Football · Slovenia 2. SNL · 08/08, 17:30

Prediction: NK Jesenice vs Tabor Sezana

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.96Total

NK Jesenice0.9

Tabor Sezana2.05

1X2

15% 21% 63%

NK Jesenice Draw Tabor Sezana

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

0-2

Recent form · 10 last

NK Jesenice 1-0-9 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLWLLL

Tabor Sezana 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

WLLLLLLLWW

Head-to-head

NK Jesenice 0–1–2 Tabor Sezana (3 last)

NK Jesenice2-2Tabor Sezana
Tabor Sezana1-0NK Jesenice
NK Jesenice2-5Tabor Sezana

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Jesenice 1390 · Tabor Sezana 1467

	NK Jesenice	Draw	Tabor Sezana
Our model	15%	22%	63%
Market	16%	21%	64%

Estimated total (ours) 2.96 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tabor Sezana (rating 1390 vs 1467).
H2H favours Tabor Sezana: 2-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Jesenice	Tabor Sezana
Goals for / against (FT)	0.5 / 3.1	1.1 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.5	0.3 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.6	2 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.1	4.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

15.75

X4.33

21.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.88

2 (-1.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.88

Under 2.751.93

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 08:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.00 → 5.75▲	Bet365 5.75
X	4.10 → 4.33▲	Bet365 4.33
2	1.50 → 1.40▼	Pinn 1.45 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.9% Pinnacle margin 12.7%

Time*	1	X	2
17:00 +15’	5.00	4.10	1.50
05:52 +15’	4.33▼	3.90▼	1.60▲
08:43 +6’	5.75▲	4.33▲	1.40▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
06:06 +1’	4.09	3.72	1.63
08:44 +5’	4.94▲	4.02▲	1.48▼
12:37 +9’	5.11▲	4.13▲	1.45▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Jesenice 0–1–2 Tabor Sezana

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/03/26 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Jesenice	2-2 HT 1-2	Tabor Sezana
06/09/25 Slovenia 2. SNL	Tabor Sezana	1-0 HT 0-0	NK Jesenice
16/07/25 Club Friendly List	NK Jesenice	2-5 HT 0-2	Tabor Sezana

Standings · Slovenia 2. SNL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	ND Beltinci	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
2	NK Triglav Kranj	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
3	NK Krka	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
3	NK Bistrica	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
5	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	NK Jesenice	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	NK Bilje	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	ND Dravinja	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	ND Slovan Ljubljana	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	NK Brezice	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Jadran Dekani	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	NK Krsko	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	NK Primorje Ajdovscina	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Tabor Sezana	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	NK Vrhnika	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
16	NK Rudar Velenje	1	0	0	1	0	2	0

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NK Jesenice	Tabor Sezana
NK Rudar Velenje	2-1 W	2-0 W
ND Slovan Ljubljana	0-1 L	1-5 L
NK Triglav Kranj	0-3 L	0-1 L
NK Brinje Grosuplje	1-8 L	2-1 W
ND Beltinci	0-2 L	0-2 L
NK Bilje	0-2 L	1-2 L
NK Nafta 1903	0-2 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 6 L	2 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Tabor Sezana (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

NK Jesenice

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/07	HNK Segesta Club Friendly List	0-6	0-8	1	3	L
23/05	ND Dravinja Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
15/05	NK Krka Slovenia 2. SNL	2-1	2-3	5	3	L
10/05	NK Rudar Velenje Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
07/05	ND Slovan Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-1	6	7	L
30/04	NK Triglav Kranj Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-3	3	3	L
26/04	NK Brinje Grosuplje Slovenia 2. SNL	1-4	1-8	1	2	L
18/04	ND Beltinci Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-2	7	4	L
11/04	NK Bilje Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-2	3	3	L
04/04	NK Nafta 1903 Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-2	3	0	L

Tabor Sezana

WLLLLLLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/07	NK Brinje Grosuplje Europe Friendlies	1-0	2-1	2	2	W
23/05	NK Rudar Velenje Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
17/05	ND Slovan Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	1-5	4	6	L
10/05	NK Triglav Kranj Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-1	3	5	L
06/05	NK Brinje Grosuplje Slovenia 2. SNL	0-2	1-2	4	4	L
02/05	ND Beltinci Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
26/04	NK Bilje Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	1-2	–	–	L
17/04	NK Nafta 1903 Slovenia 2. SNL	0-2	0-2	6	3	L
12/04	NK Bistrica Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-2	5	3	L
03/04	ND Ilirija Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-2	3-2	5	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Jesenice vs Tabor Sezana?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Tabor Sezana win (63%). Probabilities: NK Jesenice 15%, draw 21%, Tabor Sezana 63%.

How many goals are expected in NK Jesenice vs Tabor Sezana?

The model expects 2.96 goals (NK Jesenice 0.9 · Tabor Sezana 2.05), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Jesenice vs Tabor Sezana?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.