Football · England League 2 · 15/08, 16:00

Prediction: Cheltenham vs Rotherham

Team pages: Cheltenham · Rotherham

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.62Total

Cheltenham1.27

Rotherham1.35

1X2

34% 29% 37%

Cheltenham Draw Rotherham

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Cheltenham 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

DWWWLLLWLL

Rotherham 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DLWDDWLWDL

Head-to-head

Cheltenham 1–2 Rotherham (3 last)

Rotherham1-3Cheltenham
Rotherham1-0Cheltenham
Cheltenham0-2Rotherham

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cheltenham 1465 · Rotherham 1482

	Cheltenham	Draw	Rotherham
Our model	34%	29%	37%
Market	34%	29%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.62 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Rotherham: 2-0-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cheltenham	Rotherham
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.8	1.1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 1	0.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.3	0.9 / 2.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.1 / 0	1.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.20

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.02

2 (0)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70
X	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.24
2	2.45 → 2.45	Pinn 2.64 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.1% Pinnacle margin 6.2%

Time*	1	X	2
01:18	2.70	3.20	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:17 +1’	2.67	3.24	2.64

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Cheltenham 1–0–2 Rotherham

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/11/24 England FA Cup	Rotherham	1-3 HT 1-2	Cheltenham
22/01/22 England League 1	Rotherham	1-0 HT 1-0	Cheltenham
02/10/21 England League 1	Cheltenham	0-2 HT 0-0	Rotherham

Standings · England League 2

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	York	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Accrington Stanley	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Barnet	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Bristol Rovers	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cheltenham	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Chesterfield	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Colchester	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Crawley Town	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Crewe	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Exeter	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Fleetwood Town	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Gillingham	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Grimsby	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Newport County	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Northampton	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Oldham	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Port Vale	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rochdale	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rotherham	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Salford City	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Shrewsbury	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Swindon	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Tranmere	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Walsall	0	0	0	0	0	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Cheltenham

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Charlton England EFL Cup	0-3	1-3	2	1	L
01/08	Milton Keynes Dons UK Friendlies	0-0	0-2	0	1	L
18/07	Evesham United UK Friendlies	1-0	3-0	3	0	W
02/05	Colchester England League 2	0-3	1-4	9	2	L
25/04	Bristol Rovers England League 2	0-2	0-4	7	6	L
21/04	Tranmere England League 2	1-0	1-3	4	1	L
18/04	Newport County England League 2	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
14/04	Gillingham England League 2	0-1	2-1	8	1	W
11/04	Walsall England League 2	0-0	4-0	5	3	W
06/04	Cambridge Utd England League 2	0-1	1-1	3	1	D

Rotherham

DLWDDWLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	West Brom England EFL Cup	0-2	1-4	1	2	L
04/08	Derby UK Friendlies	0-1	1-1	2	3	D
28/07	Darlington 1883 UK Friendlies	2-0	2-0	2	0	W
25/07	Sheff Utd UK Friendlies	0-1	0-2	1	0	L
21/07	Alfreton Town UK Friendlies	1-0	1-0	7	0	W
18/07	Matlock Town UK Friendlies	0-1	1-1	2	0	D
14/07	Emley AFC Club Friendly List	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
10/07	Parkgate Club Friendly List	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
02/05	Wycombe England League 1	2-2	2-3	1	3	L
25/04	Reading England League 1	1-0	1-1	3	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cheltenham vs Rotherham?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Rotherham win (37%). Probabilities: Cheltenham 34%, draw 29%, Rotherham 37%.

How many goals are expected in Cheltenham vs Rotherham?

The model expects 2.62 goals (Cheltenham 1.27 · Rotherham 1.35), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Cheltenham vs Rotherham?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.