Football · England League 2 · 15/08, 16:00

Prediction: Crawley Town vs Crewe

Team pages: Crawley Town · Crewe

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.28Total

Crawley Town1.14

Crewe1.14

1X2

35% 30% 35%

Crawley Town Draw Crewe

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Crawley Town 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

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Crewe 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Crawley Town 1–1–4 Crewe (6 last)

Crawley Town0-1Crewe
Crewe1-0Crawley Town
Crawley Town2-0Crewe
Crewe1-0Crawley Town
Crawley Town2-4Crewe
Crawley Town2-2Crewe

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Crawley Town 1454 · Crewe 1516

	Crawley Town	Draw	Crewe
Our model	34%	31%	34%
Market	36%	29%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.28 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Crewe (rating 1454 vs 1516).
H2H favours Crewe: 4-1-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Crawley Town	Crewe
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.3	1.3 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.6	0.3 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4	2.1 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.2 / 0.2	1.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.60

X3.20

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.93

2 (0)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60
X	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.27
2	2.60 → 2.60	Pinn 2.75 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.2% Pinnacle margin 6%

Time*	1	X	2
01:18 +1’	2.60	3.20	2.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:17 +1’	2.56	3.27	2.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Crawley Town 1–1–4 Crewe

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/02/26 England League 2	Crawley Town	0-1 HT 0-0	Crewe
16/08/25 England League 2	Crewe	1-0 HT 1-0	Crawley Town
19/05/24 England League 2	Crawley Town	2-0 HT 1-0	Crewe
10/02/24 England League 2	Crewe	1-0 HT 0-0	Crawley Town
21/10/23 England League 2	Crawley Town	2-4 HT 2-1	Crewe
11/02/23 England League 2	Crawley Town	2-2 HT 1-0	Crewe

Standings · England League 2

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	York	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Accrington Stanley	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Barnet	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Bristol Rovers	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cheltenham	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Chesterfield	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Colchester	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Crawley Town	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Crewe	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Exeter	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Fleetwood Town	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Gillingham	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Grimsby	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Newport County	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Northampton	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Oldham	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Port Vale	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rochdale	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rotherham	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Salford City	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Shrewsbury	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Swindon	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Tranmere	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Walsall	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Crawley Town	Crewe
Accrington Stanley	3-3 D	2-1 W
Grimsby	0-2 L	2-3 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Crewe (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Crawley Town

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Watford England EFL Cup	0-0	0-1	1	5	L
03/08	York England EFL Cup	1-0	2-0	3	7	W
31/07	Reading UK Friendlies	0-0	0-1	6	0	L
28/07	Oxford Utd UK Friendlies	1-1	1-3	6	0	L
25/07	Eastleigh UK Friendlies	1-0	1-0	6	0	W
02/05	Salford City England League 2	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
25/04	Accrington Stanley England League 2	1-1	3-3	3	2	D
18/04	Shrewsbury England League 2	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
11/04	Bristol Rovers England League 2	0-2	1-3	2	2	L
06/04	Grimsby England League 2	0-2	0-2	3	3	L

Crewe

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Accrington Stanley England EFL Cup	1-0	2-1	1	3	W
01/08	Chester UK Friendlies	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
25/07	Birmingham UK Friendlies	1-1	1-2	4	0	L
21/07	AFC Telford UK Friendlies	1-0	3-0	5	0	W
18/07	Stoke UK Friendlies	0-1	1-1	1	1	D
11/07	Witton Albion UK Friendlies	0-0	3-2	10	0	W
02/05	Cambridge Utd England League 2	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
25/04	Chesterfield England League 2	0-1	0-2	3	3	L
18/04	Milton Keynes Dons England League 2	0-2	1-3	3	2	L
11/04	Grimsby England League 2	0-1	2-3	5	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Crawley Town vs Crewe?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Crawley Town win (35%). Probabilities: Crawley Town 35%, draw 30%, Crewe 35%.

How many goals are expected in Crawley Town vs Crewe?

The model expects 2.28 goals (Crawley Town 1.14 · Crewe 1.14), with a 56% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Crewe?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.