Prediction: Tacuarembo vs Cerrito
Expected goals: 2.24 (Tacuarembo 1.14 · Cerrito 1.11). The model gives 36% home, 30% draw, 34% away. Over 2 goals (54%) and both teams to score (51%). Most likely score: 1-1.
Recent form leaves Tacuarembo with 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses over 10 games; Cerrito has piled up 4-4-2 in the same span. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Tacuarembo won 1 and Cerrito 3, with 2 draws.
| Tacuarembo | Draw | Cerrito | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 31% | 34% |
| Market | 36% | 29% | 35% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- H2H favours Cerrito: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 13.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Tacuarembo | Cerrito | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1 | 1.5 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.4 | 0.9 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 33/44/22% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4 | 2.8 / 5.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 6.2 / 0.2 | 7.2 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Tacuarembo 1–2–3 Cerrito
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/03/26 Uruguay Segunda | Tacuarembo | 1-1 | Cerrito |
| 24/08/25 Uruguay Segunda | Cerrito | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Tacuarembo |
| 04/06/25 Uruguay Segunda | Tacuarembo | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Cerrito |
| 16/11/24 Uruguay Segunda | Cerrito | 3-1 HT 2-1 | Tacuarembo |
| 28/07/24 Uruguay Segunda | Tacuarembo | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Cerrito |
| 26/11/23 Uruguay Segunda | Tacuarembo | 0-1 | Cerrito |
Standings · Uruguay Segunda · Segunda Division 2026, Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Fenix Montevideo | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 7 | 11 |
| 2 | Huracan DPA | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 6 | 10 |
| 3 | Uruguay Montevideo | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 9 |
| 4 | Cerrito | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 9 |
| 5 | La Luz | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
| 6 | CA Atenas | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 4 |
| 7 | Tacuarembo | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 3 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Tacuarembo | Cerrito |
|---|---|---|
| CA Atenas | 0-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Paysandu FC | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Huracan DPA | 1-2 L | 2-0 W |
| Uruguay Montevideo | 1-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Club Oriental | 0-2 L | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 3 L | 3 W 2 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Cerrito (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tacuarembo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | CA Atenas Uruguay Segunda |
0-2 | 0-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 20/06 | Paysandu FC Uruguay Segunda |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 14 | W |
| 13/06 | Huracan DPA Uruguay Segunda |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 07/06 | Uruguay Montevideo Uruguay Segunda |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 01/06 | Club Oriental Uruguay Segunda |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 24/05 | Colon FC Uruguay Segunda |
2-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 17/05 | Atletico Fenix Montevideo Uruguay Segunda |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 10/05 | Rentistas Uruguay Segunda |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 26/04 | Uruguay Montevideo Uruguay Segunda |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 18/04 | CA Atenas Uruguay Segunda |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
Cerrito
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Plaza Colonia Uruguay Segunda |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 21/06 | La Luz Uruguay Segunda |
0-1 | 0-2 | 8 | 11 | L |
| 14/06 | CA River Plate Uruguay Segunda |
3-5 | 4-6 | 7 | 8 | L |
| 07/06 | CA Atenas Uruguay Segunda |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 30/05 | Paysandu FC Uruguay Segunda |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 24/05 | Huracan DPA Uruguay Segunda |
2-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 16/05 | Uruguay Montevideo Uruguay Segunda |
1-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 9 | D |
| 10/05 | Club Oriental Uruguay Segunda |
2-1 | 2-2 | 8 | 8 | D |
| 25/04 | Huracan DPA Uruguay Segunda |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 19/04 | La Luz Uruguay Segunda |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tacuarembo vs Cerrito?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Tacuarembo win (36%). Probabilities: Tacuarembo 36%, draw 30%, Cerrito 34%.
How many goals are expected in Tacuarembo vs Cerrito?
The model expects 2.24 goals (Tacuarembo 1.14 · Cerrito 1.11), with a 54% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Tacuarembo vs Cerrito?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.