Football · England League 2 · 15/08, 16:00

Prediction: Chesterfield vs Fleetwood Town

Team pages: Chesterfield · Fleetwood Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.2Total

Chesterfield1.4

Fleetwood Town0.81

1X2

51% 28% 21%

Chesterfield Draw Fleetwood Town

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-0

Recent form · 10 last

Chesterfield 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDWWLDWDLL

Fleetwood Town 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DDDWWWWDLW

Head-to-head

Chesterfield 1–2–3 Fleetwood Town (6 last)

Fleetwood Town1-0Chesterfield
Fleetwood Town1-1Chesterfield
Chesterfield1-1Fleetwood Town
Chesterfield3-0Fleetwood Town
Fleetwood Town2-0Chesterfield
Fleetwood Town2-0Chesterfield

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Chesterfield 1514 · Fleetwood Town 1554

	Chesterfield	Draw	Fleetwood Town
Our model	50%	30%	20%
Market	51%	26%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 2.2 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fleetwood Town (rating 1514 vs 1554).
H2H favours Fleetwood Town: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 4.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Chesterfield	Fleetwood Town
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 0.8	1.7 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.9	2.6 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.1	1.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.50

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Pinn 1.83 ★
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	4.20 → 4.20	Pinn 4.23

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.9% Pinnacle margin 6.8%

Time*	1	X	2
01:18	1.80	3.50	4.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:17 +1’	1.83	3.50	4.23

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Chesterfield 1–2–3 Fleetwood Town

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/08/26 England EFL Cup	Fleetwood Town	1-0 HT 1-0	Chesterfield
18/04/26 England League 2	Fleetwood Town	1-1 HT 0-0	Chesterfield
18/10/25 England League 2	Chesterfield	1-1 HT 1-1	Fleetwood Town
12/04/25 England League 2	Chesterfield	3-0 HT 0-0	Fleetwood Town
26/12/24 England League 2	Fleetwood Town	2-0 HT 1-0	Chesterfield
05/12/17 England EFL Trophy	Fleetwood Town	2-0 HT 1-0	Chesterfield

Standings · England League 2

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	York	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Accrington Stanley	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Barnet	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Bristol Rovers	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cheltenham	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Chesterfield	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Colchester	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Crawley Town	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Crewe	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Exeter	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Fleetwood Town	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Gillingham	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Grimsby	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Newport County	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Northampton	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Oldham	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Port Vale	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rochdale	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rotherham	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Salford City	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Shrewsbury	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Swindon	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Tranmere	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Walsall	0	0	0	0	0	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Chesterfield

WDWWLDWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Fleetwood Town England EFL Cup	0-1	0-1	9	5	L
14/07	Halifax UK Friendlies	0-1	2-3	2	0	L
11/07	Sheff Utd UK Friendlies	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
04/07	Clay Cross Town FC Club Friendly List	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
15/05	Notts County England League 2	0-0	0-0	8	2	D
10/05	Notts County England League 2	0-1	0-1	3	5	L
02/05	Swindon England League 2	1-1	2-1	3	5	W
25/04	Crewe England League 2	1-0	2-0	0	3	W
18/04	Fleetwood Town England League 2	0-0	1-1	6	1	D
14/04	Grimsby England League 2	2-1	2-1	8	6	W

Fleetwood Town

DDDWWWWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Chesterfield England EFL Cup	1-0	1-0	7	5	W
01/08	Hartlepool UK Friendlies	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
28/07	Bolton UK Friendlies	0-0	1-1	6	0	D
21/07	Huddersfield UK Friendlies	1-1	2-1	7	0	W
18/07	Southport Club Friendly List	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
14/07	Chester UK Friendlies	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
11/07	Bamber Bridge Club Friendly List	1-0	5-0	–	–	W
02/05	Milton Keynes Dons England League 2	1-1	1-1	5	0	D
25/04	Shrewsbury England League 2	1-0	2-2	2	3	D
18/04	Chesterfield England League 2	0-0	1-1	4	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chesterfield vs Fleetwood Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Chesterfield win (51%). Probabilities: Chesterfield 51%, draw 28%, Fleetwood Town 21%.

How many goals are expected in Chesterfield vs Fleetwood Town?

The model expects 2.2 goals (Chesterfield 1.4 · Fleetwood Town 0.81), with a 57% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Chesterfield vs Fleetwood Town?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.