Football · England League 2 · 15/08, 16:00

Prediction: Grimsby vs Exeter

Team pages: Grimsby

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.78Total

Grimsby1.7

Exeter1.08

1X2

51% 26% 23%

Grimsby Draw Exeter

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Grimsby 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DLWDDWWDWL

Exeter 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LWDDDLLWLD

Head-to-head

Grimsby 2–1–3 Exeter (6 last)

Exeter3-2Grimsby
Grimsby1-4Exeter
Grimsby0-1Exeter
Exeter1-3Grimsby
Exeter1-2Grimsby
Grimsby0-0Exeter

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Grimsby 1578 · Exeter 1493

	Grimsby	Draw	Exeter
Our model	51%	26%	23%
Market	51%	25%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.78 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Grimsby (rating 1578 vs 1493).
H2H favours Exeter: 3-1-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Grimsby	Exeter
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 0.9	1.4 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.4	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.1	2.1 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.3 / 0	2 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.60

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Pinn 1.83
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.74 ★
2	3.90 → 3.90	Pinn 3.95

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9% Pinnacle margin 6.6%

Time*	1	X	2
01:18 +1’	1.80	3.60	3.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:17 +2’	1.83	3.74	3.95

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Grimsby 2–1–3 Exeter

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/04/21 England League 2	Exeter	3-2 HT 1-1	Grimsby
01/12/20 England League 2	Grimsby	1-4 HT 1-3	Exeter
18/01/20 England League 2	Grimsby	0-1 HT 0-0	Exeter
28/09/19 England League 2	Exeter	1-3 HT 0-1	Grimsby
29/12/18 England League 2	Exeter	1-2 HT 0-1	Grimsby
20/10/18 England League 2	Grimsby	0-0 HT 0-0	Exeter

Standings · England League 2

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	York	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Accrington Stanley	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Barnet	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Bristol Rovers	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cheltenham	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Chesterfield	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Colchester	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Crawley Town	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Crewe	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Exeter	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Fleetwood Town	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Gillingham	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Grimsby	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Newport County	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Northampton	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Oldham	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Port Vale	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rochdale	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rotherham	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Salford City	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Shrewsbury	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Swindon	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Tranmere	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Walsall	0	0	0	0	0	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Grimsby

DLWDDWWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Blackpool England EFL Cup	0-1	1-3	13	1	L
01/08	Wigan UK Friendlies	1-0	2-0	0	0	W
29/07	Boston Utd UK Friendlies	0-0	0-0	2	0	D
28/07	Lincoln City UK Friendlies	3-0	5-1	2	0	W
25/07	Hartlepool UK Friendlies	1-0	3-0	7	0	W
18/07	FC Zorya Lugansk Europe Friendlies	1-1	1-1	2	4	D
11/07	Cleethorpes Town Club Friendly List	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
15/05	Salford City England League 2	0-0	2-1	3	2	W
10/05	Salford City England League 2	1-2	1-2	4	4	L
02/05	Tranmere England League 2	1-0	1-1	4	1	D

Exeter

LWDDDLLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Bristol City UK Friendlies	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
31/07	Torquay UK Friendlies	1-2	1-2	5	2	L
25/07	Weston Super Mare UK Friendlies	1-0	2-0	7	0	W
18/07	Truro City UK Friendlies	0-0	0-1	3	1	L
02/05	Bradford England League 1	0-1	1-2	6	4	L
25/04	Burton Albion England League 1	1-0	1-1	1	1	D
18/04	Stockport England League 1	1-2	3-3	4	1	D
11/04	Plymouth England League 1	0-0	2-2	2	6	D
06/04	Doncaster England League 1	1-0	3-0	7	1	W
03/04	Blackpool England League 1	0-1	0-1	10	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Grimsby vs Exeter?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Grimsby win (51%). Probabilities: Grimsby 51%, draw 26%, Exeter 23%.

How many goals are expected in Grimsby vs Exeter?

The model expects 2.78 goals (Grimsby 1.7 · Exeter 1.08), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Grimsby vs Exeter?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.