1	10	7	9
4	Chifure AS Elfen Saitama (W)	4	2	1	1	4	2	7
5	Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W)	4	2	0	2	6	5	6
6	JEF Utd Chiba (W)	4	2	0	2	6	6	6
7	Cerezo Osaka (W)	4	1	2	1	6	5	5
8	Albirex Niigata (W)	4	1	2	1	5	5	5
9	Nojima (W)	4	1	1	2	5	11	4
10	Mynavi Sendai (W)	4	1	0	3	7	10	3
11	AC Nagano Parceiro (W)	5	0	3	2	4	8	3
12	Omiya Ardija (W)	4	1	0	3	2	6	3

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Albirex Niigata (W)	JEF Utd Chiba (W)
Omiya Ardija (W)	1-2 L	1-1 D
Mynavi Sendai (W)	3-2 W	2-0 W
Cerezo Osaka (W)	1-1 D	1-3 L
Nippon TV Tokyo Verdy Beleza (W)	1-2 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: JEF Utd Chiba (W) (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Albirex Niigata (W)

DDWDLLDWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	AC Nagano Parceiro (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
05/09	Omiya Ardija (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	1-0	1-2	7	0	L
30/08	Mynavi Sendai (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	1-1	3-2	3	1	W
23/08	Cerezo Osaka (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	1-0	1-1	6	2	D
16/05	Nippon TV Tokyo Verdy Beleza (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-0	1-2	3	1	L
09/05	Nojima (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-2	0-2	1	1	L
02/05	Omiya Ardija (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-0	0-0	8	1	D
26/04	Chifure AS Elfen Saitama (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	1-1	2-1	9	1	W
05/04	Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	1-0	1-1	2	1	D
28/03	AC Nagano Parceiro (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-1	2-2	7	3	D

JEF Utd Chiba (W)

LWLLDWLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Urawa Red Diamonds (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	2-1	2-1	2	0	W
05/09	Mynavi Sendai (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	1-0	2-0	3	0	W
30/08	Cerezo Osaka (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-2	1-3	4	2	L
23/08	Nippon TV Tokyo Verdy Beleza (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	1-1	1-2	2	1	L
16/05	Urawa Red Diamonds (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-0	1-0	3	1	W
10/05	Omiya Ardija (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-0	1-1	1	2	D
03/05	Cerezo Osaka (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-1	0-1	2	3	L
25/04	Nippon TV Tokyo Verdy Beleza (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-0	0-1	1	0	L
05/04	Mynavi Sendai (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	–	1-0	–	–	W
29/03	INAC Leonessa (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-0	0-4	1	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Albirex Niigata (W) vs JEF Utd Chiba (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Albirex Niigata (W) win (46%). Probabilities: Albirex Niigata (W) 46%, draw 29%, JEF Utd Chiba (W) 24%.

How many goals are expected in Albirex Niigata (W) vs JEF Utd Chiba (W)?

The model expects 2.19 goals (Albirex Niigata (W) 1.32 · JEF Utd Chiba (W) 0.87), with a 53% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Albirex Niigata (W) vs JEF Utd Chiba (W)?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.