Football · England League 2 · 15/08, 16:00
Prediction: Northampton vs Swindon
Team pages: Northampton · Swindon
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.86Total
Northampton1.59
Swindon1.27
1X2
Northampton
Draw
Swindon
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Northampton
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Swindon
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Northampton
2–1–3
Swindon
(6 last)
- Northampton1-2Swindon
- Swindon1-2Northampton
- Swindon5-2Northampton
- Northampton1-1Swindon
- Swindon2-1Northampton
- Northampton2-1Swindon
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Northampton 1450 · Swindon 1497
| Northampton | Draw | Swindon | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 27% | 29% |
| Market | 44% | 27% | 30% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.86 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Swindon (rating 1450 vs 1497).
- H2H favours Swindon: 3-1-2.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Northampton | Swindon | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.8 | 1.7 / 2.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 1.3 | 1.3 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/30/50% | 50/10/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4.1 | 2.9 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.1 / 0.1 | 1.4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Northampton 2–1–3 Swindon
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/12/22 England League 2 | Northampton | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Swindon |
| 01/10/22 England League 2 | Swindon | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Northampton |
| 01/01/22 England League 2 | Swindon | 5-2 HT 1-1 | Northampton |
| 18/09/21 England League 2 | Northampton | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Swindon |
| 27/02/21 England League 1 | Swindon | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Northampton |
| 20/10/20 England League 1 | Northampton | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Swindon |
Standings · England League 2
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | York | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Accrington Stanley | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Barnet | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Bristol Rovers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Cheltenham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Chesterfield | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Colchester | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Crawley Town | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Crewe | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Exeter | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Fleetwood Town | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Gillingham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Grimsby | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Newport County | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Northampton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Oldham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Port Vale | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Rochdale | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Rotherham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Salford City | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Shrewsbury | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Swindon | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Tranmere | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Walsall | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Northampton
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Leicester England EFL Cup |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 01/08 | Solihull Moors UK Friendlies |
2-1 | 4-2 | 10 | 1 | W |
| 28/07 | Cambridge Utd UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | D |
| 25/07 | Birmingham Club Friendly List |
0-2 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 22/07 | Southend UK Friendlies |
2-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 18/07 | Coventry Elite Club Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | D |
| 11/07 | Leicester Club Friendly List |
0-3 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 02/05 | Plymouth England League 1 |
2-2 | 2-3 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 28/04 | Barnsley England League 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 25/04 | Cardiff England League 1 |
0-3 | 1-5 | 2 | 2 | L |
Swindon
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Cardiff England EFL Cup |
1-2 | 2-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 01/08 | Forest Green UK Friendlies |
2-0 | 4-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 28/07 | Leyton Orient UK Friendlies |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 25/07 | Bristol City UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-3 | 7 | 0 | L |
| 18/07 | Crystal Palace Elite Club Friendlies |
1-2 | 1-5 | – | – | L |
| 14/07 | Chippenham Town UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-1 | 10 | 0 | L |
| 04/07 | Swindon Supermarine UK Friendlies |
3-0 | 4-0 | 1 | 0 | W |
| 02/05 | Chesterfield England League 2 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 25/04 | Grimsby England League 2 |
0-3 | 0-4 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 18/04 | Accrington Stanley England League 2 |
2-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Northampton vs Swindon?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Northampton win (44%). Probabilities: Northampton 44%, draw 27%, Swindon 30%.
How many goals are expected in Northampton vs Swindon?
The model expects 2.86 goals (Northampton 1.59 · Swindon 1.27), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Northampton vs Swindon?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.