Football · England League 2 · 15/08, 13:30

Prediction: Newport County vs Rochdale

Team pages: Newport County · Rochdale

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.98Total

Newport County1.39

Rochdale1.58

1X2

32% 27% 40%

Newport County Draw Rochdale

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Newport County 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLWWWWLLLD

Rochdale 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

WDWDLDDLDL

Head-to-head

Newport County 0–1–3 Rochdale (4 last)

Rochdale1-1Newport County
Newport County0-1Rochdale
Newport County0-2Rochdale
Rochdale3-0Newport County

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Newport County 1505 · Rochdale 1489

	Newport County	Draw	Rochdale
Our model	33%	27%	41%
Market	32%	28%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 2.98 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Rochdale: 3-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Newport County	Rochdale
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.6	1.6 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5.7	1.2 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.2	2.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.90

X3.30

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.82

2 (-0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.05

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.95 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.90 → 2.90	Pinn 3.17 ★
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.3% Pinnacle margin 6.2%

Time*	1	X	2
01:10 +3’	2.90	3.30	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:13	3.17	3.25	2.28

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Newport County 0–1–3 Rochdale

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/01/23 England League 2	Rochdale	1-1 HT 1-0	Newport County
08/10/22 England League 2	Newport County	0-1 HT 0-1	Rochdale
07/05/22 England League 2	Newport County	0-2 HT 0-1	Rochdale
18/12/21 England League 2	Rochdale	3-0 HT 1-0	Newport County

Standings · England League 2

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	York	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Accrington Stanley	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Barnet	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Bristol Rovers	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cheltenham	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Chesterfield	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Colchester	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Crawley Town	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Crewe	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Exeter	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Fleetwood Town	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Gillingham	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Grimsby	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Newport County	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Northampton	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Oldham	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Port Vale	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rochdale	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rotherham	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Salford City	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Shrewsbury	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Swindon	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Tranmere	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Walsall	0	0	0	0	0	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Newport County

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	AFC Wimbledon England EFL Cup	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
04/08	Roma Elite Club Friendlies	0-1	1-4	3	4	L
28/07	Reading UK Friendlies	0-1	0-4	8	5	L
11/07	Gloucester UK Friendlies	1-0	1-2	5	5	L
08/07	Newport City FC UK Friendlies	2-0	5-0	5	0	W
04/07	Bristol Manor Farm Club Friendly List	0-0	3-0	–	–	W
02/05	Barrow England League 2	0-1	2-1	4	3	W
25/04	Oldham England League 2	1-2	3-2	6	5	W
18/04	Cheltenham England League 2	0-0	0-1	7	5	L
11/04	Harrogate Town England League 2	1-1	2-1	8	3	W

Rochdale

WDWDLDDLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Bradford England EFL Cup	0-1	0-2	2	2	L
01/08	Tranmere England EFL Cup	1-1	2-2	3	3	D
28/07	Halifax UK Friendlies	2-2	2-3	2	4	L
25/07	Farnham UK Friendlies	1-1	2-2	8	1	D
19/07	Al-Rayyan SC World Club Friendlies	0-1	3-3	4	0	D
14/07	FC United of Manchester UK Friendlies	0-1	0-2	3	1	L
10/05	Boreham Wood England National League	0-1	2-2	3	2	D
03/05	Scunthorpe England National League	1-0	2-1	5	6	W
25/04	York England National League	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
18/04	Braintree Town England National League	1-0	2-1	3	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Newport County vs Rochdale?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Rochdale win (40%). Probabilities: Newport County 32%, draw 27%, Rochdale 40%.

How many goals are expected in Newport County vs Rochdale?

The model expects 2.98 goals (Newport County 1.39 · Rochdale 1.58), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Newport County vs Rochdale?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.