Prediction: Wellington Phoenix Reserves vs FC Western
Expected goals: 3.27 (Wellington Phoenix Reserves 2.1 · FC Western 1.17). The model gives 59% home, 20% draw, 21% away. Under 3.5 goals (54%) and both teams to score (56%). Most likely score: 1-1.
On recent form, Wellington Phoenix Reserves is 1-3-6 (wins-draws-losses) over its last 10 matches and FC Western 1-1-8 over its own. In their only recent head-to-head meeting the record reads 0 wins for Wellington Phoenix Reserves and 1 for FC Western.
| Wellington Phoenix Reserves | Draw | FC Western | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 23% | 20% |
| Market | 60% | 18% | 22% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Wellington Phoenix Reserves (rating 1450 vs 1399).
- Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Wellington Phoenix Reserves | FC Western | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1.4 | 0.7 / 3.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.9 | 0.4 / 1.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 20/10/70% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.9 / 6.5 | 2.2 / 3.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0 | 2.4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Wellington Phoenix Reserves 0–0–1 FC Western
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/06/26 New Zealand Central League | FC Western | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Wellington Phoenix Reserves |
Standings · New Zealand Central League · Central League 2026
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Napier City Rovers | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 30 | 9 | 29 |
| 2 | Miramar Rangers | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 29 | 10 | 29 |
| 3 | Wellington Olympic | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 33 | 13 | 26 |
| 4 | Western Suburbs | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 21 | 10 | 22 |
| 5 | Upper Hutt City | 12 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 22 | 21 | 18 |
| 6 | Island Bay United | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 19 | 29 | 12 |
| 7 | Petone FC | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 21 | 11 |
| 8 | Wellington Phoenix Reserves | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 14 | 9 |
| 9 | Waterside Karori | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 33 | 8 |
| 10 | FC Western | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 35 | 4 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Wellington Phoenix Reserves | FC Western |
|---|---|---|
| Petone FC | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Waterside Karori | 0-0 D | 0-1 L |
| Island Bay United | 2-2 D | 0-5 L |
| Upper Hutt City | 0-1 L | 1-4 L |
| Wellington Olympic | 1-3 L | 0-4 L |
| Western Suburbs | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| Napier City Rovers | 1-2 L | 1-6 L |
| Miramar Rangers | 0-1 L | 1-3 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 3 D 5 L | 0 W 1 D 7 L |
Better against common opponents: Wellington Phoenix Reserves (7 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Wellington Phoenix Reserves
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Petone FC New Zealand Central League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 20/06 | Waterside Karori New Zealand Central League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 07/06 | FC Western New Zealand Central League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 10 | 0 | L |
| 03/06 | Island Bay United New Zealand Cup |
2-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 23/05 | Upper Hutt City New Zealand Central League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 11 | 4 | L |
| 16/05 | Island Bay United New Zealand Central League |
2-1 | 3-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 09/05 | Wellington Olympic New Zealand Central League |
1-2 | 1-3 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 02/05 | Western Suburbs New Zealand Central League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 26/04 | Napier City Rovers New Zealand Central League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 18/04 | Miramar Rangers New Zealand Central League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 6 | L |
FC Western
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Western Suburbs New Zealand Central League |
0-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 21/06 | Petone FC New Zealand Central League |
0-0 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 07/06 | Wellington Phoenix Reserves New Zealand Central League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 24/05 | Napier City Rovers New Zealand Central League |
1-0 | 1-6 | – | – | L |
| 17/05 | Upper Hutt City New Zealand Central League |
1-2 | 1-4 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 10/05 | Miramar Rangers New Zealand Central League |
0-2 | 1-3 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 03/05 | Island Bay United New Zealand Central League |
0-5 | 0-5 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 25/04 | Waterside Karori New Zealand Central League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 19/04 | Wellington Olympic New Zealand Central League |
0-2 | 0-4 | – | – | L |
| 11/04 | Petone FC New Zealand Central League |
0-1 | 0-5 | – | – | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Wellington Phoenix Reserves vs FC Western?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Wellington Phoenix Reserves win (59%). Probabilities: Wellington Phoenix Reserves 59%, draw 20%, FC Western 21%.
How many goals are expected in Wellington Phoenix Reserves vs FC Western?
The model expects 3.27 goals (Wellington Phoenix Reserves 2.1 · FC Western 1.17), with a 54% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Wellington Phoenix Reserves vs FC Western?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.