Football · Colombia Primera A · 12/10, 03:15

Prediction: America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin

Team pages: America de Cali · Independiente Medellin

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.66Total

America de Cali1.7

Independiente Medellin0.96

1X2

54% 27% 20%

America de Cali Draw Independiente Medellin

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

America de Cali 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WWDWDWLDWW

Independiente Medellin 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLWWLDWLDL

Head-to-head

America de Cali 1–3–2 Independiente Medellin (6 last)

Independiente Medellin2-1America de Cali
Independiente Medellin1-1America de Cali
America de Cali2-1Independiente Medellin
Independiente Medellin3-0America de Cali
America de Cali1-1Independiente Medellin
Independiente Medellin1-1America de Cali

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · America de Cali 1554 · Independiente Medellin 1519

	America de Cali	Draw	Independiente Medellin
Our model	54%	26%	20%
Market	54%	27%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.66 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Independiente Medellin: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	America de Cali	Independiente Medellin
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 0.7	1.5 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5	2.3 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.5 / 0.7	5.1 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.50

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.02

2 (+0.75)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 10:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.75	Pinn 1.79 ★
X	3.40 → 3.50▲	Pinn 3.55
2	4.50 → 4.75▲	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (5)

Bet365 margin 6.8% Pinnacle margin 5.7%

Time*	1	X	2
02:08 +3’	1.75	3.40	4.50
20:36 +2’	1.83▲	3.30▼	4.10▼
11:04 +8’	1.80▼	3.40▲	4.33▲
07:14 +7’	1.80	3.50▲	4.50▲
10:18 +3’	1.75▼	3.50	4.75▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:12 +33’	1.88	3.43	4.12
03:59 +72’	1.87▼	3.46▲	4.13▲
00:13 +97’	1.86▼	3.50▲	4.13
10:05 +67’	1.75▼	3.63▲	4.57▲
10:12 +3’	1.76▲	3.57▼	4.57
11:53 +153’	1.77▲	3.51▼	4.58▲
03:15 +4’	1.79▲	3.55▲	4.64▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · America de Cali 1–3–2 Independiente Medellin

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/03/26 Colombia Primera A	Independiente Medellin	2-1 HT 0-1	America de Cali
02/12/25 Colombia Primera A	Independiente Medellin	1-1 HT 1-1	America de Cali
28/11/25 Colombia Primera A	America de Cali	2-1 HT 1-0	Independiente Medellin
14/11/25 Colombia Primera A	Independiente Medellin	3-0 HT 2-0	America de Cali
20/06/25 Colombia Primera A	America de Cali	1-1 HT 1-0	Independiente Medellin
01/06/25 Colombia Primera A	Independiente Medellin	1-1 HT 0-0	America de Cali

Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	America de Cali	12	8	3	1	24	7	27
2	Deportivo Cali	13	7	4	2	20	9	25
3	Atletico Nacional Medellin	11	7	2	2	21	10	23
4	Atletico Bucaramanga	11	6	5	0	20	10	23
5	Millonarios	14	5	7	2	19	12	22
6	Independiente Santa Fe	12	6	4	2	19	12	22
7	Independiente Medellin	12	6	2	4	19	16	20
8	Deportes Tolima	13	5	5	3	15	13	20
9	Once Caldas	13	4	4	5	16	16	16
10	Aguilas Doradas	12	3	6	3	16	17	15
11	Cucuta Deportivo	12	4	3	5	15	19	15
12	Llaneros	13	4	2	7	15	17	14
13	Internacional de Bogota	14	2	8	4	16	20	14
14	Boyaca Chico	11	3	3	5	10	18	12
15	Alianza	13	3	3	7	14	26	12
16	Fortaleza CEIF	13	1	8	4	14	19	11
17	Junior	12	2	4	6	18	22	10
18	Deportivo Pasto	12	2	3	7	9	18	9
19	Deportivo Pereira	12	1	6	5	7	17	9
20	Jaguares de Cordoba	11	1	4	6	11	20	7

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	America de Cali	Independiente Medellin
Llaneros	2-1 W	2-1 W
Deportes Tolima	1-1 D	3-2 W
Jaguares de Cordoba	2-2 D	2-1 W
Junior	4-2 W	0-2 L
Independiente Santa Fe	0-0 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 0 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

America de Cali

WWDWDWLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/10	Llaneros Colombia Primera A	0-1	2-1	4	5	W
24/09	Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A	1-0	1-0	11	7	W
21/09	Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A	1-1	1-1	2	7	D
15/09	Deportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-1	3	8	L
03/09	Alianza Colombia Primera A	2-0	3-0	3	2	W
29/08	Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A	1-2	2-2	13	7	D
27/08	Junior Colombia Primera A	1-1	4-2	4	8	W
23/08	Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
10/08	Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-0	2	7	W
06/08	Once Caldas Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-0	5	7	W

Independiente Medellin

WLWWLDWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/10	Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-1	7	9	L
30/09	Millonarios Colombia Primera A	1-2	2-2	2	5	D
27/09	Junior Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-2	6	4	L
23/09	Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A	1-1	2-1	7	6	W
18/09	Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Primera A	1-2	2-2	8	6	D
13/09	Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A	1-1	1-2	1	5	L
04/09	Deportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A	0-0	3-0	4	6	W
30/08	Llaneros Colombia Primera A	2-1	2-1	2	8	W
23/08	Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-1	6	2	L
05/08	Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A	2-0	3-2	2	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin?

According to our model, the most likely result is a America de Cali win (54%). Probabilities: America de Cali 54%, draw 27%, Independiente Medellin 20%.

How many goals are expected in America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin?

The model expects 2.66 goals (America de Cali 1.7 · Independiente Medellin 0.96), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.