Football · England League 2 · 15/08, 13:30
Prediction: Oldham vs Port Vale
Team pages: Oldham · Port Vale
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.51Total
Oldham1.27
Port Vale1.24
1X2
Oldham
Draw
Port Vale
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Oldham
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Port Vale
5-0-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Oldham
2–2–2
Port Vale
(6 last)
- Port Vale3-2Oldham
- Oldham3-2Port Vale
- Port Vale0-0Oldham
- Oldham1-2Port Vale
- Port Vale0-0Oldham
- Port Vale1-4Oldham
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Oldham 1445 · Port Vale 1518
| Oldham | Draw | Port Vale | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 29% | 34% |
| Market | 37% | 29% | 35% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.51 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Port Vale (rating 1445 vs 1518).
- Cards-heavy: 5.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Oldham | Port Vale | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.6 | 1.4 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.7 | 0.8 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 38/25/38% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 4.6 | 1.3 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.3 / 0.2 | 2.9 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Oldham 2–2–2 Port Vale
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/04/22 England League 2 | Port Vale | 3-2 HT 2-2 | Oldham |
| 20/11/21 England League 2 | Oldham | 3-2 HT 1-1 | Port Vale |
| 09/03/21 England League 2 | Port Vale | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Oldham |
| 24/10/20 England League 2 | Oldham | 1-2 HT 0-2 | Port Vale |
| 26/10/19 England League 2 | Port Vale | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Oldham |
| 29/12/18 England League 2 | Port Vale | 1-4 HT 1-1 | Oldham |
Standings · England League 2
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | York | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Accrington Stanley | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Barnet | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Bristol Rovers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Cheltenham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Chesterfield | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Colchester | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Crawley Town | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Crewe | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Exeter | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Fleetwood Town | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Gillingham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Grimsby | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Newport County | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Northampton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Oldham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Port Vale | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Rochdale | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Rotherham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Salford City | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Shrewsbury | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Swindon | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Tranmere | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Walsall | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Oldham
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Stoke England EFL Cup |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 01/08 | Sheff Wed UK Friendlies |
2-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 28/07 | Stockport UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 21/07 | Bolton UK Friendlies |
0-2 | 1-3 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 02/05 | Accrington Stanley England League 2 |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 25/04 | Newport County England League 2 |
2-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 18/04 | Salford City England League 2 |
0-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 14/04 | Barrow England League 2 |
0-0 | 2-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 11/04 | Shrewsbury England League 2 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 06/04 | Milton Keynes Dons England League 2 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 2 | D |
Port Vale
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08 | Wolverhampton England EFL Cup |
0-3 | 0-3 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 01/08 | Blackpool UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 25/07 | Real Murcia Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 9 | W |
| 18/07 | Wigan UK Friendlies |
2-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 14/07 | Newcastle Town Club Friendly List |
0-1 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 14/07 | Tamworth Club Friendly List |
– | 5-0 | – | – | W |
| 11/07 | Kidsgrove Ath Club Friendly List |
– | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 02/05 | Lincoln City England League 1 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 28/04 | Stockport England League 1 |
2-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 25/04 | Plymouth England League 1 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 11 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Oldham vs Port Vale?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Oldham win (36%). Probabilities: Oldham 36%, draw 29%, Port Vale 35%.
How many goals are expected in Oldham vs Port Vale?
The model expects 2.51 goals (Oldham 1.27 · Port Vale 1.24), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Oldham vs Port Vale?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.