Football · Bolivia Primera Division · 22/07, 01:00
Prediction: Independiente Petrolero vs Real Potosi
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.71Total
Independiente Petrolero1.7
Real Potosi1.01
1X2
Independiente Petrolero
Draw
Real Potosi
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Independiente Petrolero
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Real Potosi
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Independiente Petrolero
3–1
Real Potosi
(4 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Independiente Petrolero 1443 · Real Potosi 1514
| Independiente Petrolero | Draw | Real Potosi | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 26% | 21% |
| Market | 54% | 24% | 22% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.71 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Real Potosi (rating 1443 vs 1514).
- H2H favours Independiente Petrolero: 3-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Independiente Petrolero | Real Potosi | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 2 | 1.6 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.8 | 0.6 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/30/60% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.5 / 3 | 3.5 / 6.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.6 | 5.1 / 1.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Independiente Petrolero 3–0–1 Real Potosi
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/03/26 America Friendlies | Real Potosi | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Independiente Petrolero |
| 06/03/26 America Friendlies | Independiente Petrolero | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Real Potosi |
| 02/12/21 Bolivia Apertura | Real Potosi | 0-5 HT 0-3 | Independiente Petrolero |
| 04/08/21 Bolivia Apertura | Independiente Petrolero | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Real Potosi |
Standings · Bolivia Primera Division
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Always Ready | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 24 | 5 | 23 |
| 2 | The Strongest | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 15 | 8 | 22 |
| 3 | Bolivar | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 24 | 10 | 18 |
| 4 | Club Aurora | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 16 | 11 | 17 |
| 5 | Blooming | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 16 | 11 | 16 |
| 6 | Real Potosi | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 7 | 13 |
| 7 | Nacional Potosi | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 12 |
| 8 | Independiente Petrolero | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 15 | 12 |
| 9 | Academia de Balompie Boliviano | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 23 | 12 |
| 10 | Oriente Petrolero | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 15 | 11 |
| 11 | Real Oruro | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 22 | 11 |
| 12 | Guabira | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 24 | 11 |
| 13 | Universitario De Vinto | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 20 | 10 |
| 14 | San Antonio Bulo Bulo | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 20 | 10 |
| 15 | Real Tomayapo | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 8 |
| 16 | GV San Jose | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 17 | 7 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Independiente Petrolero | Real Potosi |
|---|---|---|
| Academia de Balompie Boliviano | 1-3 L | 3-1 W |
| Real Tomayapo | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| San Antonio Bulo Bulo | 2-2 D | 5-0 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 2 L | 2 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Real Potosi (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Independiente Petrolero
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/07 | Academia de Balompie Boliviano Bolivia Primera Division |
0-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 9 | L |
| 13/07 | Real Tomayapo Bolivia Primera Division |
0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 28/05 | Racing Club Copa Sudamericana |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 21/05 | Botafogo Copa Sudamericana |
0-1 | 0-3 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 14/05 | Blooming Bolivia Primera Division |
0-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 10/05 | Always Ready Bolivia Primera Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 06/05 | Caracas Copa Sudamericana |
0-2 | 2-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 01/05 | San Antonio Bulo Bulo Bolivia Primera Division |
1-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 29/04 | Botafogo Copa Sudamericana |
0-1 | 0-3 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 25/04 | Universitario De Vinto Bolivia Primera Division |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
Real Potosi
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/07 | San Antonio Bulo Bulo Bolivia Primera Division |
2-0 | 5-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 12/07 | Nacional Potosi Bolivia Primera Division |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 7 | D |
| 09/07 | Academia de Balompie Boliviano Bolivia Primera Division |
2-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 10/05 | The Strongest Bolivia Primera Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 9 | D |
| 01/05 | Real Oruro Bolivia Primera Division |
0-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 27/04 | Oriente Petrolero Bolivia Primera Division |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 23/04 | Guabira Bolivia Primera Division |
2-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 14/04 | Real Tomayapo Bolivia Primera Division |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 04/04 | Club Aurora Bolivia Primera Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 09/03 | Independiente Petrolero America Friendlies |
0-1 | 2-1 | 16 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Independiente Petrolero vs Real Potosi?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Independiente Petrolero win (53%). Probabilities: Independiente Petrolero 53%, draw 25%, Real Potosi 22%.
How many goals are expected in Independiente Petrolero vs Real Potosi?
The model expects 2.71 goals (Independiente Petrolero 1.7 · Real Potosi 1.01), with a 57% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Independiente Petrolero vs Real Potosi?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.